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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:54 pm

Matthew NW of 18z at hr 72, very close to the coast, that ridge is strong, my guess is it doesn't make it up here, but we'll see...

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by aiannone Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:54 pm

This run is extremely devastating for the east coast of FL. A high end cat 3 or 4 that moves up the coast while strengthening.
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sanchize06 Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:55 pm

Not to mention the trough doesn't looks very good either, a little progessive

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:56 pm

Hour 78, Matt is north of 18z but trough doesn't look too hot. WAR about the same as 18z.

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sanchize06 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:02 am

Just off the Georgia coast at hr 96, trough is even more flat then it was at 18z, really no way it captures it

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:03 am

I find it amazing how he's following the coast

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:03 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_mslp_wind_seus_17

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_mslp_wind_seus_18

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:04 am

PAC is worse than 18z. Would be very surprised if he gets north of NC.

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:07 am

hr 108 landfall...
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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:07 am

Landfall. SC

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_mslp_wind_seus_19

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:09 am

At 108 the PAC is horrific, but since the WAR was able to ease up a bit Matthew is able to track further NW this run. May be trying to catch the trough. Hard to tell.

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:12 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:At 108 the PAC is horrific, but since the WAR was able to ease up a bit Matthew is able to track further NW this run. May be trying to catch the trough. Hard to tell.

Yeah, the fact that it came inland is the only thing giving it a chance at the trough. Going to be close actually, definitely enhanced the rain from the front at the very least

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:12 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_z500_vort_eus_21

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

Running up the coast to Va border so far, crushes the coast and outerbanks

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by aiannone Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 14593310

My god lol. Binghamton Bullseye with the rain lol
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

Looks like it manages to partially capture it at hr 126, go figure

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:13 am

Looks like a just miss. Very close.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:14 am

CMC identical almost.
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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:15 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_ms10
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:15 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like it manages to partially capture it at hr 126, go figure

The Atlantic saved us here. Weaker or further east WAR promoted a northerly motion for Matthew. The trough and PAC flow was worse than 18z but we still managed to get him up here.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:16 am

@aiannone wrote:HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_ms10

Wow. Well, there ya have it. Another solution haha.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:17 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_22

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:17 am

Amazing, so many different dynamics at play, one works the other doesn't which will it be if either. Will we even know until its near the carolinas?
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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:18 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Usa_gu10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 38 Gfs_ms10

Wow. Well, there ya have it. Another solution haha.

Thats damn close, gives us a ton of rain, prolly some wind but not like past models have shown.
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