HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
What site are you using, tt is stuck at 90 hrs.Sanchize06 wrote:CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
jmanley32 wrote:What site are you using, tt is stuck at 90 hrs.Sanchize06 wrote:CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island
Same site, should be out to 150 haha
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Also worth nothing if the GFS/CMC is right with the timing, we're talking Saturday/Saturday night/Sunday. Only 5 days away...
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
At this point I'm pretty amazed. How can the GFS and EURO be this different? The GFS now has the Canadian on its side, which is a model that has been out to sea last several runs. GFS and CMC show copious amounts of rain and high winds.
CMC
CMC
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Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
UKMET also very far west, hits Florida and takes it up right offshore of the Delmarva. GFS/CMC/UkMet all west
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Wow, UKMET. If EURO is still slow today with a stall in the SW Atlantic, this will officially be the craziest hurricane I've ever tracked.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, UKMET. If EURO is still slow today with a stall in the SW Atlantic, this will officially be the craziest hurricane I've ever tracked.
I concur! Its crazy if the Euro still pulls the same trend. But I also find it hard to believe it will change that drastically to match both these models, maybe it will make subtle changes in the coming days. So where are you at now with confidence? None right lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
The amplification at 500mb on the GFS is night and day compared to the EURO. Notably, the WAR is a monster. No way Matthew and his side piece Martha escape OTS with this look. Even without a capture from the trough.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
MADONNE
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/782943835752062976
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/782943835752062976
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/782943835752062976
WOW! Assuming this is a credible follower? But I can see the WAR is much stronger than was shown just yesterday, I am praying this does not mess up again, but that shows a trend correct? So basically unlikely to change only 5 days out? I cannot believe the euro is so different. What is it doing that the other models are not.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Frank_Wx wrote:The amplification at 500mb on the GFS is night and day compared to the EURO. Notably, the WAR is a monster. No way Matthew and his side piece Martha escape OTS with this look. Even without a capture from the trough.
Euro ironically is erily similar at this time frame Frank. Such a night and day diff though with the trough. So broad on the euro. We will have to see how 12z goes today. Tonight and tomorrow I am goiong to really start looking at the pieces out in the Pac in detail.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Frank_Wx wrote:At this point I'm pretty amazed. How can the GFS and EURO be this different? The GFS now has the Canadian on its side, which is a model that has been out to sea last several runs. GFS and CMC show copious amounts of rain and high winds.
CMC
I apologize if this is a dumb question, but if the WAR is stronger does that have any effect on the incoming trough? In other words, if the WAR is stronger than forecasted does that cause the heights to rise and cause the trough to go more negative?
njwx7- Posts : 5
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
But also He IS moving so slow, to make it here in 5 days or so he would REALLY have to speed up.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
PHASE 3: THE CLIMB??? or THE RECURVE
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Read from the other board that after analyzing the Atlantic ridge early this morning, it showed that it was stronger than what was being depicted by the models. The GFS/CMC/ UKIE adjusted with this new info, I would expect the EURO to follow suit.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
sroc4 wrote:PHASE 3: THE CLIMB??? or THE RECURVE
THE BANGING OUR HEADS AGAINST A WALL
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:sroc4 wrote:PHASE 3: THE CLIMB??? or THE RECURVE
THE BANGING OUR HEADS AGAINST A WALL
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Just wait until you see the NAVGEM. It landfalls southern Fla
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
The 12z GEFS are way west. A lot of big hits with individual members.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Hurricane models coming west as well. 12z GFDL has a landfall on SC/NC boarder and 12z HWRF coming in west so far at hr 90
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:The amplification at 500mb on the GFS is night and day compared to the EURO. Notably, the WAR is a monster. No way Matthew and his side piece Martha escape OTS with this look. Even without a capture from the trough.
Euro ironically is erily similar at this time frame Frank. Such a night and day diff though with the trough. So broad on the euro. We will have to see how 12z goes today. Tonight and tomorrow I am goiong to really start looking at the pieces out in the Pac in detail.
Pshh, not even a +PNA. Look how zonal it looks out there. Somethings gotta give!!!!!!
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
Woah HWRF mega hit!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"
jmanley32 wrote:YIKES!!
He would have to really put the pedal to the metal to get here by Saturday afternoon/evening like that. Is it even possible?
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