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October 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:38 pm

76.6, 66% 29.66F. I will never get used to temps in mid October in the high 70's and low 80's.Just doesn't seem right to have those temps and a lot of trees blazing color like up here.Should be in the high 50's-low 60's now.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:39 pm

80 right now
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Post by frank 638 Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:41 pm

It feels like Aug again 80 with partly sunny I am done with this heat bring on the cold already

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:39 pm

@frank 638 wrote:It feels like Aug again 80 with partly sunny I am done with this heat bring on the cold already
Patience frank its coming
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:54 pm

Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:02 pm

81° here
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:02 pm

Euro shows a big system headed in at 240 hrs. The possible upcoming noreaster does not look like it's coming together. Though the nhc has the area in Atlantic up to 50%.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:25 pm

Models show it getting on the cooler side after this brief warm up. Lets hope this comes to fruition regardless of what becomes of the potential subtropical storm to noreaster threat next week which unfortunately is looking fairly dry despite the drought and potential close pass of LP centers.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101712&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:40 am

00z runs all made a step in the right direction for the phase this weekend. Decent rains now even without full.phase and euro showing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts even as the system depsrts. Man it would b a block buster storm if a full phase happens.
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:38 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.

I agree, the month has been pretty nice. The warm up is really brief followed by high temps next week even this weekend barely getting into the mid 50's. Although we need the rain, I hope Saturday it holds off. I'm trying to go hiking.
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Post by Vinnydula Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:28 pm

Don't mind a little warm up but 80 in Oct is alittle much
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:19 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:Don't mind a little warm up but 80 in Oct is alittle much

As long as its not December 2015 I dont care (shudders)

www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2015/12/18/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Newark&req_state=NJ&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=07101&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

Should be in the 30s within a couple days again, like I said, very brief warm anomalies are not abnormal. Nearly the entire month however, is.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:31 pm

I am loving this October warmth. I went for a nice 8.4-mile bike and a nice 1.4 mile walk this afternoon. Spectacular! Cool

For those of you who are not a fan of the 80s in October I say this: Let's get the unseasonal warmth out of the way now so that we can experience unseasonable cold and snowy December. I would not want a repeat of last December.

Remember, one year ago today, there were flurries across the area with chilly/windy conditions coinciding with Games 1 and 2 of the 2015 NLCS at Citi Field vs the Cubs. The warmth commenced soon after.

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Post by ak926 Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:22 am

Teterboro Airport reached 90 degrees yesterday !

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Post by frank 638 Wed Oct 19, 2016 5:42 am

68 * at 540 in the morning it feels like late July enough already its fall not summer I am ready for the weekend

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:34 am

Something to look to!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101906&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:03 am

It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?
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Post by Dtone Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:24 am

@frank 638 wrote:68 * at 540 in the morning it feels like late July enough already its fall not summer I am ready for the weekend

A low of 71* here. Warm night.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:55 am

@jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?

Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?

Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.

Frank there def looks to be a linkage between the frontal boundary and the subtrop system. Some models have us in the dry slot, but some have it pretty darn close. I could see a scenario, almost an IVT scenario that could end up soaking us if the axis is right.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:42 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.

I agree, the month has been pretty nice. The warm up is really brief followed by high temps next week even this weekend barely getting into the mid 50's. Although we need the rain, I hope Saturday it holds off. I'm trying to go hiking.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:58 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?

Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.

Frank there def looks to be a linkage between the frontal boundary and the subtrop system.  Some models have us in the dry slot, but some have it pretty darn close.  I could see a scenario, almost an IVT scenario that could end up soaking us if the axis is right.  

There looks to be a trough entering the PAC NW forcing the ridge to roll east. Remains a pretty progressive pattern with the lack of blocking. I'll still bet against it for now.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:58 am

Models are back and forth with the axis.

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Namconus_apcpn_neus_26
October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Namconus_apcpn_neus_28

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gem_apcpn_neus_15
October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gem_apcpn_neus_17

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_14
October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_14

October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Ecmwf_22
October 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Ecmwf_21

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:59 am

You are prob right Frank

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Snow88 Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:24 pm

Everything vs the GFS
Models are trending wetter with this system like they did with Matthew.
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