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December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:25 am

Sleet now being reported on a line from just south of Allentown, Pa to just north of Trenton and eastward

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:33 am

You can see a weak LP trying to develop around the Delmarva:

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 Pmsl

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:34 am

@rb924119 wrote:Sleet now being reported on a line from just south of Allentown, Pa to just north of Trenton and eastward

All snow out by me right now on LI but I can see the R/S creeping in from the SE.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:45 am

How much snow do you have out ther right now, Scott? I'm back in Fishkill now which is about ten miles south of Poughkeepsie, and we have jack-squat lmao maybe getting close to an inch.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:45 am

Def not as many early birds as there are night owls.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:46 am

@rb924119 wrote:How much snow do you have out ther right now, Scott? I'm back in Fishkill now which is about ten miles south of Poughkeepsie, and we have jack-squat lmao maybe getting close to an inch.

I am going togoout now for an official measurement. Give me a few

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:47 am

R/S line

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_7111.GIF.adef1f0a006cea47f2b6ba72003f382d

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:52 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:R/S line

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_7111.GIF.adef1f0a006cea47f2b6ba72003f382d

FINALLY SOMEBODY WHO HAS A DUAL-POL PRODUCT Ahahahaha I've been trying to splice radar "bright bands", in quotes because returns aren't that bright, surface obs, and the meso-analysis to get an approximation ahaha

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:58 am

I felt like models did not have a changeover until 9-10am. Seems fast

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:58 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:R/S line

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_7111.GIF.adef1f0a006cea47f2b6ba72003f382d

FINALLY SOMEBODY WHO HAS A DUAL-POL PRODUCT Ahahahaha I've been trying to splice radar "bright bands", in quotes because returns aren't that bright, surface obs, and the meso-analysis to get an approximation ahaha

Wink

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:01 am

26.2* with moderate snow falling.  Avg measurement 2.25" so far.  Even if it stopped here I'm happy.  

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 Img_4016

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I felt like models did not have a changeover until 9-10am. Seems fast

That's why I kept my forecast the same; I mentioned that in my discussion I thought the models were much too slow. We'all see if that holds true or not. How much do you have so far?

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Post by Guest Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:04 am

Just came back in. 2 1/2" here in Syosset and coming down good right now. Headed your may sroc4. Can this keep up till 10:00 am? if it does we get over 4" easy and maybe approach the HRR totals spit out last night of 3-5"

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:05 am

Finally tapping into the dendritic growth here in Fishkill lol wooooo

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:07 am

Frank how did you get the animation loop from radar scope to load? I am trying but it says either file to large or corrupt.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:08 am

Moderate snow. Eyeballing it looks like I'm approaching 2" here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:08 am

Couple of things

1. Winds still from the North in northern NJ. R/S should stay S&W for another 1-2 hours, though I see its moving quickly. We'll see.

2. Besides immediate coast, surface temps are cold as heck still. Looking at a prolonged wintry event.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_20161217_070259.jpg.3e66e56a96d1183de9c7c6d018860a18

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:10 am

More ice/sleet mix now here. A good inch to inch and half on ground. Temp has rose to 30° was at 26° at 5 am. So temps are on the rise
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:11 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I felt like models did not have a changeover until 9-10am. Seems fast

That's why I kept my forecast the same; I mentioned that in my discussion I thought the models were much too slow. We'all see if that holds true or not. How much do you have so far?

Lots of busts in PA, but I'm approaching 2 inches.

syosnow94 wrote:Just came back in.  2 1/2" here in Syosset and coming down good right now.  Headed your may sroc4.  Can this keep up till 10:00 am?  if it does we get over 4" easy and maybe approach the HRR totals spit out last night of 3-5"

Your longitude is helping right now. Long Island is likely to end around 4 inches. Could see 5. Good luck!

@sroc4 wrote:Frank how did you get the animation loop from radar scope to load?  I am trying but it says either file to large or corrupt.

Not sure, stole from Twitter

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:15 am

Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:15 am

Wow, saw this on Twitter. CAD signature all the way south into NC. Impressive!

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_20161217_071247.jpg.1d91b0e37c8836aeab8436f6c615ea8b

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:17 am

@rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

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Post by roccuweather Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:17 am

7:15am and two inches in Belleville with moderate snow. I drove on the parkway between Union and Essex at 5am and it was just wet. By 6am both roads were completely snow covered, but passable at slow rates. Surprisingly a lot of cars on the road. Saw salt trucks out but did not pass any plows on my 45 minute trip.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:18 am

Frank your map spot in for my area
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:18 am

Getting hammered right now. Gotta smell the rain to get the best rates.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6085066162570889&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=416.833799316558&centery=132.99534016775402&transx=16.833799316557986&transy=-107
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6085066162570889&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=416.833799316558&centery=132.99534016775402&transx=16.833799316557986&transy=-107

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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