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December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:47 pm

After MUCH deliberation, I have decided to leave my forecast alone. I am sticking with the reasons mentioned in my video, which can be seen by clicking this link:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMG5zZlJCNEVnODA

I am adjusting the timing though, mainly on the back-end:

Start: 11pm Friday-3am Saturday
End: 10am-2pm Saturday

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Slide113

Admittedly, I may be a little too low for the eastern half of LI and into southeastern CT, central RI and southeastern Mass, but in my honest opinion I feel I would be splitting hairs if I moved my 1-3" border southeastward by those 15 or 20 miles. If I do miss low in those areas, I feel it would only be by a half-inch, maybe an inch at absolute most. We shall see!

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:52 pm

^^^ Yuo are going to need a bigger boat my man affraid

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:54 pm

For those wondering, I completely disregarded the RGEM on this one, as I do not like the look of its precipitation field AT ALL. It has a tremendous bullseye in a steep valley in Pennsylvania, and a valley which severe downsloping is likely to occur in this event. The WRF and NAM suites, while closer to my snowfall gradient locations, appear too wet before the change-over, while the EURO and GFS ensembles seem to agree pretty well with my train of thought. The GFS Parallel aligned very well with my first call, but the Operational seems displaced a bit too far to the south with the higher totals for my liking. Again, I did not change anything from my first call, but if I was going to make another map, it would have likely followed the GFS Ensembles/Parallel and EURO suite.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:54 pm

@amugs wrote:^^^ Yuo are going to need a bigger boat my man  affraid

I don't follow lol

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:01 pm

So models have trended colder or just the hrrr model showing that?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:03 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@amugs wrote:^^^ Yuo are going to need a bigger boat my man  affraid

I don't follow lol

me neither.....
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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:06 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121700/namconus_asnow_us_7.png
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:17 pm

My reference is to Jaws with Capt. Quinn when they see Jaws and are thrown .

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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:20 pm

0z 3k Nam has 4+ for the whole area

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 3 W2qgi
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:21 pm

@amugs wrote:My reference is to Jaws with Capt. Quinn when they see Jaws and are thrown .

Well I know the reference, but I'm not seeing how it applies haha I'm "missing the boat" so to speak tongue Razz

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:27 pm

Recent runs of the HRRR look to be falling much more in line with me now......that's a slight relief. Although seeing the NAM holding its ground is equally unnerving; then again, it IS the NAM lmao

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:39 pm

I know it's only 9:30 but the radar looks completely horrendous. Actually non-existent. Not a good sign for us when we want the moisture here ASAP before the cold air gets scoured out.

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:40 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Recent runs of the HRRR look to be falling much more in line with me now......that's a slight relief. Although seeing the NAM holding its ground is equally unnerving; then again, it IS the NAM lmao

you would be the only member of this board my friend to be hoping that the models trend to less accumulations. Evil or Very Mad *  I for one hope your forecast busts low.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:46 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Recent runs of the HRRR look to be falling much more in line with me now......that's a slight relief. Although seeing the NAM holding its ground is equally unnerving; then again, it IS the NAM lmao

you would be the only member of this board my friend to be hoping that the models trend to less accumulations. Evil or Very Mad *  I for one hope your forecast busts low.

My fault for not elaborating: I truly hope that I don't bust, and at the same time I hope am too low. If I do bust, I'd rather be in the situation that I am now, where if I'm wrong, I'm too low. I'd be a lot less upset, and a lot happier, if we end up with more than what I think, versus if we get less haha it's a double-edged sword

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:12 pm

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Img_4015


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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:26 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Recent runs of the HRRR look to be falling much more in line with me now......that's a slight relief. Although seeing the NAM holding its ground is equally unnerving; then again, it IS the NAM lmao
Well rb the latest hrrr has 3 to 5" for most of Long Island
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Post by snow247 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:26 pm

Hey sroc, where did you find the blank map that you use for your snowfall maps? Unfortunately I lost the one I used to use and can't seem to find any others.

Anyway, temp is sitting at 22 here currently. Radar showing lots of virga popping up to the west.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:34 pm

Looking at the radar I would say no way the start time will be anywhere near before or after midnight, but maybe it fills in?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:35 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Recent runs of the HRRR look to be falling much more in line with me now......that's a slight relief. Although seeing the NAM holding its ground is equally unnerving; then again, it IS the NAM lmao
Well rb the latest hrrr has 3 to 5" for most of Long Island

Haha I saw that, don't worry :p My personal feeling is that many of those areas will see sleet and/or snow grains for most of the burst of heavier precipitation before it goes to rain. So when you look at the model and it shows the darkest blues between 12-15/16z, I think that ends up verifying as sleet and/or the snow grains and not snow, but counts the qpf that falls as those p-types as snow. Again, my own interpretation lol the model does have 4" amounts through central LI and southwestern Connecticut, though, you're right.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:40 pm

The GFS has to be counting sleet as snow. There's no way it's snowing beyond 12z in southeastern Pa when 850s are +2C and higher ahaha zero chance

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:46 pm

I'm headed to bed, and I'll see what we have in the morning. This storm has completely tired me out trying to figure it out haha 'night all!

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:02 pm

I'm way to excited for a potential 3-6 that may change to rain

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:04 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:I'm way to excited for a potential 3-6 that may change to rain
lol me too (it WILL change to rain thats a for sure) guess cuz we may not get a lot of chances, interested to see how bad the icing event may b too.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:08 pm

rarely see icing that is as bad as forecasted

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:14 pm

Wow, thats some dayumm heavy freezing rain for a big area, only lasts a few hrs but thats enough to cause major trouble.

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