November 2016 Observations & Discussions
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NjWeatherGuy
1190ftalt
jrollins628
jmanley32
Radz
algae888
rb924119
Quietace
snow247
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
Dtone
UnionWX
frank 638
CPcantmeasuresnow
dkodgis
skinsfan1177
amugs
docstox12
Frank_Wx
Math23x7
25 posters
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
weatherwatchermom wrote:We had 2.04 inches of rain today...Janet..thank you for recommending my weather system...I love it!!
You're welcome! Here are reports from Upton:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Wow, just got home to see 3.15" total rainfall today!
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Under forcasted just a little in your scroll Frank ya think? Who knew, nasty rainy cold day. Man if it had only been snow!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Under forcasted just a little in your scroll Frank ya think? Who knew, nasty rainy cold day. Man if it had only been snow!
yep for some of us would have been over 2 feet!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
descent chance for some mood flakes sat night thru Monday morning plus a nice cool down of -5 to 10 departures for several days.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
34* with frost tis morning nice fall chill.
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
22 here at my parent's house By the way, I'm going to post a video later today about the snow that will be affecting our most northwestern members tomorrow evening. It should also be a nice learning tool demonstrating a new concept. Please visit the link below for a bit of a precursor
http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Slantwise_convection
http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Slantwise_convection
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Euro Parallels from JB - nice transition
December to remember? think so here peeps!
December to remember? think so here peeps!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Beautiful Day sunny and currently 67* and I had to mow the lawn!!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Mugs what really stands out are the higher Heights in the northern latitudes and lower Heights across the u.s. plus the absence of the South East Ridge. Very el Nino like. Remember as we head into December we dont need arctic air, we can do well with Canadian Air settling Under The Ridge and entering into the trough. The pac looks active so we just need the timing to be right and then we'll have a December to remember as you say mugs
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Al I put those maps in the wrong thread!!
Sunday is going to feel wicked with winds up in the 30 mph gust range and temps inn the mid 40's
Al so true 93-94 esq set up where we establish an epo and have a big block over the top allowing things top cut under. NPAC actually looks and should subsidin early Dec and then we get part two with colder air, shorter wavelengths and didid longer nights.
Sunday is going to feel wicked with winds up in the 30 mph gust range and temps inn the mid 40's
Al so true 93-94 esq set up where we establish an epo and have a big block over the top allowing things top cut under. NPAC actually looks and should subsidin early Dec and then we get part two with colder air, shorter wavelengths and didid longer nights.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
FIRST ONE OF THE YEAR LADIES AND GENTS!!! FROM MY FACEBOOK:
As promised, here are my initial thoughts for the light snow event tomorrow. Showers will move in from west to east during the mid to late afternoon and early evening with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50's. The cold front will pass through the region approximately an hour or so BEFORE the times shown for the change to snow. Once that front passes, the wind will rapidly become gusty as the temperatures quickly fall. While the period of snow will only be about three, maybe four hours before it wraps up, the intensity could be quite surprising. There will likely be times where the snow becomes heavy, and when combined with the gusty winds (sustained 25-35 mph, gusts over 40 at times), visibility will be significantly reduced. A situation like this also arises a concern for black ice development, especially after midnight tomorrow. Quick accumulations on grassy surfaces are what I'm expecting, with some accumulation on roads, especially secondary and tertiary. If I have to make any changes to this forecast, I will do so. Happy kickoff to Winter!!!
NOTE: THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AFTER THIS PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT ADD ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THOSE SEEN HERE, DURING WHICH VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WIND. HOWEVER, I AM ONLY DOING A FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD SEEN HERE, AS I FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL.
As promised, here are my initial thoughts for the light snow event tomorrow. Showers will move in from west to east during the mid to late afternoon and early evening with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50's. The cold front will pass through the region approximately an hour or so BEFORE the times shown for the change to snow. Once that front passes, the wind will rapidly become gusty as the temperatures quickly fall. While the period of snow will only be about three, maybe four hours before it wraps up, the intensity could be quite surprising. There will likely be times where the snow becomes heavy, and when combined with the gusty winds (sustained 25-35 mph, gusts over 40 at times), visibility will be significantly reduced. A situation like this also arises a concern for black ice development, especially after midnight tomorrow. Quick accumulations on grassy surfaces are what I'm expecting, with some accumulation on roads, especially secondary and tertiary. If I have to make any changes to this forecast, I will do so. Happy kickoff to Winter!!!
NOTE: THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AFTER THIS PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT ADD ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THOSE SEEN HERE, DURING WHICH VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WIND. HOWEVER, I AM ONLY DOING A FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD SEEN HERE, AS I FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Interesting maps. I'm not sure there's enough QPF available to call for anything more than an inch or two, but I haven't looked at models today. I do agree with the location of where snow could accumulate.
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
I think I could be a little high with the range going up to 3, but I also think the dynamics are being under-modeled so we'll see how it turns out haha I was supposed to do a video for you guys today as to why, but things got busy for me unexpectedly :/
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:I think I could be a little high with the range going up to 3, but I also think the dynamics are being under-modeled so we'll see how it turns out haha I was supposed to do a video for you guys today as to why, but things got busy for me unexpectedly :/
I concur with this RB - the lakes are like a hot tub and when you have a such strong winds aloft the precip WILL be carried to Jersey. Maybe a bit east with teh 3" but the dynamics with tis system are under modelled. LES is going to be cranking big time!
RGEM
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Mugs, my forecast isn't based on any lake enhancement; it's instead forced by the dynamics of the synoptic system itself. The lake effect/enhancement comes after that. But I agree that's going to crank as well
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Ohhh rb got ya. that is great. sorry about this
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
No worries!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Flakes may be flying late tonight into early tomorrow morning. A coating is possible, especially for those N&W of NYC. Here is a look at what the EURO is showing.
Notice the heavier precip returns near Albany. This is part of the dynamics RB spoke about when he issued his snowfall map. Parts of central NY and southwest New England could see a minor accumulation as a result of this enhancement of snowfall.
I think the more impressive story for our area will be the temperature swings from 60's to 30's. Here is a look at high temperatures for today. However, notice the cold temps in western PA. The front is quickly approaching.
Temps overnight (front not fully through LI yet)
Notice the heavier precip returns near Albany. This is part of the dynamics RB spoke about when he issued his snowfall map. Parts of central NY and southwest New England could see a minor accumulation as a result of this enhancement of snowfall.
I think the more impressive story for our area will be the temperature swings from 60's to 30's. Here is a look at high temperatures for today. However, notice the cold temps in western PA. The front is quickly approaching.
Temps overnight (front not fully through LI yet)
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Snow accumulations from the HWRF. LES (lake effect snow) is going to bring heavy accumulations to parts of Upstate NY. Some streamers may even try to reach the coast.
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
The Thanksgiving Day storm looks very unorganized on the models. We'll most likely see an overcast day with frequent rain showers, steady at times, but should be less than 1 inch of rainfall. The timing really sucks. Looks like a morning and early afternoon event. Maybe it will change.
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Surprises N&W tomorrow dustings are in teh cards
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
I am so sorry everybody! I have been trying to get my video posted all afternoon so you could see it before the event, but unfortunately I am having some technical difficulties. Please reference my final calls for tonight, and I'll try to get my video posted as soon as possible, even if it ends up being after the fact. Once you see it, my maps should make more sense. Trying my best, and enjoy the weather!!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
FIRST FLAKES BABYYYYY!!!!!!! Currently 40° and breezy.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
36° with light snow now.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
Looking at the snow map for EPAWA (Frank's former employer), portions of Orange County be see some snow showers tomorrow. SO will CPCantmeasureSnow come out of hibernation tomorrow? Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) I would like to hear your insight on next 1-2 weeks. I remember in 2013 it was the Saturday before Thanksgiving that you came out of hibernation after eight months.
Also, I am going to Philly tomorrow via Amtrak. Any chance I see some passing snow showers on the way there?
Also, I am going to Philly tomorrow via Amtrak. Any chance I see some passing snow showers on the way there?
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 2016 Observations & Discussions
A beautiful day today was many people around my area was putting up Christmas decorations we had a high of 61 deg .cloudy now and 55 deg I hope we see a snow flurries or even a squall for tom and Mon
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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