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November 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:45 am

Happy Turkey Day Everyone#
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:27 pm

Significant rain on the way Tuesday-Thursday next week. Close to 3 inches in some spots. A very moist air flow coming from the south thanks to position of the High Pressure. Some models have rain last through much of Thursday, while the GFS ends rain by 9am Thursday. Either way, at least 2 inches of rain looks likely. Tuesday being the worst.

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Ecmwf_tprecip_nj_27

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Post by frank 638 Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:01 pm

If only this was snow we would be talking about feet instead of inches

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:49 am

Beautiful day!

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 27, 2016 1:09 pm

Big Rains incoming this week

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 CyR7xBaWEAAdhzc

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:32 pm

Hit 51* today....sad day..boat out of water today and put away in the driveway...but a good day for husband and son to winterize it and me to decorate outside!! Let the cold come .....
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:28 pm

Going to be a mild week. MON-FRI expected 500mb pattern. Trough in the west = warmth on the east.
 
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:14 pm

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 CyTsYlaUkAAJotz

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Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 28, 2016 6:04 am

23.3, 90%, 29.89 F

Soaking rains coming will be welcome to start ending the drought up here.Reservoirs are less than 50%.
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 28, 2016 7:38 am

27* for me low and heavy frost!!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 28, 2016 7:40 am

Wow 06z gfs has two heavy hits of rain in two rounds one tomorrow and one we thurs totaling up to about 4 inches. Man if it could only b snow.
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Post by Dtone Mon Nov 28, 2016 7:52 am

39* here.
First freeze will have to wait till Dec this year.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:17 am

My low was 26° frost everywhere. Now 36°
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:00 am

Going to be very wet the next few days!

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 CyWv9i8UsAAvyYQ

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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:51 pm

You can see the american models have heaviest precip axis into the N NJ, the HV, and CT; whereas, the foreign models have the heaviest axis further south through central NJ, NYC metro, S CT, and LI. Either way a cold wet raw few days are coming for all. RGEM only goes out to 12z Wed. Extrapolated it too is in line with the CMC. Tuesday through Thursday

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Nam_4k10
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November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Cmc_to10
November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Rgem_t10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:20 pm

latest euro

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Ecmwf_17

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 28, 2016 2:25 pm

Madonne, going to downpour it looks like. 2+ inches of rain looking likely for many.

Timing:

7am Tuesday to 3-4am Wednesday is Wave 1

10am Wednesday to 7am Thursday is Wave 2

Wave 2 is the bigger wave with heavy rain probable.

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Post by Quietace Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:31 pm

WWA up for 1-3" of sleet and up to two tenths of a inch of ice accumulation. What I have learned during the past year up here is these things usually under preform with snow and over preform with frz rain and ice. Will see how things play out here in the valley.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 28, 2016 4:43 pm

@Quietace wrote:WWA up for 1-3" of sleet and up to two tenths of a inch of ice accumulation. What I have learned during the past year up here is these things usually under preform with snow and over preform with frz rain and ice. Will see how things play out here in the valley.

rollseyes

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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:22 am

Wow, temp shot up 15 degrees overnight now 45.5.90%, 29.77 F. Would rather have snow but we do need a lot of liquid to fill those reservoirs.No rain as of yet.
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Post by Quietace Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:WWA up for 1-3" of sleet and up to two tenths of a inch of ice accumulation. What I have learned during the past year up here is these things usually under preform with snow and over preform with frz rain and ice. Will see how things play out here in the valley.

rollseyes

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Giphy

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Post by Dtone Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:38 am

Cloudy and 56*
Low was 51 at midnight.

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:26 am

Rain has commenced here in NW BC/NE NJ

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:41 am

Light light drizzle
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:13 am

Yea....it's going to be a long, wet day.

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