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October 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:44 pm

Here are the flakes HV and NNJ peeps

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:13 pm

Wow the 0 line is well offshore could we even see flakes in southern areas? That b crazy.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow the 0 line is well offshore could we even see flakes in southern areas? That b crazy.

Most likely only in the higher elevations, temp profiles tok warm near the surface on the coastal plain. I'd say snow would probably be confined to 1000+ feet with this setup, not uncommon for this time of year and also when the 0c line doesnt necessairly mean snow. More important is the last minute trend up in QPF (though it wont put much of a dent in the drought, still likely under an inch for most of us, less near the SE coast and SNJ) and sustained winds progged up to 25mph although I'm skeptical of that verifying considering how it usually goes. It depends on how fast the lows merge and deepen. Watch those meso maps, if the NAVGEM trend is coming true (with a further west storm and faster deepening) then we may see more impacts, but as of now it looks to be forming just a smidge too late to keep us out of most of it. I predict around .5-.75" rain and 10-15mph sustained winds peak. 15-20 at the coast. We'll see! Its not the simplest setup and theyre still waffling unsurprisingly.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 20, 2016 7:52 pm

Euro has wind gusts on the 40 to 60 mph range for a pretty long time but yeah winds do not usually. Play out but who knows.raw rain and wind doesnt sound fun.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:44 am

Downpouring here cold rain
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:05 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Downpouring here cold rain

Wow

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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:17 am

Pouring rain here the last hour
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Downpouring here cold rain

Wow

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bullseye that could lead to some flooding what a training line.
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Post by Dtone Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:26 am

Absolutely pouring. Didnt expect rain this heavy this morning.

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Post by Dtone Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:27 am

That thin line goes down to cape may. I was gonna wait the downpour out, I guess not

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:39 am

Its raining insanely hard and does not look to letup anytime soon, keeps redeveloping over the water to our south, the roads here in the Bronx have raging rivers on both sides and the low lying areas are under water. The heaviest is literall IMBY both at work and home, from NYC, right up entire bx, and southern WC, did not expect this have no umbrella or coat ugg.
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Post by Dtone Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:49 am

No umbrella here either. Walked 5 blocks to car, soaked is an understatement. Rivers indeed outside. Looks enough to flood the bx river pkwy etc but the bx river water level was low to begin with.

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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:49 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Its raining insanely hard and does not look to letup anytime soon, keeps redeveloping over the water to our south, the roads here in the Bronx have raging rivers on both sides and the low lying areas are under water. The heaviest is literall IMBY both at work and home, from NYC, right up entire bx, and southern WC, did not expect this have no umbrella or coat ugg.
An absolute deluge I told my wife there will be a few light showers this morning and steady rain tonight.lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:56 am

@Dtone wrote:No umbrella here either. Walked 5 blocks to car, soaked is an understatement.  Rivers indeed outside.  Looks enough to flood the bx river pkwy etc  but the bx river water level was low to begin with.
Often the BRP floods not because of the river but due to its poor construction, parts of the deegan have low areas with no drainage that I have experienced have major slowdown implications.

Opps Al, LOL well hope she has a umbrella at least, I think mine is actually in my car but in order to get it id have to get wet and I really do not want to sit at work soaked. Dreary Friday. What do we think for tomorrow morning? I guess anything could happen, being we didn't expect this but I was wondering if it was supposed to rain tomorrow. Also hearing winds supposed to pick up in the 40+ mph range later today into tomorrow, wind advisories possible in northern areas, not really sure why they think it will stay below in the area, we will see, likely depends on when they system deepens.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:56 am

It has been raining for almost an hour at JFK 68* I thought most of our rain will happen tonight into tom morning

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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:53 am

Short range models showing a few bands of heavy rain tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening 4 parts of our area.  a general half inch to 2 inches per 4k nam. So Scott I guess the GFS may be wrong after all.lol
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:57 am

The rgem seem to do the best with this strip of rain coming through the New York City metro this morning although underdone. Last night it was showing around a half inch in the areas getting rain today. definitely got more than an inch so far
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 21, 2016 11:33 am

Rgem has widespead snow acc for much of Upstate New York and interior New England. A good start to the snow season for them. They deserve it after what they went through last year
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 21, 2016 11:46 am

South and east again! I'm think I got about an 1.00 will check when I get home
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 21, 2016 11:48 am

In Allendale and it is light rain but go 8 miles to my home and it is moderately/steady raining - this would be a sick winter inverted trough- like Buffalo and LES - speaking of Madonna they are going to get smoked once we flip - Jesus the Lakes are like bath water

Not that we care here but wowza!!!

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:09 pm

Raining heavy now for the last 1/2 hour

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:11 pm

he National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
Putnam County in southeastern New York...
Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* until 245 PM EDT

* at 1239 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Yonkers... Stamford... Norwalk... Danbury... New Rochelle... White
Plains... Port Chester... Ossining... New Canaan... Rye... Tarrytown...
Mount Kisco... Dobbs Ferry... Sherman... Brewster... North Tarrytown...
Mahopac... Lake Carmel... Greenwich and Carmel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams... urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 4166 7349 4149 7344 4151 7339 4104 7342
4105 7344 4102 7355 4099 7357 4101 7360
4099 7363 4099 7361 4097 7363 4098 7365
4095 7368 4089 7384 4090 7387 4091 7388
4149 7391 4153 7353 4167 7352


BC

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:20 pm

Almost an inch of rain and still comeing down

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:40 pm

.45" here so far....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:47 pm

Just getting some rain now, only .07 so far.LOL,do I have to say it AGAIN ( s and e...s and e...) LOL!
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