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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 5 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:20 pm

18z guidance, further S and E.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_18z.png
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:23 pm

As Ive said before I dont think we'll have a solid idea on where its going until its about off the US coast near the Bahamas/Florida which means about a day or twos notice depending on where it goes. Not much buzz about it right now besides in the Carolinas southward obviously. Which I understand, no need to jump the gun and cause a complacency issue next time if this misses and there is a real dangerous threat and people wont listen like Sandy.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:25 pm

The Euro ensembles have a ton making landfall on FL. WOW
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Will have a 7pm update


THANKS FRANK..hope you are having a good day at work!!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The Euro ensembles have a ton making landfall on FL. WOW

Which likely causes an OTS soln after NC.. Man Im gonna be pissed if I wasted all this time tracking this for nothing, Floridas infrastructure is built for hurricanes, they'll be fine.
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Post by hyde345 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:28 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Jesus - this is unbelievable and please do not say EURO is king - it is 1500 S of it last run at OZ and had this in teh GOM last Thurs. for God's sake. It doesn't make it north of Jacksonville - stalls the CAT 5 out and loops it back to Miami for a second go round - REALLY?? SHows teh trough in midsection and then poof flattens it like a pancake. WOW.
Mugs why are you so in love with the GFS all of a sudden the gofus as you call it. It's always too fast always. The Euro was always correct within the 72 hour time frame and with the timing of the system that it would be a slow mover and if I'm not mistaken it never showed any impact at all for our area. You can add in that it looks like it is handling this trough the best. Still a few days to go. remember yesterday when all the other major models had a much sharper trough and she didn't.

I agree with Mugs in that the euro hasn't handled Matthew well either. When the storm formed it had it developing slowly and had it moving into GOM. We all know how quickly it developed in 36 hours. Just a few days ago Indy ensemble members were all over the place, some in GOM, some OTS, and some NE'ward from Carolinas. 00z has it along se coast up to Carolinas and then OTS and now 12Z has it slamming into Florida and then doing a loop. That is not having a handle on the situation if you ask me and I don't think it has performed well either.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:28 pm

Some into GOM ha LOL OMG this is so ridiculous.

Sunday morning they are all mostly still down around FL or SC, don't buy that for one second, I totally agree with hyde and mugs.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:29 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:^Im not sure why everyone is always in love with the EURO, I would always 50/50 the forecast because verification is nearly identical since they updated the GFS. I can name several big storms in the past few the GFS and EURO nailed and blew respectively and visa versa.
The fact is the euro is the best model there is no denying that but it's not perfect. With regards to this storm the GFS did not handle it well from the beginning as I said last week so why would you trust it going out 5 - 10 days if it's not correct at initialization. I just feel with this storm the euro is handling it better than the GFS so far. Its mot over yet but the writong is on the wall. The next one I may ride the GFS but it has not handled this one well
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:39 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:^Im not sure why everyone is always in love with the EURO, I would always 50/50 the forecast because verification is nearly identical since they updated the GFS. I can name several big storms in the past few the GFS and EURO nailed and blew respectively and visa versa.
The fact is the euro is the best model there is no denying that but it's not perfect. With regards to this storm the GFS did not handle it well from the beginning  as I said last week so why would you trust it going out 5 - 10 days if it's not correct at initialization. I just feel with this storm the euro is handling it better than the GFS so far. Its mot over yet but the writong is on the wall. The next one I may ride the GFS but it  has not handled this one well

To each is own. I wouldn't say thats a fact. I think they all have their own biases that are clearly visible with tracking big storms like this and winter storms that show their own respective weaknesses. I would say GFS and EURO are about equal. Canadian and Ukie and Nam runners up for 3rd place with more severe biases. Although the NAM was the only model to correctly (to an extent) nail the blizzard last year from 84 out while all others really struggled. Like I said, certain setups are better for some models than others, like the CMC did best with Hermine.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:52 pm

Eye looks to be passing over extreme eastern tip of Cuba very shortly.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:03 pm

Ugh.......I have relatives from Long Island that are currently vacationing in Orlando. They are scheduled to be back in NY this Sunday. And they are several days away from facing a potential catastrophic hurricane......

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:05 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Ugh.......I have relatives from Long Island that are currently vacationing in Orlando.  They are scheduled to be back in NY this Sunday.  And they are several days away from facing a potential catastrophic hurricane......

Having been to Florida many times times. It would likely still be nasty in Orlando, but not nearly as bad or dangerous as the coast or barrier islands as long as they are away from there they should be safe as the infrastructure is relatively fortified there.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:08 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Ugh.......I have relatives from Long Island that are currently vacationing in Orlando.  They are scheduled to be back in NY this Sunday.  And they are several days away from facing a potential catastrophic hurricane......


know the feeling..I have 2 sets of friends at Disney and I have in-laws in Bermuda..and need to cruise home on Thurs. Also my parents best friend lives 2 streets away from the Bouge Sound in NC.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:12 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Ugh.......I have relatives from Long Island that are currently vacationing in Orlando.  They are scheduled to be back in NY this Sunday.  And they are several days away from facing a potential catastrophic hurricane......

Having been to Florida many times times. It would likely still be nasty in Orlando, but not nearly as bad or dangerous as the coast or barrier islands as long as they are away from there they should be safe as the infrastructure is relatively fortified there.


thanks that makes me feel better
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Post by Joe Snow Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:17 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 5 Cmc_mo10

This is from September 26th (it's a screen shot) looks like the CMC & CLP5 track had Matthew's track the best.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:19 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 5 Cmc_mo10

This is from September 26th (it's a screen shot) looks like the CMC & CLP5 track had Matthew's track the best.

Wow yeah, the CMC actually surprisingly close...
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:53 pm

I was looking at weather channel and saw that the whole coast of SC is going to be evacuated
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:00 pm

Not fl? Gfs looks close for capture btw.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Not fl? Gfs looks close for capture btw.

did not see anything for them yet...
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:08 pm

Nope nvm similar to 12z looks like our threat may b close to done but nor def. Curious what frank says at 7.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:09 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Not fl? Gfs looks close for capture btw.

did not see anything for them yet...
odd being they first in line.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:12 pm

Some rain from trough but not even close.
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Post by hyde345 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nope nvm similar to 12z looks like our threat may b close to done but nor def. Curious what frank says at 7.

The fat lady is singing.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:19 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Nope nvm similar to 12z looks like our threat may b close to done but nor def. Curious what frank says at 7.

The fat lady is singing.
could just b another flip flop we will see.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nope nvm similar to 12z looks like our threat may b close to done but nor def. Curious what frank says at 7.

Careful, its not over until the storm has passed and clearly wont or will impact the area. Still a couple days of runs yet.
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