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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 2 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:36 am

gfs still starting at 1000mb.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:38 am

No, look at High Res. It's 966mb

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:45 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:No, look at High Res. It's 966mb
Oh ya right, lol and I was the one that told you where to find it lol, I am as sick as a dog brain not working so well, still 966 is too high but much closer.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:46 am

Its weird that it cannot show the pressure of the winds when its near land or over, i read that it has something to do with the way the parameters of the model image are produced, you think they could change that.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:52 am

Early impression is blah. ULL is dug into NE while 00z had it exiting offshore. Track is closer to EURO than it is 00z GFS.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:58 am

ULL stuck under the ridge. H5 is much different than 00z GFS. Probably will be east of 06z GFS this run. Off to the gym, ciao. 

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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Early impression is blah. ULL is dug into NE while 00z had it exiting offshore. Track is closer to EURO than it is 00z GFS.

It's closer to the 6z GFS
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:14 pm

At 141, trough is really digging.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:19 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/12z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f159.png?1364096147
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Post by hyde345 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:26 pm

This is looking dangerous.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:27 pm

Hearing latest run beset shore is demolished not good
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:28 pm

WOW

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/12z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f189.png?1364096147
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:29 pm

I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:31 pm

12z GFS ended up west of 6z
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:32 pm

Wow 12z GFS!! Right up the coast dayumm, I did not expect that honestly. LI express 1938 very similar, and hazel.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:35 pm

Looks like the ridge powered through the ULL and the storm found a way up the coast. Incredible...

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31

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Post by hyde345 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:36 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!

The last 3 GFS runs have been fairly consistent.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:36 pm

wait...I thought Frank said it was a blah run??? tracking closer to the euro...can someone explain please... Question

forget it I see frank was posting same time as me...can't delete..



Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:36 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 2 Gfs_mslpa_atl_32

You bet your arse this is dangerous for the shores of Del up through NE with tis run.

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Post by amugs Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:38 pm

Peeps just catching up - SROC great write up - next 24-36 hours crucial imo as to where my boy goes - come on he wants to come to pappa - he has and will fight the whole way though - ELI landfall.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 pm

Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse. Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS. So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 pm

958 mb on approach, cant see the pressure on Hi-res after that. This go be a beast, Wouldnt be surprised to see intensity greater than what GFS shows.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:49 pm



Ukie is even further west than the GFS . Right near Florida.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse.  Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS.  So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?

JMAN - we have ALOT of variables on the table to effect the track so we cant just go by what tis model is saying. No alarms sounding until I Frank gives the All Call. Temper the excitement.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:54 pm

Matthew is moving south now haha. 

Honestly, models have no clue. There's many ways for this storm to hit us unfortunately. GFS just showed us how ULL may not mean much if the trough and ridge is strong.

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