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HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:00 pm

What no one is saying is teh duration for god's sake - 12-16 hours of this pounding at our latitude with all the trees with leaves and weakened trees from the drought - IF again IF this were to come tio fruition this board and every weather board will explode.

Watch tomorrow it shows an escape OTS - HAHAHAHA.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:34 pm

@amugs wrote:HOLY SH%################!!
THE GFS JUST ABSOLUTELY ANNIHILATES US - IF  THIS VERIFIES I AM MOVING TO OSHKOSH FOR CHRIST SAKE - WTF??? THIS RUN SIS INSANE !!!

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 MSLP850500300gfs18252
breath mugs breath lol, it is insane.
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:35 pm

GEFS barking at EC hit on ewall too bad tjis wasn't 23 hours out

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:37 pm

mugs and the steady rain we are going to get will also loosen the ground. I am getting more and more intrigued by this potential as GFS has held steadfast for longer than most times it has not been right, i am feeling that the GFS may be close to right. maybe not the 18z, (a little outlandish) did you see high res 914mb!
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:38 pm

GEFS has some hitters

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:38 pm

@amugs wrote:What no one is saying is teh duration for god's sake - 12-16 hours of this pounding at our latitude with all the trees with leaves and weakened trees from the drought - IF again IF this were to come tio fruition this board and every weather board will explode.

Watch tomorrow it shows an escape OTS - HAHAHAHA.

I'd be surprised if it did, i think that path is slowly becoming a gone deal.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:39 pm

This far out i wouldnt expect to see all the GEFS on board, some is a sign that this def needs b watched.
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Post by devsman Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:This far out i wouldnt expect to see all the GEFS on board, some is a sign that this def needs b watched.

What i see is 12 different members with some lows at florida with others in Maine. So much confusion going on with those models. Intrigued but also hesitant at what I see.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:00 pm

0z Hurricane Models
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Rlvmhh
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:13 pm

Scary that every model has this storm
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:16 pm

@Snow88 wrote:0z Hurricane Models
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Rlvmhh
Its beginning to look less likely of this storm going into the gulf. We either have a major east coast landfalling cane anywhere from Florida to Maine or it goes OTS. My gut tells me the Mid-Atlantic northward could be under the gun sometime later next week. That high pressure ridge pressing down keeping  Matthew from escaping NE has me concerned.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:24 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:0z Hurricane Models
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Rlvmhh
Its beginning to look less likely of this storm going into the gulf. We either have a major east coast landfalling cane anywhere from Florida to Maine or it goes OTS. My gut tells me the Mid-Atlantic northward could be under the gun sometime later next week. That high pressure ridge pressing down keeping  Matthew from escaping NE has me concerned.

Someone agrees with me lol, Bernie does not buy the GFS turn so early but even a bit more west could actually b even worse for us.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:46 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Scary that every model has this storm

Thats true, this far out in the winter often not all models have a storm. I did not even think of that. That is a consensus right there to some degree.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:48 pm

Voice of reason.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2016/09/28/tuesday-evening-97l-slow-to-develop-could-bring-tropical-storm-conditions-to-windward-islands-and-southern-caribbean/#comments

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:59 pm

Have not had a chance to look at much, but I saw the GEFS and was impressed by some of the indies. Taking a look at 18z GEFS H5, it appears the GFS has a much stronger trough over the Gulf of Mexico which captures Matthew and takes it north. Since the GFS/GEFS has a stronger system compared to the EURO, it takes a more northerly track making it vulnerable to a capture. The EURO on the other hand also has a capture, but it's later since the storm is slower and further south. The trough is also weaker on the EURO.

Also gotta watch the WAR (west atlantic ridge) and the weakness on its western flank. So, as Scott demonstrated in his write-up, there are different phases the storm has to go through.

1. Determine short range track. Close to South America or further north like GFS shows? All depends on intensity of the system.

2. Location of the weakness in the WAR

3. Potency of the trough over the GOM

Still lots of time for major changes on the models. Would not be surprised if it dissipates on some models, or takes an OTS track with is very much on the table. Pretty much every solution is. We'll know more by Friday. Hang tight for now.

18z GEFS H5 anomalies just to show the stronger system and strong trough over the GOM:

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Gfs-ens_z500aNorm_watl_24

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:01 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:0z Hurricane Models
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Rlvmhh
Its beginning to look less likely of this storm going into the gulf. We either have a major east coast landfalling cane anywhere from Florida to Maine or it goes OTS. My gut tells me the Mid-Atlantic northward could be under the gun sometime later next week. That high pressure ridge pressing down keeping  Matthew from escaping NE has me concerned.

Yea, I would say the Gulf track is less likely too. Steering pattern should halt western movement and turn him north - northeast. But we'll see. Maybe the trough over the GOM dies for some reason Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:08 pm

Frank what are the "Indies" that you just spoke of that interested you? Never heard that term before.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank what are the "Indies" that you just spoke of that interested you? Never heard that term before.

Just a term for individual members.

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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank what are the "Indies" that you just spoke of that interested you? Never heard that term before.

GFS ensemble members
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank what are the "Indies" that you just spoke of that interested you? Never heard that term before.

Just a term for individual members.

Oh individual, duh got it. Will be waiting to see what you have to say come the weekend. its def a touch forecast.
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Post by jake732 Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:22 pm

Frank, if and only if it heads up towards us do u think it'll really be a hurricane still then or be around a tropical storm? I know gfs is showing an all out hurricane but to far out to believe.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:28 pm

@jake732 wrote:Frank, if and only if it heads up towards us do u think it'll really be a hurricane still then or be around a tropical storm?  I know gfs is showing an all out hurricane but to far out to believe.

Depends whether or not there will be a second piece of upper energy phasing into him like the GFS shows. Even without additional energy involved, he has a good chance of maintaining Hurricane strength due to the favorable conditions since a ridge will be over our area at the time.

This is crazy though

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_41

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jake732 wrote:Frank, if and only if it heads up towards us do u think it'll really be a hurricane still then or be around a tropical storm?  I know gfs is showing an all out hurricane but to far out to believe.

Depends whether or not there will be a second piece of upper energy phasing into him like the GFS shows. Even without additional energy involved, he has a good chance of maintaining Hurricane strength due to the favorable conditions since a ridge will be over our area at the time.

This is crazy though

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_41

Yes it has a deja vu feel to it doesnt it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:34 pm

This image does a nice job of showing that the stronger / further north Matthew is, the further west he's likely to track. GFS definitely trending west.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 4 Image.jpeg.ee9e779def19616a14a68501184ccf97

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:43 pm

Does the 18z run seem at all possible in your opinion Frank? It is crazy I will give you that, if you look back u will see me and mugs reactions lol
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