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Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:24 pm

Snow showers and a light accumulation is possible Monday morning for those N&W of NYC. NEPA, NW NJ, and all counties from Westchester-Rockland on north specifically stand the best chance to see snow.

RGEM 4am Monday

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14

7am Monday

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14

GFS 850mb temps

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations 850mb

925mb temps

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations 925

Dew Points

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Dew_points

All valid for 7am.

No snow map for this event. Most places will be lucky to see 1 inch. Higher elevations in NEPA maybe 2 inches. Maybe this trends stronger tomorrow, but not a lot of juice behind this.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:25 pm

RPM Model snow amounts

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations 584342628d8bf_rpmtotalsnow2.png.a9bdfa853f94203f3b05c7a6644d2379

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:55 pm

Thanks for starting another thread for this, Frank! I was going to ask you before I posted my map haha

I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:

Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Slide113

I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:00 pm

Btw, Mugs, thanks for the compliments!! Thumbs up Thumbs up

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:41 pm

GFS has 0 inches of snow while RGEM has 2-3" of snow early Monday morning.

Glad to see our models have a clue.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS has 0 inches of snow while RGEM has 2-3" of snow early Monday morning.

Glad to see our models have a clue.

should we expect any differently going from the rest of this past year? LOL

I would just like to see some snow flakes, a dusting to an inch is alot more than last year in Dec. let alone not mention the aweful temps.
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:54 pm

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Rgem_asnow_neus_16

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:42 am

Mood flakes. Anything more is the cherry or the icing. N&W have the best chance for the cherry or the icing.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:27 am

GFS took a step toward other guidance with showing a wetter system tomorrow. Now has a coating to an inch N&W of the NYC. Some snow or rain showers for NYC and everyone else. Moves in between 4 and 7am.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

This falls in line with the NAM. So, I would go with a C-2" N&W of NYC, including NW NJ, and little to no accumulation everywhere else

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120406/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:18 am

12z NAM holds serve.

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Namconus_asnow_neus_12

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:07 pm

Not totally it was showing some snow for so there wc and nyc and now nothing darn. Oh well.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:08 pm

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Screen16

Still liking where this is heading, generally, in the modeling ;p ;p remember; SNEAKY lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:01 pm

I'll take this over last December Very Happy

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:16 pm

True enough frank. Just finished visit Santa with my daughter and eating at cross county mall in yonkers and it actually feels a bit like winter.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:21 pm

Have to look at some more guidance, but I might be too low with numbers again with this one. Dendrite growth layer will be tapped and with lower level temps between 0 and -5C I'm thinking aggregates of dendrites could fall, especially across the northern tier of Pa, northwestern NJ, and the Mid-Hudson Valley, similar to the last event, which would really stack up quick.

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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:16 pm

NAM continues to cut back for this. Now no accumulation for anyone except maybe Doc and CP.
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:16 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Thanks for starting another thread for this, Frank! I was going to ask you before I posted my map haha

I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:

Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Slide113

I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.

Thanks for using this map. I live so far west of everybody else that I'm always guessing what'll happen around here.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:19 pm

I like the hrrr for tonight has snow up to coast starting around or just after midnight.
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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:20 pm

35 here currently.
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:26 pm

31 here in Binghamton, NY. Expecting 1-2" tonight into tomorrow morning.
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Post by Radz Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:46 pm

33.1 here now after a high of 42.4
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Post by marin1804 Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:05 pm

29 here and overcast.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:35 pm

Remember I added the radar links at the top of the forum. Feel free to check them out.

This is dropping high snow amounts in the Great Lakes region.That is probably passing to our north. But there is plenty of moisture gathering in the southwest.

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Ref_qc.9

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:36 pm

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations RAD_MOS_REG_NE_WINTER_ANI.thumb.gif.4fea07b3282465747f48400ee5857cf1

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:38 pm

HRRR @ 4:00am tomorrow. You can see where the rain/snow line is.

Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations Hrrr_ref_nj_11

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