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Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:50 am

Not a lot of changes for my map except I split zone 2 into 2 and 2A.  I think 3 inches along the immediate CT coast, NYC, and LI will be tough therefore I lowered the ceiling.  I am also worried that the timing of the heavier precip could be such that this same area changes over before the heaviest comes in so I also lowered the floor as well.  I am pretty confident that areas N & W of 2A "should" be ok, so I haven't changed anything.  I will also note however that the changes made in 2A were based on a modeling consensus; however, there is still high volatility for zones 2, 2A, and 1.  If the low level cold is delayed at all, an additional of 1-2" on top of these totals could still occur.  With vertical velocities as high as they are forecasted, there will be at least 2-3hrs of heavy precip.  If the cold is delayed even by 1-2hrs along the coast, rates could easily drop that additional 1-2inches in that time frame in these locations under intense snowfall rates.  But as quickly as it comes down it quickly changes to rain and washes away so timing of measurments will be important.  I believe the locations N & W of zones 2A will experience some of these brief but higher snowfall rates; therefore Zones 2 and southern parts of 3 could still benefit from delayed arrival of the warm air.    

Right now I'm betting against this for the coast and LI but it would not surprise me to see it come to fruition.  The idea of a LP pooping(as Mugsy said it overnight lol) off the coast and passing S of LI depicted by the last 2 runs of the RGEM and to a lesser degree some of the other hi-res S/R models is intriguing and could be a part of this delay, but like Frank mentioned the southerly flow will be very strong so it may not matter.  Well see.  

Happy Friday!!  
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Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 Snow_m15

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:23 am

@frank 638 wrote:National weather service has issue a winter weather advisory in effect for the entire area


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy   I know I'm so excited about my 1-2" after 2 days not getting over 25 degrees.  I'm stoked.  Can't wait.............the 1" will bust in my opinion.  maybe a dusting.

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Post by le88kb Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:01 am

Will this rain wash away the snow by Monday ? Bergen county area NJ ? are we going to have to shovel this snow morris county area NJ ?
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:14 am

@le88kb wrote:Will this rain wash away the snow by Monday ? Bergen county area NJ ? are we going to have to shovel this snow morris county area NJ ?

The snow will be all gone by Saturday night.

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:32 am

all nam models at 12z (12k 4k and 3k)  looking like rgem.
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 Nam3km_asnow_neus_31
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 Nam4km_asnow_neus_11
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 Rgem_asnow_neus_15
models trending wetter with system since 00z
my call 2" immediate coast up to 8" nnj  and interior ny.


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:37 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:37 am

Is there a start timeframe?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:40 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Is there a start timeframe?

Between 1am-3am west to east. +/- an hr or so

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:40 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Is there a start timeframe?
mid and 3am. also parts LI could see some enhancement with the first shot of snow. so even though it changes over quickly they could still reach 2-4".
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:43 am

There may actually be an initial shot between 11pm-1am before a brief lull then the bulk of the precip between 1-3am moves in

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:50 am

Not trying to be a party pooper, but I'm not sold on these higher snow totals. The short range has been doing this lately; running up the totals 36-18 hours away from the event only to steadily decline inside of 18 hours. Also, I still feel my thoughts regarding the speed of the warm surge in relation to the moisture have merit, so I am going to play the waiting game for the rest of today's guidance. Still liking my initial call at the moment, although the end result will depend on today's suites.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:01 am

@rb924119 wrote:Not trying to be a party pooper, but I'm not sold on these higher snow totals. The short range has been doing this lately; running up the totals 36-18 hours away from the event only to steadily decline inside of 18 hours. Also, I still feel my thoughts regarding the speed of the warm surge in relation to the moisture have merit, so I am going to play the waiting game for the rest of today's guidance. Still liking my initial call at the moment, although the end result will depend on today's suites.
From this we shall see what the 12&18Z suite of hi res and SR models say.
So far inside 18hrs they are holding and trending a tick wetter.
Models showing low level cold hanging tough until mid-morning for NNJ and NW NJ until mid afternoon.
Equals ice

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 Czzd9JIUAAAmnUP

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 CzzdyiKUoAAtiWL


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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:36 am

Where is Frank's final call map
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:52 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is Frank's final call map

Probably waiting to see some of the 12z runs so he can see if there are any trends before he issues it.

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:52 am

Rgem very snowy for city on west. 4-8". I'm assuming some of that is sleet in the New York City proper. I mentioned this in a previous post that there seems to be a little more enhancement of the precipitation from central Long Island into Northeast New Jersey and Southwest Connecticut any thoughts on this?
Edit. Just guessing here but it could it be ocean enhancement snow on the south South East Wind
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:58 am

@algae888 wrote:Rgem very snowy for city on west. 4-8". I'm assuming some of that is sleet in the New York City proper. I mentioned this in a previous post that there seems to be a little more enhancement of the precipitation from central Long Island into Northeast New Jersey and Southwest Connecticut any thoughts on this?
Edit. Just guessing here but it could it be ocean enhancement snow on the south South East Wind

Here's the MAP

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 5 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:02 am

Todas gfs at 7am sat. has 3" of snow for parts of LI and around an inch in nnj. All the models show this so again in reference to my point about this enhancement over Long Island does anyone have any thoughts on it?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:03 am

@algae888 wrote:Rgem very snowy for city on west. 4-8". I'm assuming some of that is sleet in the New York City proper. I mentioned this in a previous post that there seems to be a little more enhancement of the precipitation from central Long Island into Northeast New Jersey and Southwest Connecticut any thoughts on this?
Edit. Just guessing here but it could it be ocean enhancement snow on the south South East Wind

My guess would be that ocean enhancement is one factor, combined with the convergence of the lowest-level winds (925/surface) coming from the open waters of the ocean then being forced to slow down once they encounter the friction of the land. Basically enhancing the low-level frontogenesis, like a meso-scale coastal front.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:06 am

You see it in areas like Boston a lot with coastal storms, where the cold air draining in from the north runs into the low-level warm advection coming off the water. If you get caught under that band, look out, because that's pretty much like an equivalent to a lake-effect snow band, AS LONG AS THE COLUMN REMAINS COLD ENOUGH.

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:08 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Rgem very snowy for city on west. 4-8". I'm assuming some of that is sleet in the New York City proper. I mentioned this in a previous post that there seems to be a little more enhancement of the precipitation from central Long Island into Northeast New Jersey and Southwest Connecticut any thoughts on this?
Edit. Just guessing here but it could it be ocean enhancement snow on the south South East Wind

My guess would be that ocean enhancement is one factor, combined with the convergence of the lowest-level winds (925/surface) coming from the open waters of the ocean then being forced to slow down once they encounter the friction of the land. Basically enhancing the low-level frontogenesis, like a meso-scale coastal front.
Tku rb. Was kind of thinking that. I've been noticing this on the models for the last few days especially the meso's. Long Island May do very well especially early on with this system
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:18 am

Today's GFS is showing a quarter of an inch of ice for Westchester Rockland and Northern New Jersey. With a frozen ground and fresh snow cover it's going to be hard to get temps above 32 away from urban areas and Long Island.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:21 am


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