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December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What is the circled area that I am in mugs?

I was wondering the same thing?
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:28 pm

That is teh area where we can see a very dangerous area of ice.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:44 pm

@amugs wrote:That is teh area where we can see a very dangerous area of ice.

Thanks Mugs, not good.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:52 pm

Holy Moly Rgem wo op woop.meso.low parteeeDecember 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 5854612e2ad9c_holyrgem.png.a37db19e36361203575e22eb7c8cb43c

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:55 pm

18z gfs fwiw
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_5.jpg.0da1bfb5ab7502311cf9e150a938efe9

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Post by pdubz Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:42 pm

Colder solution coming?!?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:47 pm

Changes are coming to my final snow map. Models are picking up on enhanced 700mb frontogensis and a prolonged period of northerly winds thanks to the surface low that will develop off the coast. I'll have it out in 47 minutes.

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Post by snow247 Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:51 pm

My advisory still says 2-4 although most guidance continues to show 4-7 in my area. We'll see.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:14 pm

@snow247 wrote:My advisory still says 2-4 although most guidance continues to show 4-7 in my area. We'll see.
Those are from 12PM today once they digest the latest data they will come in line to a 3-6" for u or 4-6"

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:27 pm

The latest hrrr gives New York City Metro 4 to 5 inches of snow by 9 a.m. and still snowing
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:29 pm

The formation of that secondary low could be robbing moisture for the northernmost suburbs and actually give coastal areas more snow. Rgem along with the hrrr seem to be hinting at this
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:30 pm

@algae888 wrote:The formation of that secondary low could be robbing moisture for the northernmost suburbs and actually give coastal areas more snow. Rgem along with the hrrr seem to be hinting at this

Oh boy Subsidence - crazy!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:33 pm

Sorry all, I am running late and have to run out. I do not have time to explain the changes to my updated final call snow map. I remain very concerned about icing in interior northern NJ, eastern PA, and north of NYC. Everything I said in my first post of this thread still applies, just adjusting snow amounts. In the end, I am going back to what I had in my 1st call 2 nights ago. 4-8" N&W (I feel the lower end of this range will verify) and I moved the 2-4" zone south into NYC and NE NJ.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Final_call_december_17th

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:40 pm

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Cz1cJDKWQAAjF1E

Heavy Snow as per HRRR and ice - jesus this is VERY BAD - circled area map I posted awhile ago is the area.

IMO NWS should put up WSW - Winter Storm Watches for areas in purple on Franks Map

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:42 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry all, I am running late and have to run out. I do not have time to explain the changes to my updated final call snow map. I remain very concerned about icing in interior northern NJ, eastern PA, and north of NYC. Everything I said in my first post of this thread still applies, just adjusting snow amounts. In the end, I am going back to what I had in my 1st call 2 nights ago. 4-8" N&W (I feel the lower end of this range will verify) and I moved the 2-4" zone south into NYC and NE NJ.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Final_call_december_17th

Mind if I share with the other board?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:46 pm

@amugs wrote:December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Cz1cJDKWQAAjF1E

Heavy Snow as per HRRR and ice - jesus this is VERY BAD - circled area map I posted awhile ago is the area.

IMO NWS should put up WSW - Winter Storm Watches for areas in purple on Franks Map

I agree, I know our criteria is 6 inches or more for WSW but 4-6 combined with ice, they have the leeway to do it and probably should.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:47 pm

Just over a year ago in the Banter thread, I put this up:

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Souths10

I have experienced winter storms in which I changeover from snow a lot faster than areas just north of the black line I drew.  At this point, I remain a bit skeptical about the increased snow totals.  Maybe neighborhoods like Flushing, Bayside, Douglaston, or Great Neck will experience them, but not so sure for me.  

Also, I am not sure how I will manage my sleep schedule tonight.  I know I am usually asleep until at least 10 AM on Saturdays.  But I know that the snow could be over for me by the time it happens.  I may have to rely on surrounding snow totals to put in my own.  

I hope I do get the increased snow totals.  I'm just not getting my hopes up...

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:56 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry all, I am running late and have to run out. I do not have time to explain the changes to my updated final call snow map. I remain very concerned about icing in interior northern NJ, eastern PA, and north of NYC. Everything I said in my first post of this thread still applies, just adjusting snow amounts. In the end, I am going back to what I had in my 1st call 2 nights ago. 4-8" N&W (I feel the lower end of this range will verify) and I moved the 2-4" zone south into NYC and NE NJ.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Final_call_december_17th

Mind if I share with the other board?

Go for it

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:57 pm

@amugs wrote:That is teh area where we can see a very dangerous area of ice.
Oh boy, this may end up being a warning level event (any amount of frzr on top of snow is a warning event) as some have stated, but may be issued too late. Once NWS sees whats going on.
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:01 pm

hrrr shows nicely secondary low formation. look off the s/e jersey coast.
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_15
if low forms there colder solution should verify
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Post by snow247 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:02 pm

Down to 21 degrees here so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:02 pm

@amugs wrote:Holy Moly Rgem wo op woop.meso.low parteeeDecember 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 5854612e2ad9c_holyrgem.png.a37db19e36361203575e22eb7c8cb43c

hell ya, 5-6, ill take it in a heart beat, is that discounting the ice though?
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:18 pm

Looking at the soundings, the RAP and HRRR have freezing rain for Teterboro for 3 hours, 9 am- noon! affraid

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:41 pm

I know our main focus is the snow and ice but holy damn look at sundays 850mb winds (sustained!), I think gusts will exceed 60mph at one point possible, 100+ mph 850s wow.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 2 Rgem_m10


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:43 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Looking at the soundings, the RAP and HRRR have freezing rain for Teterboro for 3 hours, 9 am- noon! affraid
Yep looking like a rather rare ice event for a large area, not sure how much of it gets in here north of NYC, the RGEM doesnt really show the pink there but NJ damn. Still going by what mugs and Frank said though that north of NYC, and that pivotal weather (where is that is it free? Ice map isn't joking.
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