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December 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:44 pm

And so begins the month we can't stop talking about: December!

This is how the December 2015 thread began: With an ironic post from Janet.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Njstro10

Last December ended 13.3 degrees above average: 50.8, beating the old record of 44.1 in December 2001.  29 out of 31 days were at least 5 degrees above average.  And the other two were a couple of degrees above average.  The entire month came and went without a freezing temperature in NYC.

A month ago, Frank pledged this:

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Frankp10

I don't think we'll see a big cold shot outside of something transient mid-month.

I posted this a few weeks ago and it is slightly modified based on error corrections.  You can visit the thread for details but these are some NYC December statistics since 1950.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Decemb10

May the odds be ever on our favor for some old-fashioned cold in time for Christmas!

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Post by dkodgis Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:38 am

If we are all outside on Dec 25 in polo shirts and barbequing on the deck with 70 degree weather, I think anyone will say global warming is real (even skeptics).
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:11 am

Warm start. lol
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:38 am

46* at 7AM this morning - feels more like early April

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:50 am

I'm keeping my mouth shut! silent

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:43 pm

I'm betting this December will make it 18 months in a row of above normal temperatures but it can't possibly be worse than last December when the average temperature was a few degrees from a normal April. At least I hope it can't.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:48 pm

November maps

U.S. Precip from normal

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Last1mPDeptUS

Northeast Precip from normal

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Last1mPDeptNRCC

U.S. Temp from normal:

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Last1mTDeptUS

Northeast Temp from normal:

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Last1mTDeptNRCC

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:29 am

Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Wink Wink Wink Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:32 am

@rb924119 wrote:Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Wink Wink Wink Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe

Yes sir...see my response to your video in the LR thread Ray

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Wink Wink Wink Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe

Yes sir...see my response to your video in the LR thread Ray

Seent it aha My response to your most recent is there now as well :p

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:04 am

Ray 12K NAM is listening to you - HAHAAHA as scott pointed out here we go!!

December 2016 Observations & Discussions IMG_4165.thumb.PNG.ebef6f2f3fe81148db2e6dd645d01a0d

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:09 pm

12z NAM suggests <1" of snow will fall across our NW areas Monday morning

December 2016 Observations & Discussions CyxGwJ5WgAAWG_S

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:17 pm

The RGEM is a bit more aggressive

December 2016 Observations & Discussions 15304146_10100691663268785_899885918183989547_o

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:24 pm

NAMER

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_asnow_neus_17

Rb calling it again here peeps

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:27 pm

Started a thread for Monday. Another thread may be started for Wednesday, but right now, models are too warm. The High to the north is too weak and the southerly flow of mild air overpowers potential CAD.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:08 pm

Well, the first four days of December are without question "cooler" than the first four days of last December.

Now, this has been brought up by CP that the last 17 months at CPK have averaged above normal.  Well what I just did was take a look at what was the warmest year on record in NYC, 2012, and examined it in further detail.  The NWS simply takes the average of the months and rounds it to the nearest tenth of a degree.  While it will say it averaged 57.3, I took the sum of the highs and lows of every day that year, and when you average them out, it actually comes out to ~57.27596.  Summing up the temperatures from every day this year through November, if the December average temperature is at least ~39.0484 degrees, than statistically, 2016 will overtake 2012 as the warmest year on record in NYC, even if Upton says it's a tie.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:24 pm

i just put up my outside christmas lights what a perfect day for that now i am ready for snow

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:07 pm

@frank 638 wrote:i just put up my outside christmas lights what a perfect day for that now i am ready for snow

Same here, almost done. I like to start it as the sun goes down so I can see how they look.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:07 am

Ice rink up yesterday - last three years I put them up before the Arctic thump - my neighbor swears this is real early and said are you sure? I said next weekend 12-9ish i'll be skating on this 18'x40' sucker - they looked at me bewildered!

Okay N & W again Tomorrow - this one could be the same for N&W as we have a LP sliding off the NJ Coast. May start a thread.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:57 am

22.4, 89%, 29.86 R.

Got a WWA up here for maybe an inch tonite.Cold coming and maybe more snow Sunday nite.Hey, at least its a wintry December so far up here.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:11 am

Definetly a wintry feel down here 31° this morning frost on cars
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:14 am

Lots of frost around this morning. Going to warm up as a storm moves through this afternoon bringing mainly rain.

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Post by oldtimer Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:19 am

Nice to know you are getting in the Christmas spirit up there Doc. It's going to be awhile for me on the coastal plain for me. Gee you got more snow coming tonight. Nice.....

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Post by docstox12 Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:50 am

@oldtimer wrote:Nice to know you are getting in the Christmas spirit up there Doc.  It's going to be awhile for me on the coastal plain for me. Gee you got more snow coming tonight.  Nice.....

Hi,Oldtimer, yeah, the last few weeks have been a classic "more snow N and W of the City" type scenarios like back in the 50's and 60's.Brings to mind December 1966 when we visited my Uncles farm up in Westtown NY. right near High Point.We in Fort Lee maybe had a slushy inch or two on the ground while my Uncle had over 24 inches with constant snow showers, blowing and drifting.Yep, that's the way it used to be.Anyway, don't lose hope, the trends these days have been favoring you.look at last January's blizzard, I only got 10 inches,lol.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:41 pm

Check out these high temps for this week...brrr

Thursday

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs_t2m_b_nj_9

Friday

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs_t2m_b_nj_13

Saturday

December 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs_t2m_b_nj_17

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