Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
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sabamfa
jrollins628
aiannone
RJB8525
rb924119
algae888
frank 638
Dunnzoo
jmanley32
sroc4
jake732
skinsfan1177
snow247
Snow88
Frank_Wx
weatherwatchermom
amugs
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
sabamfa wrote:What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?
Sunday we're looking at rain all day. Between 5-7pm, it could change to snow. Sunday looks like a crappy day
Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
jmanley32 wrote:Frank Sr models appear to show high winds on sat and sun. I dunno why the warning tonight but looking st the models they have been fairly consistent on a warning level winds both day? Nws funny enpugh makes no mention of any wind threat sat or sun. Gfs showing 925mb sustained ed 60 to 70kts wow.
Yea I think the gradient between the High and front could cause gusts near 50mph or greater Sunday morning.
Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:Great video! And no, not too long or boring!
I'd argue he could put on a sing or dance performance halfway through. But he keeps it professional. Probably best.
DEFINITELY best that I don't sing or dance ahaha
And yeah Frank, I saw the RGEM doing that also, but while it could verify, it won't be enough to offset any of the warm advection. It's too meso-scale and shallow at that point to have any sensible impact on the thermal profile, in my opinion.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:sabamfa wrote:What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?
Sunday we're looking at rain all day. Between 5-7pm, it could change to snow. Sunday looks like a crappy day
Yep, nice crappy weekend so I don't feel guilty staying in with the fireplace, decorating the tree and baking cookies!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
The GEM suite was much too cold for the last event, and seeing as though I'm using that as an analog for this one given the strong similarities, I suspect it is this time too.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
I agree. Too cold, the RGEM is.
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:sabamfa wrote:What time will precip stop on Sunday in NYC?
Sunday we're looking at rain all day. Between 5-7pm, it could change to snow. Sunday looks like a crappy day
Darn. Thanks, Frank.
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Wow, SREFS are pretty warm.
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Upton has upped amounts. They seem to be leaning towards the short range models colder idea.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
UPTON!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
The hi rss short range models are showing a meso.low pooping to our SE , off the SNJ coast by AC. The nam 4k and 3k and 22k are all pretty cold in their 0z runs tonight.
This Arctic dense air is going to be tough to scour in NNJ and LHV, hence we will have some ice accretion.
Dnot really know if globals will catch onto this meso low due to their physics but hi res models need to keep this notion going forward. Gfs has a warm bias?
4k NAM
This Arctic dense air is going to be tough to scour in NNJ and LHV, hence we will have some ice accretion.
Dnot really know if globals will catch onto this meso low due to their physics but hi res models need to keep this notion going forward. Gfs has a warm bias?
4k NAM
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
3k NAM is even snowier ^
It's our new weenie model.
It's our new weenie model.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
3k NAM Para where do I sign
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Nam Hi Res picking up on cold air hanging in at 12z Saturday
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
RGEM pops 4he meso low fa at er this run as does hi res nam by the maps posted. Tjis would be a kick in the warm airs groin and shunt the winds more northerly and keeps the waa in DC region
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
RGEM!!!
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
amugs wrote:RGEM!!!
Seems like it's really drying up with the last 24 hours of runs?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Earthlight tweeted that RGEM POPS a meso low South of LI. IF THIS comes to fruition then we we'll see amounts as the RGEM spit out. Bring g me Barney please
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snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Nice beat me to it Snow^^^^
Euro come sit like this and we have a good trend watch dr no put the kabosh on it
Euro come sit like this and we have a good trend watch dr no put the kabosh on it
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Hour 36 -42 moderate to heavy snow in nyc metro, NNJ all, LHV, epa. Looks like.sleet and frz rain after the heavy snow.
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
I would caution relaying on the meso-low south of LI for a couple of reasons:
1. Easterly and southerly winds at the lower levels look too strong. They could overpower the weak low pressure system.
2. The low gets organized too late. It may benefit New England but not sure it does much for us.
Ray mentioned this too.
We're better off hoping precip is moderate once it arrives so we take advantage of the cold air that way. One reason that can happen is because of the vertical velocities the low level jet may create. 700mb lift is seen in NNJ and SW NY while cold air is still here. This is a 10am graphic, but on the 7am time stamp there's increased VV's over NNJ still. This is likely the main reason why models are honing in on high snow amounts in NNJ and southern NY.
1. Easterly and southerly winds at the lower levels look too strong. They could overpower the weak low pressure system.
2. The low gets organized too late. It may benefit New England but not sure it does much for us.
Ray mentioned this too.
We're better off hoping precip is moderate once it arrives so we take advantage of the cold air that way. One reason that can happen is because of the vertical velocities the low level jet may create. 700mb lift is seen in NNJ and SW NY while cold air is still here. This is a 10am graphic, but on the 7am time stamp there's increased VV's over NNJ still. This is likely the main reason why models are honing in on high snow amounts in NNJ and southern NY.
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
We may have to begin talking more about the ice this storm could present as opposed to the snow. Check out these ice accumulations by the GFS tonight
Long Island and NYC should be ok thanks to heat island effect and those southerly winds...but most of NJ and much of PA could be in trouble. 2-4 inches of snow with a quarter of an inch of ice is no joke!
Long Island and NYC should be ok thanks to heat island effect and those southerly winds...but most of NJ and much of PA could be in trouble. 2-4 inches of snow with a quarter of an inch of ice is no joke!
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
700mb VV's valid 7am 00z GFS....jackpot NNJ again
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
Based on the last several posts, I see ice as an emerging potential issue. I notice that Sussex Co. seems to have a bit more(ice) showing on the charts?
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
We know from the past year or two what just a light glaze of snow can do on roads luckily it's on a weekend. Looks like a tin bit of ice creeps over hudson river into my part of wc but most stays in nnj.
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Re: Saturday December 17th Storm Discussions & Observations
National weather service has issue a winter weather advisory in effect for the entire area
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