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Long Range Thread 12.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:42 am

In my opinion this is what I call a frustrating pattern. SE ridge flexes ahead of storm tracks to our west. The FROPA (frontal passage) then ushers in cold air behind. So when we're cold we are dry, when we're mild it's wet. In my view that's a mild pattern but "mild" may be 5 to 10 degrees above normal which is mainly 50's.

GEFS for Christmas Day

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_27

GEFS for January 2nd

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_60

1st half of January looks mostly average to me. Not necessarily above average. But the storm track pattern for snowstorms to the coast remains unfavorable for the foreseeable future.

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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:21 am

^^ agree with all the above posts. don't forget we are in prime climo now so +5-10 is mostly low -mid 40's. if we can just get a wave beneath us that is where the s/e ridge can help. also noting on models how one strong HP after another will be over new England and south eastern canada after xmas. some 1040+ HP. so maybe some of those cutters can trend south over the next few days. with hell nino gone temps aren't the problem this year it's storm track. hopefully we can get the track south of us....
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:38 am

Those are nice and strong HP's. My only issue is there is no blocking to keep them in place. A storm cutting through the mid-section of the country will easily boot that HP northeast, allowing the SE ridge to surge.

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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:47 am

pv goes from this ...
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_1
today
to this in 6 days
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_13
and then this 15 days.
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33
so maybe some hope as the vortex elongates.
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Screen-Shot-2016-12-19-at-7.51.26-AM
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Screen-Shot-2016-12-19-at-7.48.47-AM
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Screen-Shot-2016-12-19-at-7.48.35-AM
courtesy of steve d. so maybe some warming on the way?
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:49 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Those are nice and strong HP's. My only issue is there is no blocking to keep them in place. A storm cutting through the mid-section of the country will easily boot that HP northeast, allowing the SE ridge to surge.
agree frank. hopefully we can get some transient block for a system or two. also these HP tend to hold their ground some at this time of year even without blocking.
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:54 am

Aleutian ridge has trended strong the last several days...
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:07 am

Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning. I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:12 am

@sroc4 wrote:Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

Hahaha please do share

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:15 am

Upper strat is forecasted to get as cold as it was last year

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Nacr.PNG.c504fd564e4df8410d3e734842973a22

Tired Mad Brick

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.

Hahaha please do share

I will when I have a little extra time to write up why I think there are some inaccuracies so others can chime in and we can discuss it a bit further

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:39 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.
In all fairness Scott The Vortex does look like it takes a few hits Post 10 days. Yes it's going to strengthen and become strong now but who knows what happens as we move into January. The pattern looks real bad for the next few weeks however we do not have the same base heat as we did last year so as you alluded to in your earlier post maybe not as Torchy.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:12 pm

Unfortunately this is a negative double whammy for us. Not only will the PV intensity leading up to New Years, but it will move toward Alaska which will keep our EPO positive and PNA negative. I am seeing some positive news in the mean zonal winds, though, but would rather wait a couple of days to see how real it is.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/810862533171146753






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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:16 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Al I have some serious issue with Steve D's LR write up regarding the strat this morning.  I dont have time to get into details, but IMO he either doesnt have a clue on how ity works or he doesnt think his clients do.
In all fairness Scott The Vortex does look like it takes a few hits Post 10 days. Yes it's going to strengthen and become strong now but who knows what happens as we move into January. The pattern looks real bad for the next few weeks however we do not have the same base heat as we did last year so as you alluded to in your earlier post maybe not as Torchy.

I will disagree with that for now Al, but like you said LR forecasts can still change.  My biggest problem is what he is saying about what is happening in the Strat right now.  


Ladies and gentlemen, I give you support for a warming stratosphere once again.  Above is the chart for 70 MB observations which is updated every day after 00Z soundings are retrieved.  As you can see, there has been a clear cooling off of the stratosphere at 70 MB and this can be seen up through 1 MB, which is actually averaging below normal.  Over the past 5 days, I have been monitoring the warming that has started at 70 MB and this has now extended to 50 MB, and now just this morning 30 MB.  The stratospheric cooling is over.

Pay attention to this area circled on all the maps Im about to show.  Here is the 70mb map he is refering to:  Yes a small spike warmer:


Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Screen10


No actually, the strat cooling is just beggining. And no there is not warming at 30 and 50 mb right now nor is there any immediate forecast to.  Here is the 30mb chart:  Notice it actually just started to trend back towards cold again:

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 30mb9065


Here is the 10mb chart:  Notice it is currently back towards record cold as we speak:

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 10mb9065


What he may think is warming is this next chart.  Notice it says 30mb, but also lotice this chart is for latitudes between 25N and 25S: This is the strat over the tropics.  If you look at the other two images I posted they are for 90N to 65N...the Arctic circle.  This is where it matters.  

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 30mb2525

The bottom line is there are no true strat warming events that will have any overt effects on the lower troposphere any time soon.  The forecast beyond 7-10 has all levels of the strat reconsolidate centered over the N Pole with very little elongation lasting through day 15.  Im not saying we cant have an arctic air mass move through but not because of the strat.  It would be more likely due to a strong MJO impulse.


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Unfortunately this is a negative double whammy for us. Not only will the PV intensity leading up to New Years, but it will move toward Alaska which will keep our EPO positive and PNA negative. I am seeing some positive news in the mean zonal winds, though, but would rather wait a couple of days to see how real it is.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/810862533171146753






Your seeing them peak and then trend weaker by about the first right?

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:26 pm

Excellent Scott.

Check out today's 12z EURO 10hPa geopotential heights at D10. This thing is a beast. 2800 DM.

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Euro_day_10

December 2015

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Y8r0sORuCk

Now...this is a huge IF and probably not worth posting since it has a high chance of changing, but today's french site shows upper stratospheric warming taking place in the long range. 1hPa winds are forecasted to weaken, and 30hPa geopotential heat flux (wave 1) is expected to increase. EPV at 10hPa remains weak though, so the wave 1 warming is not doing enough in the way of Rosby wave transfer. But honestly, this is likely to change. Just *some* hope.

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 40 Fluxes

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:10 pm

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