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November 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:05 pm

Under forcasted just a little in your scroll Frank ya think? Who knew, nasty rainy cold day. Man if it had only been snow!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:42 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Under forcasted just a little in your scroll Frank ya think? Who knew, nasty rainy cold day.  Man if it had only been snow!

yep for some of us would have been over 2 feet!! affraid
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:19 am

descent chance for some mood flakes sat night thru Monday morning plus a nice cool down of -5 to 10 departures for several days.
November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_48
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:13 am

34* with frost tis morning nice fall chill.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:44 am

22 here at my parent's house Very Happy By the way, I'm going to post a video later today about the snow that will be affecting our most northwestern members tomorrow evening. It should also be a nice learning tool demonstrating a new concept. Please visit the link below for a bit of a precursor Wink

http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Slantwise_convection

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:05 pm

Euro Parallels from JB - nice transition

December to remember? think so here peeps!

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Peps_z500a_nh_432(9)

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Peps_z500a_nh_600(11)

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Peps_z500a_nh_768(14)

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Peps_z500a_nh_936(15)

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Peps_z500a_nh_1104(15)

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:21 pm

Beautiful Day sunny and currently 67* and I had to mow the lawn!!!
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:25 pm

Mugs what really stands out are the higher Heights in the northern latitudes and lower Heights across the u.s. plus the absence of the South East Ridge. Very el Nino like. Remember as we head into December we dont need arctic air, we can do well with Canadian Air settling Under The Ridge and entering into the trough. The pac looks active so we just need the timing to be right and then we'll have a December to remember as you say mugs
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:28 pm

Al I put those maps in the wrong thread!!
Sunday is going to feel wicked with winds up in the 30 mph gust range and temps inn the mid 40's 
Al so true 93-94 esq set up where we establish an epo and have a big block over the top allowing things top cut under. NPAC actually looks and should subsidin early Dec and then we get part two with colder air, shorter wavelengths and didid longer nights.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:57 pm

FIRST ONE OF THE YEAR LADIES AND GENTS!!! FROM MY FACEBOOK:

As promised, here are my initial thoughts for the light snow event tomorrow. Showers will move in from west to east during the mid to late afternoon and early evening with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50's. The cold front will pass through the region approximately an hour or so BEFORE the times shown for the change to snow. Once that front passes, the wind will rapidly become gusty as the temperatures quickly fall. While the period of snow will only be about three, maybe four hours before it wraps up, the intensity could be quite surprising. There will likely be times where the snow becomes heavy, and when combined with the gusty winds (sustained 25-35 mph, gusts over 40 at times), visibility will be significantly reduced. A situation like this also arises a concern for black ice development, especially after midnight tomorrow. Quick accumulations on grassy surfaces are what I'm expecting, with some accumulation on roads, especially secondary and tertiary. If I have to make any changes to this forecast, I will do so. Happy kickoff to Winter!!!
NOTE: THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AFTER THIS PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT ADD ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THOSE SEEN HERE, DURING WHICH VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WIND. HOWEVER, I AM ONLY DOING A FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD SEEN HERE, AS I FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL.

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Slide110
November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Slide210

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:32 pm

Interesting maps. I'm not sure there's enough QPF available to call for anything more than an inch or two, but I haven't looked at models today. I do agree with the location of where snow could accumulate.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:07 pm

I think I could be a little high with the range going up to 3, but I also think the dynamics are being under-modeled so we'll see how it turns out haha I was supposed to do a video for you guys today as to why, but things got busy for me unexpectedly :/

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:54 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I think I could be a little high with the range going up to 3, but I also think the dynamics are being under-modeled so we'll see how it turns out haha I was supposed to do a video for you guys today as to why, but things got busy for me unexpectedly :/

I concur with this RB - the lakes are like a hot tub and when you have a such strong winds aloft the precip WILL be carried to Jersey. Maybe a bit east with teh 3" but the dynamics with tis system are under modelled. LES is going to be cranking big time!
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November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 IMG_20161118_174913.thumb.jpg.8fdcf4ccb9d15064642d81f7d201a03a

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:26 pm

Mugs, my forecast isn't based on any lake enhancement; it's instead forced by the dynamics of the synoptic system itself. The lake effect/enhancement comes after that. But I agree that's going to crank as well

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:45 pm

Ohhh rb got ya. that is great. sorry about this

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:05 pm

No worries!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:59 am

Flakes may be flying late tonight into early tomorrow morning. A coating is possible, especially for those N&W of NYC. Here is a look at what the EURO is showing.

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Eurosnow

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Eurosnow2

Notice the heavier precip returns near Albany. This is part of the dynamics RB spoke about when he issued his snowfall map. Parts of central NY and southwest New England could see a minor accumulation as a result of this enhancement of snowfall.

I think the more impressive story for our area will be the temperature swings from 60's to 30's. Here is a look at high temperatures for today. However, notice the cold temps in western PA. The front is quickly approaching.

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Hrrr1

Temps overnight (front not fully through LI yet)

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Hrrr2

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:58 am

Snow accumulations from the HWRF. LES (lake effect snow) is going to bring heavy accumulations to parts of Upstate NY. Some streamers may even try to reach the coast.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:34 pm

The Thanksgiving Day storm looks very unorganized on the models. We'll most likely see an overcast day with frequent rain showers, steady at times, but should be less than 1 inch of rainfall. The timing really sucks. Looks like a morning and early afternoon event. Maybe it will change.

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Post by amugs Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:03 pm

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 IMG_4090.thumb.PNG.57f88d462dbd7401ceb8470dc6a81dd6

Surprises N&W tomorrow dustings are in teh cards

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:14 pm

I am so sorry everybody! I have been trying to get my video posted all afternoon so you could see it before the event, but unfortunately I am having some technical difficulties. Please reference my final calls for tonight, and I'll try to get my video posted as soon as possible, even if it ends up being after the fact. Once you see it, my maps should make more sense. Trying my best, and enjoy the weather!!!!

November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Slide212
November 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Slide311

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 19, 2016 7:44 pm

FIRST FLAKES BABYYYYY!!!!!!! Currently 40° and breezy.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:20 pm

36° with light snow now.

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:49 pm

Looking at the snow map for EPAWA (Frank's former employer), portions of Orange County be see some snow showers tomorrow. SO will CPCantmeasureSnow come out of hibernation tomorrow? Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) I would like to hear your insight on next 1-2 weeks. I remember in 2013 it was the Saturday before Thanksgiving that you came out of hibernation after eight months.

Also, I am going to Philly tomorrow via Amtrak. Any chance I see some passing snow showers on the way there?

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Post by frank 638 Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:53 pm

A beautiful day today was many people around my area was putting up Christmas decorations we had a high of 61 deg .cloudy now and 55 deg I hope we see a snow flurries or even a squall for tom and Mon

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