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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" Empty HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:12 am

Last to the Party
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" Ct7KUUpWcAAHK_0

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:18 am

@amugs wrote:^^ Great Post - Euro coming around to GFS idea - I can't believe on twitter and in forums that folks are saying the euro nailed this - I very much disagree

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" Sd.thumb.jpg.9338f5740c3ef2b6c78220d4cda7c7fc

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" UC6.thumb.jpg.1661c0affc5551fb8a6a17c28006e059

ANd I have to say I watched Channels 4 and 5 this morning and they both showed tracks up the coast nothing into NC and then gong due east - THAT in itself is....................

GEFS saying come to Pappa

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22

NOW 12Z - OH BOY

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" 14L_tracks_latest

Giggity....Mugs what u think in terms of impacks cat 1 maybe 2 impacts? At very least strong TS force?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:22 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:21 am

@sroc4 wrote:It is going to be interesting to see the Google earth images of western Haitian peninsula before and after. The geography is likely changing as we speak.
Google earth is not updated very often, like for instance my house has an addition, it doesn't even show it and it shows all the leaves off trees. I think they update every few yrs.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:22 am

@amugs wrote:HOLY POOPPSSSSS!!!

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
961mb (Surface) 275° (from the W) 94 knots (108 mph)
958mb 270° (from the W) 96 knots (110 mph)
954mb 280° (from the W) 88 knots (101 mph)
947mb 280° (from the W) 122 knots (140 mph)
944mb 280° (from the W) 130 knots (150 mph)
936mb 295° (from the WNW) 115 knots (132 mph)
933mb 295° (from the WNW) 120 knots (138 mph)
930mb 290° (from the WNW) 131 knots (151 mph)
913mb 300° (from the WNW) 137 knots (158 mph)
907mb 300° (from the WNW) 134 knots (154 mph)
900mb 310° (from the NW) 140 knots (161 mph)
887mb 315° (from the NW) 132 knots (152 mph)
876mb 315° (from the NW) 141 knots (162 mph)
865mb 315° (from the NW) 120 knots (138 mph)
855mb 320° (from the NW) 120 knots (138 mph)
850mb 325° (from the NW) 115 knots (132 mph)
813mb 325° (from the NW) 91 knots (105 mph)
747mb 320° (from the NW) 96 knots (110 mph)
696mb 310° (from the NW) 82 knots (94 mph)

Wait is that storm pressures? 696mb? Or are those the wind levels?
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Post by dkodgis Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:30 am

Just asking...when might rain start hitting us IF we assume it is going to affect us? This Sat or Sun?
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:31 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:It is going to be interesting to see the Google earth images of western Haitian peninsula before and after. The geography is likely changing as we speak.
 Google earth is not updated very often, like for instance my house has an addition, it doesn't even show it and it shows all the leaves off trees.  I think they update every few yrs.

lol my house still shows a car i had 3 years ago.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:34 am

@RJB8525 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:It is going to be interesting to see the Google earth images of western Haitian peninsula before and after. The geography is likely changing as we speak.
 Google earth is not updated very often, like for instance my house has an addition, it doesn't even show it and it shows all the leaves off trees.  I think they update every few yrs.

lol my house still shows a car i had 3 years ago.

actually at the bottom of the page it says when it was last updated.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:35 am

^^^^ JMAN 876MB - Jesus 696 woudl decimate the whole caribbean through the carolinas

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Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:36 am

Larry Cosgrove


It now appears that most of the Eastern Seaboard of the USA will be affected by Major Hurricane Matthew. now battering Haiti. Matthew will exit the Windward Passage tomorrow and bend to the northwest. Over very warm waters in and about the Bahamas, the powerful storm may again attain Category 5 status. The track scenario shows a close scrape 100 miles east of the FL Atlantic Coast, then a turn inland over the Carolinas (Category 4 strength) before rolling along and to the left of the coastline with abundant wind and rain. It is entirely possible that many communities from eastern Virginia into New York and New England could see a period of damaging winds as the system starts to transition to cold-core type of character.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:38 am

No wind shear as per Levi - once he get over the mountains on Haiti there he will re strengthen and same for the Bahamas

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" Ct7RF5WW8AAP4kQ

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:39 am

@sroc4 wrote:Larry Cosgrove is pretty convinced of the CMC/GFS/UKMET track up the coast with significant impacts likely.  I have def seen him wrong before, but he has been consistent with this idea for several days now.  JB on the other hand buying the east soln of the euro. with minimal impacts.  

LC:
It now appears that most of the Eastern Seaboard of the USA will be affected by Major Hurricane Matthew. now battering Haiti. Matthew will exit the Windward Passage tomorrow and bend to the northwest. Over very warm waters in and about the Bahamas, the powerful storm may again attain Category 5 status. The track scenario shows a close scrape 100 miles east of the FL Atlantic Coast, then a turn inland over the Carolinas (Category 4 strength) before rolling along and to the left of the coastline with abundant wind and rain. It is entirely possible that many communities from eastern Virginia into New York and New England could see a period of damaging winds as the system starts to transition to cold-core type of character.
Much colder air will follow early next week across the Midwest and Northeast.
 

Anthont Touche !!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:43 am

From Ed Vallee on twitter - I know its late timewise but look ta the EC run here

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" Ct7X2k-VYAIyEad

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Post by obsessedwithweather Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:46 am

This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:59 am

@amugs wrote:^^^^ JMAN 876MB - Jesus 696 woudl decimate the whole caribbean through the carolinas

look at bottom one, must be a typo.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:02 am

@obsessedwithweather wrote:This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

Yes this often happens.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:06 am

Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" 2lbz5tz
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:08 am

@obsessedwithweather wrote:This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

Once he gains latitude past cape H and or makes a landfall it will begin to undergo a transformation from warm core to cold core. As a purely tropical system the strongest winds are wound right towards the core;however, once it makes landfall and or undergoes the transformation the winds begin to spread out away from the center. It's def possible by the time it makes it up to us the heaviest winds are 100miles from the center. Exact track will play a large role in definitively answering the question

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Post by obsessedwithweather Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:10 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@obsessedwithweather wrote:This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

Once he gains latitude past cape H and or makes a landfall it will begin to undergo a transformation from warm core to cold core. As a purely tropical system the strongest winds are wound right towards the core;however, once it makes landfall and or undergoes the transformation the winds begin to spread out away from the center. It's def possible by the time it makes it up to us the heaviest winds are 100miles from the center. Exact track will play a large role in definitively answering the question

Thank you for explaining! Smile

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:10 am

@Snow88 wrote:Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" 2lbz5tz
Hazel was BAD up this way. Looks like we may be sounding the horn in the next day or two if these trends continue, I am better 12z Euro comes a bit more west.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:11 am

My wife keeps asking me what day are we thinking, will this likely not go past Monday? It would be great to be able to be home since I am off on Monday and Tuesday.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:27 am

Looking at the 12z hurricane model suite, I don't know how bad the impacts would actually be with the western tracks, other than rain and gusty winds. Here's why: if those tracks were to verify, especially something like the UKMET where it is really over land, that would really work to spin down the storm. In other words, weaken it. Something else to consider, is with a track like that, that is implying that it becomes embedded in the southwesterly flow of the trough as it moves east. Ok, fine. However, the trough is not nearly deep enough to fully capture the system and phase the two, so in my mind (take that for what little it's worth, as I swear I can hear the last few remaining screws rattling around in there from time to time lol) the system would really start shearing out and becoming disorganized. Therefore, it would look good in Virginia, for example, but by the time it would get up here would basically be a shield of rain with winds on the front side ahead of the front. Then, once the front swings through that would be it. I don't know, but there is still another day or so of runs before I accept any one solution. There's still way too much inconsistency for me to take anything to be a definitive trend or track.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:43 am

FWIW 12z NAM has shifted further east with this thing compared to 00z lmfao it was landfalling in Florida like the UK, now it's a good 100 miles offshore ahaha God that model.......although I guess it's about as good as any have been this last week lmfao

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:14 am

New NHC cone 11am, oh boy...still a hurricane and progged be in the area sunday morning. And we have TS Nicole to watch too, don't think anything will come of her.

11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 4
Location: 18.9°N 74.3°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" 11am_c10



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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:17 am

Hurricane and Trop Storm watches hoisted in FL
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 am

90 MPH hurricane at the point off our coast, that's nothing to mess with.
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