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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 2 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:19 am

WOW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:19 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:Hurricane and Trop Storm watches hoisted in FL
Yep got family in vero beach and just south of there forgot the name of town. They said the craziness has begun.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:21 am

@Snow88 wrote:WOW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Just posted the image embedded above snow, yepo, we well in cone now for 120 hrs. 90mph hurricane off our shore. But who knows margin of error as we know can be west or east. I am banking porbably where it is or west but that's a guess. We will see how cone changes. So freaking glad at least we now have something to track for the area that's by a professional entity.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:22 am

now we start praying it doesn't keep shifting west.
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Post by deadrabbit79 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:25 am

Im. Confused.....pray that a major hurricane comes up the coast and hits us?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 am

Well some of us weenies want to see some action, of course I understand the issues and damage such storms can cause, RJB obviously wants it to stay away, I for one want to see some action sorry if you do not agree, I am not the only one however. Even Frank said bring it on a few days ago.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:31 am

@Snow88 wrote:WOW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

it rockets from sat to sunday, wow
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Post by devsman Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:32 am

@deadrabbit79 wrote:Im. Confused.....pray that a major hurricane comes up the coast and hits us?

This is a weather enthusiast site. we track and follow storms all our lives for moments like this. we are not wishing for death and destruction but we like to have storms hit us b/c thats what we live for... at least weather-wise.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:33 am

12z GFS is rolling.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:34 am

@devsman wrote:
@deadrabbit79 wrote:Im. Confused.....pray that a major hurricane comes up the coast and hits us?

This is a weather enthusiast site. we track and follow storms all our lives for moments like this. we are not wishing for death and destruction but we like to have storms hit us b/c thats what we live for... at least weather-wise.

Better stated than my statement, thanks dev.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:41 am

Through 36, 12z GFS is shallower with the trough, slower with Matthew, and not as amplified in the eastern Pacific compared to 00z.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:46 am

So worse than 12z? So not seeing improvements so far.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:48 am

Note some have it maintaining cat 2-3 even 4 through 120 hrs plus, I can't believe it would be that strong up this way, most show a steady decline though.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_intensity_12z.png
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:54 am

@rb924119 wrote:Looking at the 12z hurricane model suite, I don't know how bad the impacts would actually be with the western tracks, other than rain and gusty winds. Here's why: if those tracks were to verify, especially something like the UKMET where it is really over land, that would really work to spin down the storm. In other words, weaken it. Something else to consider, is with a track like that, that is implying that it becomes embedded in the southwesterly flow of the trough as it moves east. Ok, fine. However, the trough is not nearly deep enough to fully capture the system and phase the two, so in my mind (take that for what little it's worth, as I swear I can hear the last few remaining screws rattling around in there from time to time lol) the system would really start shearing out and becoming disorganized. Therefore, it would look good in Virginia, for example, but by the time it would get up here would basically be a shield of rain with winds on the front side ahead of the front. Then, once the front swings through that would be it. I don't know, but there is still another day or so of runs before I accept any one solution. There's still way too much inconsistency for me to take anything to be a definitive trend or track.

Being inland or well offshore isnt so bad. But as the 6z GFDL showed, the worst solutions are tucked in right off the coast, a 954mb low right off the NJ coast with a period of easterly fetch into the coast.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:55 am

*958mb

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100406&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:00 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:*958mb

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100406&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=0

that's nearly identical to NHC track. Yeah that would bring big impacts for the entire area. Note how far windfield spreads too.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:10 pm

Swing and a miss GFS, grrrr lol, these models have no clue still. I think that's the furthest S & E I have seen it yet!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:10 pm

GFS really looks like the Euro. Wouldn't take much to bring it back west. Matthew needs to go a little faster.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:11 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Swing and a miss GFS, grrrr lol, these models have no clue still.

Yea looks further SE, dont have the full run yet but looks to shoot ENE off NC.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:11 pm

Doesn't look like a good run for the 12Z GFS. Once it reaches the  N Carolina coastline, it scoots OTS. Very EURO like.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:12 pm

@Snow88 wrote:GFS really looks like the Euro. Wouldn't take much to bring it back west. Matthew needs to go a little faster.
I was just thinking the same thing, ugg the Euro better not be right or im go have dirt on my face for believing the GFS, I do not think it will take much as you said to be back west, and I am not surprised the windshield wipers continue. and the factors are so pin point I think hopefully by tomorrow 12z we will have this nearly down.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:15 pm

Lets see if CMC follows suit.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:15 pm

12Z GFS is a miss - good PRE rain but shunt ENE after it exits the OBX region. We have seen this waffling before - Trough digs but matt slows down again - if it was faster hed be on our door step. Anyone to say or think this over needs to learn .

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:19 pm

@amugs wrote:12Z GFS is a miss - good PRE rain but shunt ENE after it exits the OBX region. We have seen this waffling before - Trough digs but matt slows down again - if it was faster hed be on our door step. Anyone to say or think this over needs to learn .

Well the fact that it came in line with the Euro on that run is HMMM... Suspect

We'll see what the 12z Euro has to say.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:20 pm

This just might be the most aggravating storm I've ever tracked. Can't get any consensus.
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