Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@Dunnzoo wrote:Great video! And no, not too long or boring!  

I'd argue he could put on a sing or dance performance halfway through. But he keeps it professional. Probably best.

DEFINITELY best that I don't sing or dance ahaha

And yeah Frank, I saw the RGEM doing that also, but while it could verify, it won't be enough to offset any of the warm advection. It's too meso-scale and shallow at that point to have any sensible impact on the thermal profile, in my opinion.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@sabamfa wrote:What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?

Sunday we're looking at rain all day. Between 5-7pm, it could change to snow. Sunday looks like a crappy day

Yep, nice crappy weekend so I don't feel guilty staying in with the fireplace, decorating the tree and baking cookies!

The GEM suite was much too cold for the last event, and seeing as though I'm using that as an analog for this one given the strong similarities, I suspect it is this time too.

I agree. Too cold, the RGEM is.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@sabamfa wrote:What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?

Sunday we're looking at rain all day. Between 5-7pm, it could change to snow. Sunday looks like a crappy day

Darn. Thanks, Frank.

Wow, SREFS are pretty warm.

The hi rss short range models are showing a meso.low pooping to our SE , off the SNJ coast by AC. The nam 4k and 3k and 22k are all pretty cold in their 0z runs tonight.

This Arctic dense air is going to be tough to scour in NNJ  and LHV, hence we will have some ice accretion.

Dnot really know if globals will catch onto this meso low due to their physics but hi res models need to keep this notion going forward. Gfs has a warm bias? 

4k NAM

3k NAM is even snowier ^

It's our new weenie model.

3k NAM Para where do I sign

Nam Hi Res picking up on cold air hanging in at 12z Saturday

RGEM pops 4he meso low fa at er this run as does hi res nam by the maps posted. Tjis would be a kick in the warm airs groin and shunt the winds more northerly and keeps the waa in DC region

RGEM!!!

@amugs wrote:RGEM!!!

Seems like it's really drying up with the last 24 hours of runs?

Earthlight tweeted that RGEM POPS a meso low South of LI. IF THIS comes to fruition then we we'll  see amounts as the RGEM spit out. Bring g me Barney please

00z GFS

Nice beat me to it Snow^^^^ 
Euro come sit like this and we have a good trend watch dr no put the kabosh on it

Hour 36 -42 moderate to heavy snow in nyc metro, NNJ all, LHV, epa. Looks like.sleet and frz rain after the heavy snow.

I would caution relaying on the meso-low south of LI for a couple of reasons:

1. Easterly and southerly winds at the lower levels look too strong. They could overpower the weak low pressure system.

2. The low gets organized too late. It may benefit New England but not sure it does much for us.

Ray mentioned this too.

We're better off hoping precip is moderate once it arrives so we take advantage of the cold air that way. One reason that can happen is because of the vertical velocities the low level jet may create. 700mb lift is seen in NNJ and SW NY while cold air is still here. This is a 10am graphic, but on the 7am time stamp there's increased VV's over NNJ still. This is likely the main reason why models are honing in on high snow amounts in NNJ and southern NY.

We may have to begin talking more about the ice this storm could present as opposed to the snow. Check out these ice accumulations by the GFS tonight





Long Island and NYC should be ok thanks to heat island effect and those southerly winds...but most of NJ and much of PA could be in trouble. 2-4 inches of snow with a quarter of an inch of ice is no joke!

700mb VV's valid 7am 00z GFS....jackpot NNJ again

Based on the last several posts, I see ice as an emerging potential issue. I notice that Sussex Co. seems to have a bit more(ice) showing on the charts?

National weather service has issue a winter weather advisory in effect for the entire area