December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
all I can say good thing not a work day this b disaster and probably drill will b as people go b caught off guard. Most ppl I know have no clue it's gping to snow. Coupled with 40mph winds those,areas tgat see .25 or more may see power issues too. .25 right imb according to tgat image. Wow .44 in nj yikes.amugs wrote:Ice ice baby !!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Good thing the highest win ds for sun morning aren't on sat. All the ice b gone but Def stI'll possible to have power issues with gusts to 50 55 plus. Ice or not.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
jmanley32 wrote:What is the circled area that I am in mugs?
I was wondering the same thing?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
That is teh area where we can see a very dangerous area of ice.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
amugs wrote:That is teh area where we can see a very dangerous area of ice.
Thanks Mugs, not good.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Holy Moly Rgem wo op woop.meso.low parteee
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
18z gfs fwiw
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Colder solution coming?!?
pdubz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Changes are coming to my final snow map. Models are picking up on enhanced 700mb frontogensis and a prolonged period of northerly winds thanks to the surface low that will develop off the coast. I'll have it out in 47 minutes.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
My advisory still says 2-4 although most guidance continues to show 4-7 in my area. We'll see.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Those are from 12PM today once they digest the latest data they will come in line to a 3-6" for u or 4-6"snow247 wrote:My advisory still says 2-4 although most guidance continues to show 4-7 in my area. We'll see.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
The latest hrrr gives New York City Metro 4 to 5 inches of snow by 9 a.m. and still snowing
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
The formation of that secondary low could be robbing moisture for the northernmost suburbs and actually give coastal areas more snow. Rgem along with the hrrr seem to be hinting at this
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
algae888 wrote:The formation of that secondary low could be robbing moisture for the northernmost suburbs and actually give coastal areas more snow. Rgem along with the hrrr seem to be hinting at this
Oh boy Subsidence - crazy!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Sorry all, I am running late and have to run out. I do not have time to explain the changes to my updated final call snow map. I remain very concerned about icing in interior northern NJ, eastern PA, and north of NYC. Everything I said in my first post of this thread still applies, just adjusting snow amounts. In the end, I am going back to what I had in my 1st call 2 nights ago. 4-8" N&W (I feel the lower end of this range will verify) and I moved the 2-4" zone south into NYC and NE NJ.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Heavy Snow as per HRRR and ice - jesus this is VERY BAD - circled area map I posted awhile ago is the area.
IMO NWS should put up WSW - Winter Storm Watches for areas in purple on Franks Map
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry all, I am running late and have to run out. I do not have time to explain the changes to my updated final call snow map. I remain very concerned about icing in interior northern NJ, eastern PA, and north of NYC. Everything I said in my first post of this thread still applies, just adjusting snow amounts. In the end, I am going back to what I had in my 1st call 2 nights ago. 4-8" N&W (I feel the lower end of this range will verify) and I moved the 2-4" zone south into NYC and NE NJ.
Mind if I share with the other board?
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
amugs wrote:
Heavy Snow as per HRRR and ice - jesus this is VERY BAD - circled area map I posted awhile ago is the area.
IMO NWS should put up WSW - Winter Storm Watches for areas in purple on Franks Map
I agree, I know our criteria is 6 inches or more for WSW but 4-6 combined with ice, they have the leeway to do it and probably should.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Just over a year ago in the Banter thread, I put this up:
I have experienced winter storms in which I changeover from snow a lot faster than areas just north of the black line I drew. At this point, I remain a bit skeptical about the increased snow totals. Maybe neighborhoods like Flushing, Bayside, Douglaston, or Great Neck will experience them, but not so sure for me.
Also, I am not sure how I will manage my sleep schedule tonight. I know I am usually asleep until at least 10 AM on Saturdays. But I know that the snow could be over for me by the time it happens. I may have to rely on surrounding snow totals to put in my own.
I hope I do get the increased snow totals. I'm just not getting my hopes up...
I have experienced winter storms in which I changeover from snow a lot faster than areas just north of the black line I drew. At this point, I remain a bit skeptical about the increased snow totals. Maybe neighborhoods like Flushing, Bayside, Douglaston, or Great Neck will experience them, but not so sure for me.
Also, I am not sure how I will manage my sleep schedule tonight. I know I am usually asleep until at least 10 AM on Saturdays. But I know that the snow could be over for me by the time it happens. I may have to rely on surrounding snow totals to put in my own.
I hope I do get the increased snow totals. I'm just not getting my hopes up...
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
amugs wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry all, I am running late and have to run out. I do not have time to explain the changes to my updated final call snow map. I remain very concerned about icing in interior northern NJ, eastern PA, and north of NYC. Everything I said in my first post of this thread still applies, just adjusting snow amounts. In the end, I am going back to what I had in my 1st call 2 nights ago. 4-8" N&W (I feel the lower end of this range will verify) and I moved the 2-4" zone south into NYC and NE NJ.
Mind if I share with the other board?
Go for it
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Oh boy, this may end up being a warning level event (any amount of frzr on top of snow is a warning event) as some have stated, but may be issued too late. Once NWS sees whats going on.amugs wrote:That is teh area where we can see a very dangerous area of ice.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
hrrr shows nicely secondary low formation. look off the s/e jersey coast.
if low forms there colder solution should verify
if low forms there colder solution should verify
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Down to 21 degrees here so far
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
amugs wrote:Holy Moly Rgem wo op woop.meso.low parteee
hell ya, 5-6, ill take it in a heart beat, is that discounting the ice though?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Looking at the soundings, the RAP and HRRR have freezing rain for Teterboro for 3 hours, 9 am- noon!
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
I know our main focus is the snow and ice but holy damn look at sundays 850mb winds (sustained!), I think gusts will exceed 60mph at one point possible, 100+ mph 850s wow.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Yep looking like a rather rare ice event for a large area, not sure how much of it gets in here north of NYC, the RGEM doesnt really show the pink there but NJ damn. Still going by what mugs and Frank said though that north of NYC, and that pivotal weather (where is that is it free? Ice map isn't joking.Dunnzoo wrote:Looking at the soundings, the RAP and HRRR have freezing rain for Teterboro for 3 hours, 9 am- noon!
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