August 2013 Observation & Discussions Thread

[Frank_Wx]

August is setting itself up to be one of the coolest Augusts' since 2004. We are in a blocking pattern in which frequent trough's are going to parade over the northeastern U.S. There will also be more rain this month compared to July (where we finished below normal precip wise). High temps next week will not get out of the 70's, with low potentially in the low 50's! Some areas, especially the further north and west you live, may only see high's in the 60's.

[Quietace]

Jesus, look at the GEM for hour 102 and the GFS for hour 96....8-10 degrees below average. And both models continue to have a mean trough throughout the end of their runs with anywhere 5+ degrees below normal. Will be a fantastic August if it stays in this pattern the whole month.


And the GFS at the end of its run want to keep the ridging to the west with a trough in the east past mid month continually displacing the Bermuda high far east. We will see if the pattern holds true and keeps it displaced west past mid month or if it will have a chance to rebuild back into the area if the persistent troughs weaken a bit, which is a possibility.

[Frank_Wx]

That is pretty amazing...

[Frank_Wx]

Blog about the 1st half of August and what we can expect

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/08/exactly-how-cool-will-it-get.html

[HeresL]

This weather stinks!! Thank you for the explanation for why summer now feels like fall. I just wish it would go away.

[Frank_Wx]

Wednesday-Friday of this week could bring moderate rain at times. Looks pretty unsettled. I would bet atleaat 1.00 inches of rain likely.

[Quietace]

After a quick chance for mid to upper 80s this weekend with warmer 850's and a SW flow, most models show a reloaded trough moving back east that could be stronger and more vertically oriented, or more zonal than this past one, either way keeping us below average for most of next week. As i mentioned, i  think the question is how  below average we will get. Models agree on moving in a trough, but their is a discrepancy on how vertically oriented and strong the trough itself will get. taking a look at the GFS and GEM discrepancy at the 500mb heights. Both show a strong ULL over Canada between 136 and 150 hours,
The GEM has a 594 DM high popping a strong + PNA ridge in the west. You can also notice the HP center is further west itself. This allows the Upper Level Vort over Canada to react and form a sharper and stronger vort with tighter pressure gradients over the Eastern US and Build a strong 1023mb high on the back side of the trough

With the tight trough over the Eastern US with a strong Vort Max over Canada it allows even cooler air to filter in behind the departing ULL bringing much below average 850's and in turn temperatures.

The GFS on the other hand has a much weaker Hp is the SW that is displaced further east due to the GFS's accelerated movement of the ULL. With out the HP being further west and in a more stronger and dominating position, it is unable to form a more vertically oriented Positive ridge in the west, therefore not allowing the ULL to dive further south and enhance the trough, making the pattern in the Eastern US more zonal than the GEM.

At 150 hours you can easy see the difference between the GFS and GEM, the GFS has the ULL much father to the east than the GEM, and a almost complete zonal pattern with little vertical tilt to the Jet stream. this allows more seasonable temperatures to stay in the area with a west wind rather than a cool NW or N wind  and allowing the bulk of the cooler weather to the west.


Their has been a trend to a weaker trough in the east in this time period over the last day or two. If this trend continues we will not see much below average temps, but if the global guidance holds suite we could be in for a even more pronounced cool down. We will see how models trened the next couple days.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea it looks the the trough is having a difficult time digging itself along the east coast. Need more ridging in the west.

[Frank_Wx]

Pouring in NNJ right now. Localized flooding.

[Frank_Wx]

Wednesday-Friday of this week could bring moderate rain at times. Looks pretty unsettled. I would bet atleaat 1.00 inches of rain likely.

I would have to say 1-2+ inches of rain instead of only 1 inch. Especially in localized areas who keep seeing t-storms.

[Dunnzoo]

NENJ light again on the precip end of the last few days....grand total of .55". The brooks did rise a bit though due to all the rain in NYS draining into our watershed, spectacular morning today!

[Frank_Wx]

This has been a really boring month, eh?

[Quietace]

This has been a really boring month, eh?

Well considering we have had...no severe weather....no hurricanes....no heat waves.... and barley any rain......i guess looking at temperature forecasts and sun angles are now considered fun......lol...maybe its time for a very preliminary winter forecast to be in the works...i mean there is nothing else to do....

[Dunnzoo]

I'm looking at temps for the next few weeks since I will be vacationing in Seaside Park starting the 17th until Labor Day. Would love for these moderate temps to stick around for the rest of the month. So far I see no 90's at the shore for the next 2 weeks!

[Quietace]

I'm looking at temps for the next few weeks since I will be vacationing in Seaside Park starting the 17th until Labor Day. Would love for these moderate temps to stick around for the rest of the month. So far I see no 90's at the shore for the next 2 weeks!

Don't count on it, some models are hinting that the Bermuda high might have a chance to retrograde back west by the end of August with warm and humid above average temperatures. But we dont have to much model support yet so its preliminary.

[Frank_Wx]

It appears by the weekend we are going to transition back into a humid pattern with occasional storms here and there. A low pressure system developing in the Gulf will attempt to come up the coast and bring rain to the area next week. This enables heights to rise and call for the return of the Bermuda High off the coast. I'm beginning to suspect we'll experience a warmer than normal pattern from the last week of August through most of September. And although the tropics have been quiet, pressures remain low in the Atlantic and the upper level pattern will turn more favorable for development by the end of this month. Just some thoughts as I head down to Wildwood for the week.

[Frank_Wx]

Yikes! Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting around here, especially for central/northern NJ. A frontal boundary moving through will spark thunderstorms to develop in a 40-60kts atmosphere, albeit low CAPE values. My feeling is isolated severe weather is possible but scattered storms with locally heavy downpours and flash flooding. Since these are slow movers, I'm especially concerned about the flooding potential. 1-2 inches of rain likely with possibility of 3+ Worst of the storms should be between 1pm-7pm.

[Snow88]

Nice and cool overnight. Finally going to sleep with the window open =)

[Frank_Wx]

I don't have access to a whole lot of data on my Ipad compared to laptop, but it looks like the last week of this month will feature above normal temps. Thinking mainly mid to upper 80's. No heat waves.

[Quietace]

Basing off the latest CFS v.2, EURO, and MJO forecast (into phase 8, then 1 and 2) i think we might not see a warm September. We will see some above average temps to end August but then Both the Euro and CFS bring in below average temperatures with strong ridging in the west with a mean trough in the east. This is heavily suggesting September to turn rather cool, then hot...But we will see how models trend.

[Quietace]

GFS and NAM wants to hit the area with some moderate rainfall Sunday with convection from a coastal low while the EURO and International models keeps the rain offshore.



Courtesy to Weather Bell....

[Frank_Wx]

Leaning toward EURO on this one

[Quietace]

The CFS for September still want to keep average to below average temperatures. It keeps the warm +PDO pool enhancing the chance for continuing the ridging and +PNA in the west, favoring a mean trough in the east, thus keeping the Bermuda High displaced east, keeping us out of the humid hot air mass.  


lol, look at the blocking and serious -NAO it wants to develop in September, just enhances the probability of cool weather.

And the EURO flipped with the GFS last night, the EURO brings abut 1.5 inches of rain for southern Coastal NJ, while GFS has almost nothing. NYC stays dry with either solution with just heavy cloud cover.

[Frank_Wx]

Some showers, moderate at times, can be expected along the Jersey Shore and southern NJ late tonight into parts of the morning hours tomorrow. But I do not think it will be a washout. Some moisture will try to stream up the coast, but I think the bulk of it remains offshore.

[Quietace]

EURO for tomorrow

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