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Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:14 pm

Peeps,
Time to get er  done.
Looks like what Frank said a 2-4" accumulating snow fir nyc metro and just outside N&W of Interstate 80 is 3-6". 
Cold arctic air stays entrenched and waa (warm air advwction (.warm air from a weak system sliding in from the Ohio Valley drives warm air over the dense arctic  air. When it starts snowing Friday night it look to bebabout 18-20 degrees.

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:15 pm

SREFS are very good at this stage
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations Srefus10

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:16 pm

Mugs how about us below the Driscoll Bridge...
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:26 pm

I'd say a 2-4" snow too. All depends on timing, faster the waa arrives as the primary low is still far away the more yo the higher range you can accumulate, the slower and warmer air intrusion works its way north faster then the less we get. 
Right now I am leaning as most waa events occur ahead of the scheduled model, guidance time frame. 
Time will tell Momma. 
SATURDAY morning is not going to be good travelling at all imo and for me I get 2 snowstorms in three years on my bday wopop woop!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:32 pm

@amugs wrote:I'd say a 2-4" snow too. All depends on timing, faster the waa arrives as the primary low is still far away the more yo the higher range you can accumulate, the slower and warmer air intrusion works its way north faster then the less we get. 
Right now I am leaning as most waa events occur ahead of the scheduled model, guidance time frame. 
Time will tell Momma. 
SATURDAY morning is not going to be good travelling at all imo and for me I get 2 snowstorms in three years on my bday wopop woop!!
Thanks just curious ..got a few things going on. Happy Birthday!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:59 pm

00z GFS Saturday storm shows 3 to 6 inches before changing to rain. Will have a forecast up tomorrow.

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 5850c332ab2db

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 5850c35a10f89

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 5850c368b561e

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 5850c39f61329


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:12 pm

00z GFS snow map

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations Nice.png.b80db115150d19b8fe488eb09143dd80

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:19 pm


Here is a look at 925mb temps between 7am and 10am on the 00z GFS. One reason why LI sees less accumulation is because of the above freezing temps by mid morning, while most of NNJ and points north are still cold enough for snow. NYC is right on the line. On the 18z GFS, this line was further south at 10:00am so a slight warm trend on tonight's GFS despite the higher snow amounts.

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 925.thumb.PNG.4b0bb81b4f95255e1e885cb79361337e

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 5850c83b28d23_92510am.thumb.PNG.1fc1ac68c48e04cbb9621c210722ac77

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Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:25 pm

CMC shows 3-5 inches for NYC with more to the north and west
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:25 pm

00z CMC shows 3 to 6" snowfall too. Looks like models are trending wetter tonight while cold air is in place. That could do with the frontogenesis models are realizing that exists between the gradient caused by the HP to the NE and southerly winds.

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations 5850c8fb377cb_cmctotalsnow.thumb.png.ee4c517390578628202412883b2b5925

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:30 pm

I am going to bed happy. I said we need to capitalize on the 12th through 18th period while the cold is still here, and at the least we're going to see 2-4" of snow Saturday. Possibly up to 6" in spots.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by snow247 Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:32 pm

ratios?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:33 pm

@snow247 wrote:ratios?

10:1

-Precip is coming from tropical source
-CAD signature not strong
-Southerly winds

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:10 am

Gfs saying snow comes in faster and hit the arctic air mass with warning level snow yippeeeeee!!

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations IMG_4289.PNG.a73d2903933dcdb990249988f8d17958

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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:53 am

^^ 2 waves are included
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:03 am

@Snow88 wrote:^^ 2 waves are included

Got ya - Oh boy happens at 7AM!!

Euro

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations Ecmwf_snow_24_nyc_18.thumb.png.ea43de763eed20146f0dcb1385a22b53

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:19 am

@amugs wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:^^ 2 waves are included

Got ya - Oh boy happens at 7AM!!

Euro

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations Ecmwf_snow_24_nyc_18.thumb.png.ea43de763eed20146f0dcb1385a22b53

Doesn't look right for me
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:26 am

You can tell the GFS is trending warmer to look like the EURO.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:03 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:^^ 2 waves are included

Got ya - Oh boy happens at 7AM!!

Euro

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations Ecmwf_snow_24_nyc_18.thumb.png.ea43de763eed20146f0dcb1385a22b53

Doesn't look right for me

thinking the same thing here Skins
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Post by jake732 Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:10 pm

Screw the euro, it messes everything up Sad Sad
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:You can tell the GFS is trending warmer to look like the EURO.

They are def coming closer in agreement.  Looks like although trending a little warmer overall, the coastal plain has trended a little better as far as accumulations are concerned.  I would say a general 1-3" for the coastal plain and a general 2-5" the further N& W you go. The timing of the precip and the warm nose will be critical as it seems to from like -3-5C to +2-3C in less than 6hrs.  If we can get a burst of heavier QPF come in at the right time lillipops of slight higher totals could happen.  I may make a snow map for this one tonight or in the morning.

Any snow is good snow

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:59 pm

Euro showing the N & W trend for those folks coast is okay this run
WWA snow for coast and city, Southern Rockland, Southern Passaic,  Bergen and LI,  Warnings for Western Passaic through Morris, Sussex and Warren, as well as Orange, Ulster, Sullivan and Northern Rockland in NY

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations Euro_s10

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:08 pm

06z GFS please : ) But I will go by what you guys are saying so I should see probably about 2-4? I think its go be a fine line and as stated when the WAA comes in. Hopefully holds off.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:11 pm

This system could bust low or high. Nothing like taking a stand right? I want to see what the hi res models do over the next 24-48hrs

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:This system could bust low or high.  Nothing like taking a stand right?  I want to see what the hi res models do over the next 24-48hrs

Year ago I do not remember us relying so much on the short range models, like we actually somewhat trust in the NAM (not a model) and the others seem to have gotten better, and usually surprise us. So I agree sroc, will def want see what they show.
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