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Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:23 am

We are currently in ct at mohegan sun on the 31st floor got to see the snow squall fly in took on video and pics was awesome. I'll try post later headed back to yonkers now.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:24 am

Yep if there are high wind warnings for tonight and sun obviously looks worse I cannot see us not getting our 2nd warning in one week. Pretty rare.
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:26 am

@aiannone wrote:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016

NJZ004-006-103-104-NYZ072-073-075-078>081-176>179-151530-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
854 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016

Snow squalls will move across portions of the Northeast NJ, New
York City, and Long Island through 1030am.

While these snow squalls will be hit and miss and brief.  Visibility
may suddenly drop to near zero in localized squalls, creating
whiteout conditions and icy roads. Also, minor accumulations will
be possible.

2 separate heavy squalls have left a solid coating on everything here in Syosset.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:33 am

I'll issue a final call snow map tomorrow morning. Not much will change, though I may bring the C-1" line further north, and change 4-8" to 3-6" for N&W areas. Models are kinda getting drier.

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I'll issue a final call snow map tomorrow morning. Not much will change, though I may bring the C-1" line further north, and change 4-8" to 3-6" for N&W areas. Models are kinda getting drier.

of course they are. Very Happy

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I'll issue a final call snow map tomorrow morning. Not much will change, though I may bring the C-1" line further north, and change 4-8" to 3-6" for N&W areas. Models are kinda getting drier.

So far they are yes Frank, but look at the vertical velocities between hr 42-54 when the precip is coming in and the freezing line is moving out. There is an strong low level jet streak at this time as well enhancing the vertical motion. I have a feeling the true dynamics are not being picked up on and wont by models. This might be a true nowcast set up. Location, and timing will be everything, but I have a feeling a true thumping could still occur for many locations. GFS trended a little stronger with the pressure gradient between the HP off the coast and the LP to the north however which I dont like. Well see if Euro does the same.

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 Nam_w710
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 Nam_w711
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 Nam_w712
Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 Nam_w713



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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:18 am

For sure Scott. These type of events tend to have enhanced 700mb lift. I always say if you can smell the rain but it's 32 degrees, you'll see heavy snow accumulating quickly. I'll evaluate everything in the morning. I still like the general idea of where I placed the highest snowfall amounts.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:40 pm

18z RGEM snow map

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 15577996_10100704964727555_6842016406430463222_o

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:48 pm

For anybody interested, here's a video I made outlining the thoughts behind my initial forecast for this event:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMG5zZlJCNEVnODA

Any questions or comments please feel free to ask or write!

Enjoy!


Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:52 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:49 pm

Here is one reason I feel inclined to lessen snowfall amounts across the area. Warm air advection working its way north faster on latest guidance.

7am 6z GFS

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 CzvbsphVIAARjbF

7am 12z GFS - notice how warm air is moving in faster.

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 CzvbtaNVEAAMCSz

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:53 pm

I hate you warm air advection!!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jrollins628 Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:59 pm

Well sorc4 if we had blocking we wouldn't have this issue so I guess we have to blame the teleconections that have sucked for the past 5 Years!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:05 pm

@rb924119 wrote:For anybody interested, here's a video I made outlining the thoughts behind my initial forecast for this event:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMG5zZlJCNEVnODA

Any questions or comments please feel free to ask or write!

Enjoy!

Man, you don't miss a beat in these videos. Fantastic.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:06 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I hate you warm air advection!!!

I hate it more.

@jrollins628 wrote:Well sorc4 if we had blocking we wouldn't have this issue so I guess we have to blame the teleconections that have sucked for the past 5 Years!!!

Very true Sad

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:16 pm

@jrollins628 wrote:Well sorc4 if we had blocking we wouldn't have this issue so I guess we have to blame the teleconections that have sucked for the past 5 Years!!!

jroll  The teleconnections in the N Atlantic have def sucked for the past 5yrs but CPK has still managed to be above normal snow for 4 of the last five and 7 of the last 8 yrs, so not every teleconnection has sucked.  So far this month La Nina type conditions has led to a storm track that tracks to the west and unfavorable HP to our east instead of to our N or NE.  

Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 Ln_col10
 Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations - Page 3 La_nin10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:21 pm

@rb924119 wrote:For anybody interested, here's a video I made outlining the thoughts behind my initial forecast for this event:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMG5zZlJCNEVnODA

Any questions or comments please feel free to ask or write!

Enjoy!

Great video rb
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Post by frank 638 Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:45 pm

rb thank u for you video and explaining about our weekend storm what a shame we have this fresh artic air in place and the dam storm goes to our north

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:47 pm

Thanks, guys!

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:51 pm

Great video! And no, not too long or boring! Laughing

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:14 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Great video! And no, not too long or boring! Laughing

I'd argue he could put on a sing or dance performance halfway through. But he keeps it professional. Probably best.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:20 pm

Short range models are the coldest right now. The RGEM tried to develop a low off the coast. That's a big development, because it would prevent winds from turning easterly if true. If the GFS or EURO grab onto this idea tonight then my 1st Call Snow Map won't change.

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Post by sabamfa Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:24 pm

What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:31 pm

Frank Sr models appear to show high winds on sat and sun. I dunno why the warning tonight but looking st the models they have been fairly consistent on a warning level winds both day? Nws funny enpugh makes no mention of any wind threat sat or sun. Gfs showing 925mb sustained ed 60 to 70kts wow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:32 pm

@sabamfa wrote:What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?

Sunday we're looking at rain all day. Between 5-7pm, it could change to snow. Sunday looks like a crappy day

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank Sr models appear to show high winds on sat and sun. I dunno why the warning tonight but looking st the models they have been fairly consistent on a warning level winds both day? Nws funny enpugh makes no mention of any wind threat sat or sun. Gfs showing 925mb sustained ed 60 to 70kts wow.

Yea I think the gradient between the High and front could cause gusts near 50mph or greater Sunday morning.

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