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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:41 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island
What site are you using, tt is stuck at 90 hrs.

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island
What site are you using, tt is stuck at 90 hrs.

Same site, should be out to 150 haha

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:45 pm

Also worth nothing if the GFS/CMC is right with the timing, we're talking Saturday/Saturday night/Sunday. Only 5 days away...

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:51 pm

At this point I'm pretty amazed. How can the GFS and EURO be this different? The GFS now has the Canadian on its side, which is a model that has been out to sea last several runs. GFS and CMC show copious amounts of rain and high winds. 

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24


CMC 

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:52 pm

GFS

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_23

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_24

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:58 pm

UKMET also very far west, hits Florida and takes it up right offshore of the Delmarva. GFS/CMC/UkMet all west

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:01 pm

Wow, UKMET. If EURO is still slow today with a stall in the SW Atlantic, this will officially be the craziest hurricane I've ever tracked. 

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, UKMET. If EURO is still slow today with a stall in the SW Atlantic, this will officially be the craziest hurricane I've ever tracked. 

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

I concur! Its crazy if the Euro still pulls the same trend. But I also find it hard to believe it will change that drastically to match both these models, maybe it will make subtle changes in the coming days. So where are you at now with confidence? None right lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:07 pm

The amplification at 500mb on the GFS is night and day compared to the EURO. Notably, the WAR is a monster. No way Matthew and his side piece Martha escape OTS with this look. Even without a capture from the trough. 
 
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_18

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:10 pm

MADONNE 

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/782943835752062976

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE 

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/782943835752062976

WOW! Assuming this is a credible follower? But I can see the WAR is much stronger than was shown just yesterday, I am praying this does not mess up again, but that shows a trend correct? So basically unlikely to change only 5 days out? I cannot believe the euro is so different. What is it doing that the other models are not.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The amplification at 500mb on the GFS is night and day compared to the EURO. Notably, the WAR is a monster. No way Matthew and his side piece Martha escape OTS with this look. Even without a capture from the trough. 
 
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_18


Euro ironically is erily similar at this time frame Frank.  Such a night and day diff though with the trough.  So broad on the euro.  We will have to see how 12z goes today.  Tonight and tomorrow I am goiong to really start looking at the pieces out in the Pac in detail.  
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_6

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Post by njwx7 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At this point I'm pretty amazed. How can the GFS and EURO be this different? The GFS now has the Canadian on its side, which is a model that has been out to sea last several runs. GFS and CMC show copious amounts of rain and high winds. 

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24


CMC 

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22

I apologize if this is a dumb question, but if the WAR is stronger does that have any effect on the incoming trough? In other words, if the WAR is stronger than forecasted does that cause the heights to rise and cause the trough to go more negative?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:18 pm

But also He IS moving so slow, to make it here in 5 days or so he would REALLY have to speed up.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:19 pm

PHASE 3: THE CLIMB??? or THE RECURVE

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:20 pm

Read from the other board that after analyzing the Atlantic ridge early this morning, it showed that it was stronger than what was being depicted by the models. The GFS/CMC/ UKIE adjusted with this new info, I would expect the EURO to follow suit.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:PHASE 3:  THE CLIMB??? or THE RECURVE

THE BANGING OUR HEADS AGAINST A WALL
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:22 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
sroc4 wrote:PHASE 3:  THE CLIMB??? or THE RECURVE

THE BANGING OUR HEADS AGAINST A WALL


lol! lol!

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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:23 pm

Just wait until you see the NAVGEM. It landfalls southern Fla

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Navgem_z500a_eus_15

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:26 pm

The 12z GEFS are way west. A lot of big hits with individual members.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:32 pm

Hurricane models coming west as well. 12z GFDL has a landfall on SC/NC boarder and 12z HWRF coming in west so far at hr 90

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:32 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The amplification at 500mb on the GFS is night and day compared to the EURO. Notably, the WAR is a monster. No way Matthew and his side piece Martha escape OTS with this look. Even without a capture from the trough. 
 
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_18


Euro ironically is erily similar at this time frame Frank.  Such a night and day diff though with the trough.  So broad on the euro.  We will have to see how 12z goes today.  Tonight and tomorrow I am goiong to really start looking at the pieces out in the Pac in detail.  
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_6

Pshh, not even a +PNA. Look how zonal it looks out there. Somethings gotta give!!!!!!

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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:42 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Ecmwf_10
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_pn10
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Ecmwf_11
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Gfs_na10

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:56 pm

Woah HWRF mega hit!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:58 pm

YIKES!!

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Hwrf_m10
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:YIKES!!

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Hwrf_m10

He would have to really put the pedal to the metal to get here by Saturday afternoon/evening like that. Is it even possible?

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:05 pm

HWRF

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Hwrf_ref_14L_41

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 30 Hwrf_ref_14L_42

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