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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:48 pm

Wow, Levi added new graphics and drones to his website. Check them out. So cool!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:49 pm

Dr. Jeff Masters is an awesome Met. Check out this graphic in one of his blogs. He thinks some EPS members have the right idea of coming up the coast.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 IMG_1465.PNG.b427a824569e67e9e3718eaaf3d3347b

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Dr. Jeff Masters is an awesome Met. Check out this graphic in one of his blogs. He thinks some EPS members have the right idea of coming up the coast.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 IMG_1465.PNG.b427a824569e67e9e3718eaaf3d3347b
2 boom right into nyc. Ouch. But that's interesting how could it be that so many are to th east and he believes these are the most likely. Interesting. I Def have learned a lot from track this storm imo.
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Dtone Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Why can't the leave is there no airport to st least try to get as msny people out as possible. It should b free.

Its the poorest country in the western hemisphere. There aren't many countries lining up to take a mass influx of people, and DR historically isn't very welcoming.

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Guest Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:15 pm

I warned a buddy who has family in Haiti back on Thursday about Matthew. With 5 days notice, poor or not, people knew this was a possibility. If I lived there and was the poorest person in Haiti, I would have walked east 15 miles a day , and today would be 50+miles away from the coast. I'm not trying to be totally unreasonable, but it is 2016 and my buddy was able to warn his friends so take your life and that of your family into your own hands and move east.

By the way, in the winter don't we usually complain about/toss the 18z runs?

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Post by Guest Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:17 pm

....The strongest winds only extend out 60 or so miles from the center. Hopefully this saves Haiti complete destruction if it shoots the gap. Rain and mudslides on the other hand Shocked Shocked Shocked

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:34 pm

Levi posted new video, at the very end he says north of the carolinas may have to watch but still very uncertain and more likely to go OTS. Not sure he can make that definitive statement yet but he did leave the possibility on the table, but did not get into it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:49 pm

Man, did we lose so much confidence (well not that we really have any yet, but models today were showing more in the way of a hit) in this storm that no one is here tonight?  Quietest its been since we started the tracking.....
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by pdubz Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:54 pm

eating and watching football. Giants are on so that might be it
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:55 pm

@pdubz wrote:eating and watching football. Giants are on so that might be it
AHHH, yeah not a big sports fan, well i'll be around for GFS at 11:30 if anyone else is.
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:58 pm

11 PM Update: Winds up to 145 mph, pressure still 934mb, movement due north at 7 mph

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:02 pm

cone shifted a little west but time stamps slowed down by 6 hrs...
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 37 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Joe Snow Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@pdubz wrote:eating and watching football. Giants are on so that might be it
AHHH, yeah not a big sports fan, well i'll be around for GFS at 11:30 if anyone else is.

I am right here with you brother J.

I am a Jets fan and they suck, same ole Jets.

Its 0z for me.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:cone shifted a little west but time stamps slowed down by 6 hrs...

Yeah, that ridge is strong and something to look for from the 0z runs is whether or not that weakens a little bit because it's really pushing it far west and slowing it down to where it misses the trough and gets kicked OTS.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:11 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:cone shifted a little west but time stamps slowed down by 6 hrs...

Yeah, that ridge is strong and something to look for from the 0z runs is whether or not that weakens a little bit because it's really pushing it far west and slowing it down to where it misses the trough and gets kicked OTS.

i thought we wanted a strong ridge.
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:14 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:cone shifted a little west but time stamps slowed down by 6 hrs...

Yeah, that ridge is strong and something to look for from the 0z runs is whether or not that weakens a little bit because it's really pushing it far west and slowing it down to where it misses the trough and gets kicked OTS.

Are the picking up any effects of 98L on this.??
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:19 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:cone shifted a little west but time stamps slowed down by 6 hrs...

Yeah, that ridge is strong and something to look for from the 0z runs is whether or not that weakens a little bit because it's really pushing it far west and slowing it down to where it misses the trough and gets kicked OTS.

i thought we wanted a strong ridge.

You want a strong enough ridge where there's no weakness to escape, but if it's too strong and pushes right up against the coastline and slows it down too much, it'll miss the trough capture and the flat trough breaks down the ridge and it escapes that way. The timing really has to be perfect lol

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:25 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:cone shifted a little west but time stamps slowed down by 6 hrs...

Yeah, that ridge is strong and something to look for from the 0z runs is whether or not that weakens a little bit because it's really pushing it far west and slowing it down to where it misses the trough and gets kicked OTS.

Are the picking up any effects of 98L on this.??

To me it doesn't look as if 98L was a result of the ridge breaking down on the 18z run. I mean I could be wrong the low is definitely out there, but I don't think that's why the run went east

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Post by Joe Snow Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:34 pm

GFS has initialized
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:35 pm

Already at hr 24, not much looks to have changed from 18z so far.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:38 pm

Im still here lurking and not sure about what its going to do. If it slows down off the southeast coast like some models show I can still see it slipping OTS. It needs to pick up speed and stay that way to impact our area imo. Models seem to have come west overall today but they will continue to shift the next couple days as we never nail down the storm this early especially with a volitaile setup such as this. I have a busy annoying day coming up so its gonna be tough to keep up with all the runs but Ill try and post when I can. EURO hasnt budged which is frusturating but the CMC did lol. We'll see what 0z brings. Since I last viewed the storm on sat it looks to have weakened slightly due to land interaction and it looks to have picked up speed and moved slightly to the NNE as it was very close if not directly over 75w/15n last night, now it is slightly to the east but much further north.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:39 pm

Hour 36, WAR looks stronger than 18z to me. If this holds true, track into southern FL coast again.

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:42 pm

Looks a little north and quicker at hr 42, though ridge looks stronger so we'll have to see if that pushes it to the coast and slows it down

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:47 pm

Hour 54, slightly north of 18z

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:50 pm

Initial thoughts on the PAC are so so, 12z GFS was better at this point. It phased two shortwave's together which allowed the EPO block to build overtop. Not seeing that yet this run.

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