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2016-2017 Winter Outlook

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:39 am

I will be honest, this one was a struggle. This was my first outlook done since I started my full-time job out of school. I forgot how much time it takes to do all the research, the outline, and create the maps. Luckily, I got it done and I am excited about how it turns out. Please give it a read and feel free to ask questions. I hope everyone has a great day!

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/10/nj-strong-2016-2017-winter-outlook.html

2016-2017 Winter Outlook Winter_highlights

Best,

Frank

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:41 am

A reminder that we're holding a get together this Saturday in NYC. I hope you can make it. Click here for more info and reply in this thread if you would like to come. We'll talk a lot about the upcoming winter. Exciting stuff happening in the medium range forecast!

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t736-5th-annual-nj-strong-get-together-come-grab-a-drink


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Post by Guest Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:37 am

Thanks for all your hardwork paesan. Great Write up Frank. Thanks. I'm surprised at how conservative you were with your temp. profiles and snowfall forecast based on how positively your outlook read. Hopefully your snowfall forecast and temp. outlooks "bust" low. Wink Wink

Doc definitely is going to be upset about hearing the term "Miller B"

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Post by rb924119 Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:43 am

AWESOME discussion, Frank!!! I agree completely that the Appalachian range will be the dividing line this year, which is why I said I had my reservations about this season a few weeks back. Very well done!!! Hopefully it busts......on the too warm and not snowy enough end of the spectrum Wink Wink Wink

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:04 am

Thank you Frank for you hard work...I am understanding more each year...Happy Halloween...and hopes for a cold and snowy winter!!
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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:13 am

frank nice write up. question when did dr cohen change his forecast? this from oct 19th...
2016-2017 Winter Outlook AER-winter-forecast-2016-17
Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:28 am

Great write up Frank. Fun times ahead

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:53 am

Excellent Frank and thank you for spending the time to put it together and write it up.Hope it pans out as I am very near the cold and snowy area of your map.Looks like a lot of possible mix situations for the area, we will see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:19 am

@algae888 wrote:frank nice write up. question when did dr cohen change his forecast? this from oct 19th...
2016-2017 Winter Outlook AER-winter-forecast-2016-17
Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen

Hey Al,

I went back to read the article and found it was from 2013. DOH!

I updated my winter outlook to remove the Cohen piece. Actually, now that I see his current outlook we're in alignment because I was thinking to myself "geez, this Cohen guy must be looking at a different model because the SCE and SAI look great to me"

So I am glad we agree.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:58 am

In depth write up - great work! Thanks for taking the time to do this.

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:42 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@algae888 wrote:frank nice write up. question when did dr cohen change his forecast? this from oct 19th...
2016-2017 Winter Outlook AER-winter-forecast-2016-17
Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen

Hey Al,

I went back to read the article and found it was from 2013. DOH!

I updated my winter outlook to remove the Cohen piece. Actually, now that I see his current outlook we're in alignment because I was thinking to myself "geez, this Cohen guy must be looking at a different model because the SCE and SAI look great to me"

So I am glad we agree.
Ok great. Glad he didn't change his thinking. You had me very nervous this morning. Was thinking the one thing we could count on this winter was a negative AO. Nao, you never know and it hasn't been in our favour the last several years and the Pacific well good luck to anyone who can figure it out at this time. Thanks again for the write up.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:52 pm

Great write up but no big storms kinda stinks. Hoping that changes light to moderate events are not very exciting to me. If your go snow give me a blitzing blizzard!
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Post by Dtone Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:48 pm

This may be the year when snowfall across our area resets to normal gradients which snowfall totals rapidly increasing as you go N&W.

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Post by frank 638 Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:47 pm

thank you frank for ur write up and maps you posted its going to be a interesting winter.frank are u going to have a winter contest

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Post by Isotherm Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:44 pm

Frank -- great, logical, cogent analysis as per usual. Your maps are always aesthetically pleasing as well.



Couple questions out of curiosity: which variable are you most (and least) confident about? How would you assess the probability of another nationwide warm winter; in other words, do you think probabilities are greater for a bust colder or bust warmer than expected?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:47 pm

@Isotherm wrote:Frank -- great, logical, cogent analysis as per usual. Your maps are always aesthetically pleasing as well.

 

Couple questions out of curiosity: which variable are you most (and least) confident about? How would you assess the probability of another nationwide warm winter; in other words, do you think probabilities are greater for a bust colder or bust warmer than expected?

Thank you Tom. I always look forward to reading your outlooks as well. One day I'll be able to dig in on the specifics and scientific analysis as well as you do haha. Can't wait to read.

Those are great questions.

which variable are you most (and least) confident about?

I am most confident in the advanced snow cover continuing to take place in Eurasia and eventually into North America. The Strat PV is very weak, and remains to look that way for the next 10 days at least, which should set up a nice cross polar flow into our area around Thanksgiving or early December. The idea of an early start to winter I am pretty confident about.

2016-2017 Winter Outlook CwGh9y6UkAIX24-

The variable I am least confident in is the MJO and the development of negative outgoing longwave radiation west of the Dateline. Reason being is the QBO, evidenced by the uniqueness of the Strat PV this Fall, suggests there are easterly and westerly winds at different mid levels of the Stratosphere. I am banking on the negative IOD promoting westerly winds, or convection, to form and propagate through favorable MJO phases that would promote vertical WAF from the Trop to the Strat, further weakening the PV and possibly leading to a SSWE. Also, what impact does the weakening La Nina have on this? Between the ENSO and QBO I just do not know to be honest.

How would you assess the probability of another nationwide warm winter; in other words, do you think probabilities are greater for a bust colder or bust warmer than expected?

What is kind of concerning is there is a cooling trend in the north Pacific while the Atlantic remains very warm. Since I do not trust the NAO to go permanently negative this year, I think probabilities are greater for a bust on the warmer than expected side. There is a lot of conflicting signals. Favorable SCE/SAI compared to prior years, weak Strat PV, and weak La Nina are generally pretty good for our area. On the flip side, very warm Atlantic, cooling PDO, odd QBO are signals I worry about. And the Pacific is a very critical component of our winter weather pattern.

Alas, we shall see. I feel like I say this every year but this will be yet another winter I will come out learning something new.


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:52 pm

@frank 638 wrote:thank you frank for ur write up and maps you posted its going to be a interesting winter.frank are u going to have a winter contest

Ask and you shall receive.

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Post by Grselig Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:30 am

Thanks Frank. Expectations are for average snow. Hope you bust big time and we have some monsters lurking!! Really appreciate your analysis and the huge amounts of time you spent writing this!!!
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Post by Isotherm Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:18 am

Thanks, Frank for the detailed reply. And I completely agree, there are more conflicting signals (even compared to usual) this outlook season. Without the robust ENSO forcing as an aid, more pressure will be applied on accurately prognosticating the higher latitude indices. Hopefully I'll arrive at results similar to yours, as your long range forecasting record has been very good as well.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:37 am

@Isotherm wrote:Thanks, Frank for the detailed reply. And I completely agree, there are more conflicting signals (even compared to usual) this outlook season. Without the robust ENSO forcing as an aid, more pressure will be applied on accurately prognosticating the higher latitude indices. Hopefully I'll arrive at results similar to yours, as your long range forecasting record has been very good as well.

Tom when can we expect yours?

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Isotherm Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:46 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Isotherm wrote:Thanks, Frank for the detailed reply. And I completely agree, there are more conflicting signals (even compared to usual) this outlook season. Without the robust ENSO forcing as an aid, more pressure will be applied on accurately prognosticating the higher latitude indices. Hopefully I'll arrive at results similar to yours, as your long range forecasting record has been very good as well.

Tom when can we expect yours?

Scott, hopefully in about a week to 10 days or so. Want to see a bit more data and then finalize. Can't promise I'll have maps as fancy as Frank's though!

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Post by sabamfa Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:38 pm

Thanks, Frank!

How confident are you in the early spring? I'm getting married in mid-April and I'm already stressed about the weather!

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Post by frank 638 Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:23 pm

joe cioffi just put out his winter 2016-2017 winter forecast for nj ny and longisland on his facebook page.For nyc long island and parts of jersey will have average snowfall to slightly above normal snowfall (25 to 30 inches ).For northern new jersey and north and west there snowfall will be around 40 to 50 inces .and he also thinks dec will have below normal temps

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Post by billg315 Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:05 pm

Great work Frank, as usual.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:09 pm

@sabamfa wrote:Thanks, Frank!

How confident are you in the early spring? I'm getting married in mid-April and I'm already stressed about the weather!

Generally, pattern should shift to warm weather in early March. As long as it's sunny you should be just fine Very Happy

@frank 638 wrote:joe cioffi just put out his winter 2016-2017 winter forecast for nj  ny and longisland on his facebook page.For nyc long island and parts of jersey will have  average snowfall to slightly above normal snowfall (25 to 30 inches ).For northern new jersey and north and west there snowfall will be around 40 to 50 inces .and he also thinks dec will have below normal temps

Sounds like another winter outlook I know about...

@billg315 wrote:Great work Frank, as usual.

Thank you!

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