Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations

Peeps,
Time to get er  done.
Looks like what Frank said a 2-4" accumulating snow fir nyc metro and just outside N&W of Interstate 80 is 3-6". 
Cold arctic air stays entrenched and waa (warm air advwction (.warm air from a weak system sliding in from the Ohio Valley drives warm air over the dense arctic  air. When it starts snowing Friday night it look to bebabout 18-20 degrees.

SREFS are very good at this stage

Mugs how about us below the Driscoll Bridge...

I'd say a 2-4" snow too. All depends on timing, faster the waa arrives as the primary low is still far away the more yo the higher range you can accumulate, the slower and warmer air intrusion works its way north faster then the less we get. 
Right now I am leaning as most waa events occur ahead of the scheduled model, guidance time frame. 
Time will tell Momma. 
SATURDAY morning is not going to be good travelling at all imo and for me I get 2 snowstorms in three years on my bday wopop woop!!

amugs wrote:I'd say a 2-4" snow too. All depends on timing, faster the waa arrives as the primary low is still far away the more yo the higher range you can accumulate, the slower and warmer air intrusion works its way north faster then the less we get. 
Right now I am leaning as most waa events occur ahead of the scheduled model, guidance time frame. 
Time will tell Momma. 
SATURDAY morning is not going to be good travelling at all imo and for me I get 2 snowstorms in three years on my bday wopop woop!!

Thanks just curious ..got a few things going on. Happy Birthday!!

00z GFS Saturday storm shows 3 to 6 inches before changing to rain. Will have a forecast up tomorrow.

00z GFS snow map

Here is a look at 925mb temps between 7am and 10am on the 00z GFS. One reason why LI sees less accumulation is because of the above freezing temps by mid morning, while most of NNJ and points north are still cold enough for snow. NYC is right on the line. On the 18z GFS, this line was further south at 10:00am so a slight warm trend on tonight's GFS despite the higher snow amounts.

CMC shows 3-5 inches for NYC with more to the north and west

00z CMC shows 3 to 6" snowfall too. Looks like models are trending wetter tonight while cold air is in place. That could do with the frontogenesis models are realizing that exists between the gradient caused by the HP to the NE and southerly winds.

I am going to bed happy. I said we need to capitalize on the 12th through 18th period while the cold is still here, and at the least we're going to see 2-4" of snow Saturday. Possibly up to 6" in spots.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ratios?

snow247 wrote:ratios?

10:1

-Precip is coming from tropical source
-CAD signature not strong
-Southerly winds

Gfs saying snow comes in faster and hit the arctic air mass with warning level snow yippeeeeee!!

^^ 2 waves are included

Snow88 wrote:^^ 2 waves are included

Got ya - Oh boy happens at 7AM!!

Euro

amugs wrote:

Snow88 wrote:^^ 2 waves are included

Got ya - Oh boy happens at 7AM!!

Euro

Doesn't look right for me

You can tell the GFS is trending warmer to look like the EURO.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Snow88 wrote:^^ 2 waves are included

Got ya - Oh boy happens at 7AM!!

Euro

Doesn't look right for me

thinking the same thing here Skins

Screw the euro, it messes everything up

Frank_Wx wrote:You can tell the GFS is trending warmer to look like the EURO.

They are def coming closer in agreement.  Looks like although trending a little warmer overall, the coastal plain has trended a little better as far as accumulations are concerned.  I would say a general 1-3" for the coastal plain and a general 2-5" the further N& W you go. The timing of the precip and the warm nose will be critical as it seems to from like -3-5C to +2-3C in less than 6hrs.  If we can get a burst of heavier QPF come in at the right time lillipops of slight higher totals could happen.  I may make a snow map for this one tonight or in the morning.

Any snow is good snow

Euro showing the N & W trend for those folks coast is okay this run
WWA snow for coast and city, Southern Rockland, Southern Passaic,  Bergen and LI,  Warnings for Western Passaic through Morris, Sussex and Warren, as well as Orange, Ulster, Sullivan and Northern Rockland in NY

06z GFS please : ) But I will go by what you guys are saying so I should see probably about 2-4? I think its go be a fine line and as stated when the WAA comes in. Hopefully holds off.

This system could bust low or high. Nothing like taking a stand right? I want to see what the hi res models do over the next 24-48hrs

sroc4 wrote:This system could bust low or high.  Nothing like taking a stand right?  I want to see what the hi res models do over the next 24-48hrs

Year ago I do not remember us relying so much on the short range models, like we actually somewhat trust in the NAM (not a model) and the others seem to have gotten better, and usually surprise us. So I agree sroc, will def want see what they show.