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December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:53 am

snow247 wrote:Hey sroc, where did you find the blank map that you use for your snowfall maps? Unfortunately I lost the one I used to use and can't seem to find any others.

Anyway, temp is sitting at 22 here currently. Radar showing lots of virga popping up to the west.

Hey Snow247 check Banter thread

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Post by Guest Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:57 am

First flakes began falling here at 2:45. Really started coming down last 1/2 hour. approaching 2" already. If it keeps up we will be over 4" by 9.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:25 am

Sleet now being reported on a line from just south of Allentown, Pa to just north of Trenton and eastward

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:33 am

You can see a weak LP trying to develop around the Delmarva:

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 Pmsl

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:34 am

rb924119 wrote:Sleet now being reported on a line from just south of Allentown, Pa to just north of Trenton and eastward

All snow out by me right now on LI but I can see the R/S creeping in from the SE.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:45 am

How much snow do you have out ther right now, Scott? I'm back in Fishkill now which is about ten miles south of Poughkeepsie, and we have jack-squat lmao maybe getting close to an inch.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:45 am

Def not as many early birds as there are night owls.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:46 am

rb924119 wrote:How much snow do you have out ther right now, Scott? I'm back in Fishkill now which is about ten miles south of Poughkeepsie, and we have jack-squat lmao maybe getting close to an inch.

I am going togoout now for an official measurement. Give me a few

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:47 am

R/S line

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_7111.GIF.adef1f0a006cea47f2b6ba72003f382d

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:R/S line

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_7111.GIF.adef1f0a006cea47f2b6ba72003f382d

FINALLY SOMEBODY WHO HAS A DUAL-POL PRODUCT Ahahahaha I've been trying to splice radar "bright bands", in quotes because returns aren't that bright, surface obs, and the meso-analysis to get an approximation ahaha

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:58 am

I felt like models did not have a changeover until 9-10am. Seems fast

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:58 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:R/S line

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_7111.GIF.adef1f0a006cea47f2b6ba72003f382d

FINALLY SOMEBODY WHO HAS A DUAL-POL PRODUCT Ahahahaha I've been trying to splice radar "bright bands", in quotes because returns aren't that bright, surface obs, and the meso-analysis to get an approximation ahaha

Wink

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:01 am

26.2* with moderate snow falling.  Avg measurement 2.25" so far.  Even if it stopped here I'm happy.  

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 Img_4016

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I felt like models did not have a changeover until 9-10am. Seems fast

That's why I kept my forecast the same; I mentioned that in my discussion I thought the models were much too slow. We'all see if that holds true or not. How much do you have so far?

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Post by Guest Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:04 am

Just came back in. 2 1/2" here in Syosset and coming down good right now. Headed your may sroc4. Can this keep up till 10:00 am? if it does we get over 4" easy and maybe approach the HRR totals spit out last night of 3-5"

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:05 am

Finally tapping into the dendritic growth here in Fishkill lol wooooo

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:07 am

Frank how did you get the animation loop from radar scope to load? I am trying but it says either file to large or corrupt.

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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:08 am

Moderate snow. Eyeballing it looks like I'm approaching 2" here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:08 am

Couple of things

1. Winds still from the North in northern NJ. R/S should stay S&W for another 1-2 hours, though I see its moving quickly. We'll see.

2. Besides immediate coast, surface temps are cold as heck still. Looking at a prolonged wintry event.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 IMG_20161217_070259.jpg.3e66e56a96d1183de9c7c6d018860a18

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:10 am

More ice/sleet mix now here. A good inch to inch and half on ground. Temp has rose to 30° was at 26° at 5 am. So temps are on the rise
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:11 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I felt like models did not have a changeover until 9-10am. Seems fast

That's why I kept my forecast the same; I mentioned that in my discussion I thought the models were much too slow. We'all see if that holds true or not. How much do you have so far?

Lots of busts in PA, but I'm approaching 2 inches.

syosnow94 wrote:Just came back in.  2 1/2" here in Syosset and coming down good right now.  Headed your may sroc4.  Can this keep up till 10:00 am?  if it does we get over 4" easy and maybe approach the HRR totals spit out last night of 3-5"

Your longitude is helping right now. Long Island is likely to end around 4 inches. Could see 5. Good luck!

sroc4 wrote:Frank how did you get the animation loop from radar scope to load?  I am trying but it says either file to large or corrupt.

Not sure, stole from Twitter

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:15 am

Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:15 am

Wow, saw this on Twitter. CAD signature all the way south into NC. Impressive!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:17 am

rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

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Post by roccuweather Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:17 am

7:15am and two inches in Belleville with moderate snow. I drove on the parkway between Union and Essex at 5am and it was just wet. By 6am both roads were completely snow covered, but passable at slow rates. Surprisingly a lot of cars on the road. Saw salt trucks out but did not pass any plows on my 45 minute trip.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:18 am

Frank your map spot in for my area
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:18 am

Getting hammered right now. Gotta smell the rain to get the best rates.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6085066162570889&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=416.833799316558&centery=132.99534016775402&transx=16.833799316557986&transy=-107
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 5 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6085066162570889&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=416.833799316558&centery=132.99534016775402&transx=16.833799316557986&transy=-107

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