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October 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by snow247 Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:22 am

GFS wants to give many of us our first snow on Thursday.

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_asnow_neus_19
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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:28 am

Interesting that gfs.Maybe we will see a few flakes fly up here.Not unusual, first flurries in mid to late October.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:21 am

In the Mo Mo I  mentioned the threat for snow those N&W of NYC on Thursday. Last night's GFS shows snow changing to rain.

Here's a couple images (let me know if you can see them).

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_14

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_15


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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:42 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:In the Mo Mo I  mentioned the threat for snow those N&W of NYC on Thursday. Last night's GFS shows snow changing to rain.

Here's a couple images (let me know if you can see them).

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_14

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_15

no frank cant see them
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:52 am

Here you go

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_15.png.818ae62542a1df0070696e81bc528734


October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_14.png.74e14a616ddfa6e40c97098f4880745f

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Post by Quietace Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:In the Mo Mo I  mentioned the threat for snow those N&W of NYC on Thursday. Last night's GFS shows snow changing to rain.

Here's a couple images (let me know if you can see them).

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_14

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_15

Depending on track, could be a significant CAD scenario up here. Especially with 850s so cool on GFS, and 925's maxing only +1 or 2. GFS much more favorable for this rather than Euro due to it cutting primary(or secondary?) low to our west.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:33 pm

HOLY GFS !!!!
Nice CAD signature NNJ through Ace Land - this woudl be a great trend if it were Dec but I'll take it!!

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_asnow_neus_18

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_T850_neus_10

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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 24, 2016 2:54 pm

@amugs wrote:HOLY GFS !!!!
Nice CAD signature NNJ through Ace Land - this woudl be a great trend if it were Dec but I'll take it!!

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_asnow_neus_18

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_T850_neus_10

Im not buying it yet.  Still time to trend but looking briefly at 850's and 925's when the precip moves in it doesnt look like timing is right for any snow south of Albany.  Again alot of time to trend either way though. Loving the fact that we are even discussing it though.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Oct 24, 2016 3:52 pm

I'll tell you what. At about 3:20 pm today the sky overhead got black as night and I got 40-45 mph gusts; really the wind was almost steady. Auntie Em...it's a twister; it's a twister. Trees were dancing and bending and it was blowing hard. All this happened at the time I had to pick up my daughter roadside off the bus. Then after about five minutes or so, nothing happened and the wind died down. Looking north out of my front door...black as can be. Looking south out off the back deck...blue sky and a few white clouds. The wind seems to be picking back up a bit...about 15 mph gusts.

My hairpiece stayed on. Laughing
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 24, 2016 4:32 pm

Boundary layer temps are marginal. Maybe it'll trend colder but doubt it.

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_t925_nyc_14.png.e2be218eed26af9c28550a1074c0b414

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:10 pm

Heck if the HV crew can get some accumulation that would be great they deserve it plus 19 fold.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:52 pm

Scott

Precip moves into KNYC at 78

850 Plus 1
925 Plus 4

BL 43

This is a NW NJ into LHV cold surface coating to an accumulating snow in the HV around I 84 and north.



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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:43 am

For discussion on Thursday's possible snow event for folks north of NYC, use Ray's thread.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:17 pm

Aye Aye Captin' ^^^^^^

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:31 pm

The site was down for several hours. Looks like it's back up and running.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:36 pm

Cold morning incoming peeps
October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Img_2028

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Post by frank 638 Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:47 pm

Perfect night for a fire 47 * with a real feel of 43 * I am ready for winter and franks winter outlook

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:56 am

Coldest morning yet 30° brrr
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Post by frank 638 Wed Oct 26, 2016 5:13 am

A chilly 38* so far at least the winds are calm

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:45 am

31° here no wind thank goodness!

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:20 am

28* at 7:30am. Definitely needed a warmer jacket this morning
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:39 am

31* dittio that neighbor!! WOOP WOOP!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:46 am

2nd day wearing my winter coat, wasn't that way last year : ) Hoping we get into the snow season sooner this year.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 26, 2016 5:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:2nd day wearing my winter coat, wasn't that way last year : ) Hoping we get into the snow season sooner this year.

No winter coat here yet, sticking with sweaters! Going to have to stay in the 30's consistently before I pull mine out.

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Post by Vinnydula Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:37 pm

Temp down to 41. Hope I get to see some flakes
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