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Long Range Thread 12.0

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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:59 am

some hope for the new year...
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Eps_ao_00
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Eps_nao_00
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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:11 am

Al, we are due for a warm spell, especially up here in the HV.Its been cold and snowy pretty much since the week before Thanksgiving and will get cold again this week with maybe more snow this weekend.I don't mind a brief warm up for a few weeks as long as we get back into it by mid January.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:12 am

I'm actually fairly intrigued by a possible storm during the beginning of next week, or at least during the first half before we see temperatures spike above normal. The setup looks very similar to the event that we saw just before this one. I'm also looking out for an event very similar to the one we had last night for Saturday, where we get a light snow event ahead of the warm front associated with the low in the Lakes. Both threats would likely favor areas away from the coast, but we'll see. There is a lot to suggest that warm air will win big for both, but based on the trends this season so far I'm banking on a few quick inches before a changeover for both.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:14 am

@algae888 wrote:some hope for the new year...
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Eps_ao_00
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Eps_nao_00

Maybe, but the Stratosphere doesn't look favorable for anything sustained; very transient look to it, at least in my opinion.

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:39 am

@docstox12 wrote:Al, we are due for a warm spell, especially up here in the HV.Its been cold and snowy pretty much since the week before Thanksgiving and will get cold again this week with maybe more snow this weekend.I don't mind a brief warm up for a few weeks as long as we get back into it by mid January.

Your right there DOC - Pattern is going to relax after the 21st so it looks - cold air still abundant in CENTRAL CAN and NW so it is there and really up in CANADA since we have a solid snowpack and glacier built over these last few weeks including this coming up for such.
ENS not looking good for anything but warmth from about xmass to 1st week of January - EURO ENS as Frank posted showing this - ugghhhhh!!!! BUT a lot of winter to go so maybe we get a massive volcanic explosion in a barren land to help send us into a deep winter??

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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:31 pm

Maybe an inch or so of snow tomorrow night and Saturday storm has trended weaker with a nice front end thump 2-5 inches on most models before it changes to sleet. Will have a colder air mass in place so good chance we can see several inches from the system. After that a coastal for next week Tuesday as RB was alluding to.
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Post by HectorO Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:27 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Al, we are due for a warm spell, especially up here in the HV.Its been cold and snowy pretty much since the week before Thanksgiving and will get cold again this week with maybe more snow this weekend.I don't mind a brief warm up for a few weeks as long as we get back into it by mid January.

A few weeks? lol, time is against us in this area, a few days is fine a few weeks leads into a new month and closer to spring. I'm just hoping for average temperature day on Christmas. Might not happen though.
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Post by HectorO Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:33 pm

Where does news 12 get their info from? I see 41 for Sunday and they're saying 57. Big difference
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:36 pm

@algae888 wrote:some hope for the new year...
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Eps_ao_00
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Eps_nao_00

Thank you Al, I needed that.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:36 pm

Nice little snowfall on the GFS for this weekend
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:48 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Nice little snowfall on the GFS for this weekend

For what areas
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:08 pm

@algae888 wrote:Maybe an inch or so of snow tomorrow night and Saturday storm has trended weaker with a nice front end thump 2-5 inches on most models before it changes to sleet. Will have a colder air mass in place so good chance we can see several inches from the system. After that a coastal for next week Tuesday as RB was alluding to.

Tomorrow night?

Models show nothing but maybe some flurries. Some snow showers in central NY. Majority of our area will not see much.


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:09 pm

The GFS and EURO show moderate snow changing to rain on Saturday. The front-end thump could result in a 3 to 6" snowfall for the area. I do not have time to expand on that tonight, but will do so tomorrow.

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:58 pm

Could be a good sign if we see this in 5 days again on this chart and again in 7 days

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 584ef59b6cdd8_ecmwf_wpo_biasWPO.thumb.png.767c9623d5ef11d111d97936f4f8f7a0

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:41 am

Whether you like it or not, the blowtorch that Frank has advertised for late next week is now in model range.  Hr 240 of the 12/13/16 0Z ECMWF shows this (keep mind these 850 mb temperature anomalies are in Celsius):

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:55 am

@Math23x7 wrote:Whether you like it or not, the blowtorch that Frank has advertised for late next week is now in model range.  Hr 240 of the 12/13/16 0Z ECMWF shows this (keep mind these 850 mb temperature anomalies are in Celsius):

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 37 Blowto10
holy crap is that 30 degrees above normal?! What is that 70 80 lol omg I cannot take another summer xmas day.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:18 am

The average temperature on Christmas Day on the heat Island is a high of 40 and a low of 29, it is 36 and 18 in Orange County, which makes the above map 100% unfair.

So why do I get the feeling despite being almost two weeks away it will verify. I guarantee if it was a snow storm it wouldn't.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:56 am

Temps Christmas Day are likely to be +3 to +6 above normal. Not thinking 60's or 70's. We'll see if we crack 50 this year but most likely upper 40's.

Still long ways off. If a front comes through quicker than expected than naturally cold air will filter behind and we'll be in the 30's.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Temps Christmas Day are likely to be +3 to +6 above normal. Not thinking 60's or 70's. We'll see if we crack 50 this year but most likely upper 40's.

Still long ways off. If a front comes through quicker than expected than naturally cold air will filter behind and we'll be in the 30's.

Even upper 40's is 8-12 degrees above normal for the city and N & W suburbs, I'll take it over last year but it's still a scroo job.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:45 am


[/quote]
holy crap is that 30 degrees above normal?! What is that 70 80 lol omg I cannot take another summer xmas day.[/quote]

No lol

Upper 40s to lower to mid 50s
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:19 am

Right Celsius my bad. 00z some eye candy for xmas snow map.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:24 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Right Celsius my bad. 00z some eye candy for xmas snow map.

Please post, all this Christmas talk of 50 degrees is depressing me.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:26 am

holy crap is that 30 degrees above normal?! What is that 70 80 lol omg I cannot take another summer xmas day.[/quote]

No lol

Upper 40s to lower to mid 50s
[/quote]

Like I said earlier upper 40's to mid 50's is still 12-15 degrees above normal for Christmas Day. I guess people are starting to think these mild Christmas are normal. In the past they haven't been but in very recent history it's been the trend.
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Post by frank 638 Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:28 am

50 deg is depressing I was hoping for little snow for Xmas enough with this warm mild weather crap

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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:07 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Temps Christmas Day are likely to be +3 to +6 above normal. Not thinking 60's or 70's. We'll see if we crack 50 this year but most likely upper 40's.

Still long ways off. If a front comes through quicker than expected than naturally cold air will filter behind and we'll be in the 30's.

Even upper 40's is 8-12 degrees above normal for the city and N & W suburbs, I'll take it over last year but it's still a scroo job.


Maybe for NJ suburbs but that's about normal technically for the city. The city's average isn't 35 or 30 yet for this time.
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