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Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end  thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years

Could you post that discussion? I wonder why they're completely throwing it away? I can understand the QPF forecast, but the synoptic development I actually agree with; the GFS too, to be honest.
At the surface, this will be reflected as area of low pressure that
will track northeast across The Great Lakes and into eastern Canada
Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will approach from the
southwest during the same time, passing through the region on
Monday. This type of fast flow with the low tracking to the
northwest of the area is typically not conducive for a significant
snowfall event, especially at this time of year due to a return
flow developing off of warmer waters. The high is also transient
in nature and builds quickly off the coast on Sunday. There are
though differences amongst the models in how quickly the cold air
erodes over the region Sunday night into Monday morning, with the
operational NAM the most aggressive, and the GFS and ECMWF cold
enough to support several inches of snowfall across the interior.
There is also another potential wrinkle with weak low pressure
forming to the south along the warm front Monday morning. This
could potentially hold in the cold air a bit longer. The exact
timing of when the boundary layer warms sufficiently for a
changeover to rain is critical and allows for a fair amount of
uncertainty in the forecast. For the time, have taken a multi
model ensemble approach, discounting the warm NAM, for a Ptype
forecast. This results in a quick changeover to rain at the coast
Sunday night, and then a northward transition across the Lower
Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut near daybreak. A
deviation by 1-2 hours with strong overrunning precipitation can
have a significant consequence. At this time,the forecast calls
for 2 to 4 inches across northern portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley and interior southern Connecticut, with less than an inch
at the immediate coast. The trailing cold front passes through in
the late afternoon/early evening Monday with conditions drying
from west to east. Total liquid equivalent looks to be 0.50 to
0.75 inches.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:59 pm

Thanks, Al! I would think it would be too warm too, but based on the look of the high it leads me to believe that it is at the very least plausible.

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Thanks, Al! I would think it would be too warm too, but based on the look of the high it leads me to believe that it is at the very least plausible.
You're welcome Yeah there are still several options on the table but definitely not an all snow event for the coast. Still a very good chance for most of the area to see their first accumulating snow
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Post by frank 638 Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:21 pm

Do u think we will see winter weather advisory for tomorrow night

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:39 am

News12 westchester yes I know they are not the best but saying monday morning commute going to be problematic with slushy snow with ice on top then rain. Did not specify how far south. I have to be at the testing center by 730 am so I am really hoping driving will not be too bad.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:40 am

@frank 638 wrote:Do u think we will see winter weather advisory for tomorrow night
Saturday night? No because this is a sunday monday system.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 10, 2016 5:55 am

NWS bumped my area from 2 to 4 yesterday to 4 to 6 total for the event but still a changeover to rain on Monday morning.
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:59 am

They changed my 1-3 to less than one inch
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:03 am

Yeah next to nothing for NJ, northern trend continues. It's just moving so fast that there's little accumulation around here due to the sw flow and changeover to rain. Oh, well, we wait.....

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:44 am

Funny thing, NWS keeps bumping me up, now 4 to 7 before the changeover.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:51 am

@docstox12 wrote:Funny thing, NWS keeps bumping me up, now 4 to 7 before the changeover.

I've seen a ot of these type setups through the years in these parts Doc, my uneducated guess would be 3-5 with a change to light rain towards the end and the temps top out at 34 or so before precip ends.

Hope I'm low balling it.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:52 am

Doc. Sounds good. Just hope not much rain for you after the change over so you can keep some

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:56 am

A 1st call snow map was posted in a separate thread. Overall, this will be a disrupting storm Monday morning with snow changing to rain. The change to rain will occur in the overnight hours so in some places it may not be too bad.

Set-up is not favorable for accumulating snow along the coast and immediate NYC area.

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:30 am

The rgem is nice for areas just away from the coast mostly Northern New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley. 2-6 inches with the higher amounts of the further away from the coast you are with some 8-inch amounts in northeast PA. Nam also trending colder the last several runs. Also look for some snow showers late this afternoon that could leave a dusting to an inch or two in parts of the area
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:32 am

@algae888 wrote:The rgem is nice for areas just away from the coast mostly Northern New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley. 2-6 inches with the higher amounts of the further away from the coast you are with some 8-inch amounts in northeast PA. Nam also trending colder the last several runs. Also look for some snow showers late this afternoon that could leave a dusting to an inch or two in parts of the area

YUP here it is

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 4 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:49 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Funny thing, NWS keeps bumping me up, now 4 to 7 before the changeover.

I've seen a ot of these type setups through the years in these parts Doc, my uneducated guess would be 3-5 with a change to light rain towards the end and the temps top out at 34 or so before precip ends.

Hope I'm low balling it.

OK, CP, I think you are right with this one.Lets hope more towards the 5 inches.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:50 am

@oldtimer wrote:Doc. Sounds good.  Just hope not much rain for you after the change over so you can keep some

OK, Oldtimer, good luck to everybody hope it trends colder so all can share the wealth.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:58 am

GFS looks about the same. Coating to 1 inch NYC Metro, and 2-4" N&W.

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:15 am

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 4 Img_2045Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 4 Img_2045

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Dec 10, 2016 4:05 pm

@amugs wrote:Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 4 Img_2045Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 4 Img_2045


Hope the next one will get us!!
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:49 pm

CMC continues to be very snowy for this event.

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 4 Img_5613
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:58 pm

Light snow has begun in Binghamton, NY. Temp 28 degrees
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:13 pm

The Canadian suites, RGEM included, are very snowy. They've been like that all week. Don't buy it.

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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:52 pm

Precip shield is filling in and moving east. Snow is becoming steady now and picking up in intensity. Temp rose to 29 before the snow started under thick cloud cover, now down to 24 after a quick drop once the snow started.
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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 11, 2016 2:01 pm

light snow, 32*
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