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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:16 pm

Well s & west of 00z.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:17 pm

Euro isn't even close to the GFS at 500mb. Something tells me this isn't over. That loop may be because it misses the trough completely and sits cutoff from the main flow until the next trough picks it up.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_5
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_17

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:18 pm

Slower too my god - trough is gone in plains by this time. may just scoot OTS after it rides up to SC.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Euro isn't even close to the GFS at 500mb.  Something tells me this isn't over.  That loop may be because it misses the trough completely and sits cutoff from the main flow until the next trough picks it up.  

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_5
HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_17

The Euro does a loop! I was talk on hurricane models, watching on wxbell, slow as you know what. Okay yeah its not over by far, fwef, had it been exactly like the rest of the models I think we'd be say bye, for up here that is.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:19 pm

UKIE doing something similar with stalling and looping off SE coast

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:21 pm

WTH Euro?! That's the most bizarre track yet, might it have to do with the delay, came out ass backwards?
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:22 pm

Who the hell knows.  I'm out until tomorrow morning.  Start fresh by examining 18z and 00z in the am. We are prob not done with model mayhem

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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:25 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Who the hell knows.  I'm out until tomorrow morning.  Start fresh by examining 18z and 00z in the am.  We are prob not done with model mayhem
For sure, see ya tomorrow : )
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:27 pm

@amugs wrote:Slower too my god  - trough is gone in plains by this time. may just scoot OTS after it rides up to SC.
Well mugs ur boy on the models is a mess, in real time first he ate his GF Martha, now he wants to run around in circles lol
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Post by Sferra01 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sferra01 wrote:I follow this page all the time....especially when there is the potential for a major storm to hit.  Can i ask your opinion?  I'm supposed to be flying into Ft Meyes Thursday.....my brother is baptizing my niece and I am the God mother.  My concern is getting back into NY.....I am scheduled to fly back in Sunday night.  I have 4 young children and I dont want to be away from them if a storm is coming or risk not getting back.  Any thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated.  

I think your problem will be going to florida on Thursday (going to be making landfall or close to on most of FL) and your return possibly.

Thank you...guess it's a waiting game....will have to keep tuned in here....

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:32 pm

Jesus - this is unbelievable and please do not say EURO is king - it is 1500 S of it last run at OZ and had this in teh GOM last Thurs. for God's sake. It doesn't make it north of Jacksonville - stalls the CAT 5 out and loops it back to Miami for a second go round - REALLY?? SHows teh trough in midsection and then poof flattens it like a pancake. WOW.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:33 pm

@Sferra01 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sferra01 wrote:I follow this page all the time....especially when there is the potential for a major storm to hit.  Can i ask your opinion?  I'm supposed to be flying into Ft Meyes Thursday.....my brother is baptizing my niece and I am the God mother.  My concern is getting back into NY.....I am scheduled to fly back in Sunday night.  I have 4 young children and I dont want to be away from them if a storm is coming or risk not getting back.  Any thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated.  

I think your problem will be going to florida on Thursday (going to be making landfall or close to on most of FL) and your return possibly.

Thank you...guess it's a waiting game....will have to keep tuned in here....

Yes it is, models are dead set on FL though and likely the SE US, its up here that is the big question and IF it even has a chance. Right now NHC cone says near but tat will change we still have 5 days or so.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:35 pm

@amugs wrote:Jesus - this is unbelievable and please do not say EURO is king - it is 1500 S of it last run at OZ and had this in teh GOM last Thurs. for God's sake. It doesn't make it north of Jacksonville - stalls the CAT 5 out and loops it back to Miami for a second go round - REALLY?? SHows teh trough in midsection and then poof flattens it like a pancake. WOW.

I def have lost a lot of belief in the Euro over the past year. I have been learning more about the 500mb level with this storm and I can see the drastic difference, I wonder if when frank mentioned the typhoon in pacific if that is complicating what the trough will eventually look like and if the WAR is being modeled correctly. Its insanity that's for sure.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:37 pm

What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

I'm ready for a blizzard! :-p
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:39 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

I'm ready for a blizzard! :-p

If you go straight up by the NHC its a 90mph cat 1 up this way, that's winds about the same or a bit higher than sandy but no unless there is drastic change (tropics always has that chance) I think we see maybe TS conditions or weak hurricane in WCS.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

I'm ready for a blizzard! :-p

If you go straight up by the NHC its a 90mph cat 1 up this way, that's winds about the same or a bit higher than sandy but no unless there is drastic change (tropics always has that chance) I think we see maybe TS conditions or weak hurricane in WCS.

Correct, but it's a 90 mph hurricane headed NE and not even landfalling near us. Perhaps Eastern LI mayyy see hurricane conditions per NHCs latest cone (which will change a hundred times more) but we wouldn't here in NYC metro, I don't believe. Longest storm ever to track tho, man!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:00 pm

[quote="SoulSingMG"][quote="jmanley32"]
@SoulSingMG wrote:What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

Yes, current trends may cause the storm to just brush or miss the area entirely! We all know the storm is never nailed days in advance, last runs show such a wide inland hook over the southeast that it causes the synoptic setup to change as it attempts to gain latitude and fails to make it north of OBX. Most notably EURO, CMC went back to this soln., JMA, and GFS is trending towards it. For east coast impacts, you want it to rush straight north and miss Florida, if it landfalls in Florida, I feel it will miss us for the most part, maybe a brush, if it just brushes Florida it will probably come closer to us, just my gut feeling.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:01 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

I'm ready for a blizzard! :-p

If you go straight up by the NHC its a 90mph cat 1 up this way, that's winds about the same or a bit higher than sandy but no unless there is drastic change (tropics always has that chance) I think we see maybe TS conditions or weak hurricane in WCS.

Correct, but it's a 90 mph hurricane headed NE and not even landfalling near us. Perhaps Eastern LI mayyy see hurricane conditions per NHCs latest cone (which will change a hundred times more)  but we wouldn't here in NYC metro, I don't believe. Longest storm ever to track tho, man!
We will see we could be looking down the barrel in 2 days from now the way the models have been, more offshore than not though is what I can recall for the most part. Yes I just found a map from the 22nd of Sept. and it had this around the 8th!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

I'm ready for a blizzard! :-p

If you go straight up by the NHC its a 90mph cat 1 up this way, that's winds about the same or a bit higher than sandy but no unless there is drastic change (tropics always has that chance) I think we see maybe TS conditions or weak hurricane in WCS.

They're end of the cone is never right... Changes constantly and I dont buy that for a quick minute.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:03 pm

Nobody knows where its going or how strong its going to be. As far as north of the Southeast is concerned. I'd be getting a bit worried if I was in eastern Florida by now, definately be prepping in the Bahamas.


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:03 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:What IS promising on the damage side of things is that we are not looking at a Sandy or 1938 repeat. At most, some heavy rains, gusty winds, and really rough surf IMO if any affects at all. By the way, if he does affect us, he'll be out of here in about 9 hours' time. Florida on the other hand is in big trouble.

Yes, current trends may cause the storm to just brush or miss the area entirely! We all know the storm is never nailed days in advance, last runs show such a wide inland hook over the southeast that it causes the synoptic setup to change as it attempts to gain latitude and fails to make it north of OBX. Most notably EURO, CMC went back to this soln., JMA, and GFS is trending towards it. For east coast impacts, you want it to rush straight north and miss Florida, if it landfalls in Florida, I feel it will miss us for the most part, maybe a brush, if it just brushes Florida it will probably come closer to us, just my gut feeling. 12z HWRF FWIW is further off FL coast and JUST brushes it as you say, far from consensus, keeps things interesting I guess, or drives ya nuts lol

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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:04 pm

@amugs wrote:Jesus - this is unbelievable and please do not say EURO is king - it is 1500 S of it last run at OZ and had this in teh GOM last Thurs. for God's sake. It doesn't make it north of Jacksonville - stalls the CAT 5 out and loops it back to Miami for a second go round - REALLY?? SHows teh trough in midsection and then poof flattens it like a pancake. WOW.
Mugs why are you so in love with the GFS all of a sudden the gofus as you call it. It's always too fast always. The Euro was always correct within the 72 hour time frame and with the timing of the system that it would be a slow mover and if I'm not mistaken it never showed any impact at all for our area. You can add in that it looks like it is handling this trough the best. Still a few days to go. remember yesterday when all the other major models had a much sharper trough and she didn't.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:06 pm

^Im not sure why everyone is always in love with the EURO, I would always 50/50 the forecast because verification is nearly identical since they updated the GFS. I can name several big storms in the past few the GFS and EURO nailed and blew respectively and visa versa.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:09 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:^Im not sure why everyone is always in love with the EURO, I would always 50/50 the forecast because verification is nearly identical since they updated the GFS. I can name several big storms in the past few the GFS and EURO nailed and blew respectively and visa versa.

yep, blizzard 2014.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:20 pm

Will have a 7pm update

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