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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Some hope to cling onto on this wonderful day. The GEFS show a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern setting up after January 7th. This would lead to substantial cold and frequent winter storm events. We shall see.

in 2 days we went from possibly a storm on the 30th or so to January 7th.  Very Happy Very Happy

Yea, that storm on the 29th will be rain. Though not ruling out Snow yet for N&W people

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Some hope to cling onto on this wonderful day. The GEFS show a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern setting up after January 7th. This would lead to substantial cold and frequent winter storm events. We shall see.

in 2 days we went from possibly a storm on the 30th or so to January 7th.  Very Happy Very Happy

Yea, that storm on the 29th will be rain. Though not ruling out Snow yet for N&W people

That's right because N & W have been good boys and girls for Christmas, Sysos not so good. Very Happy
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:16 am

If euro is right about how deep the 500mb trough is and 850mb vorticity HV and N NJ should keep an eye on late 29th into early 30th.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:34 am

Yea 29th is definitely in play still for N&W. Also, EURO suggests VERY interesting time from about January 5th and beyond. -EPO/-NAO pattern setting up to bring home the goods? Possible. Will outline later.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:38 am

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/813363054993883136

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:49 am

The euro is so much more intense with the vorticity rotating through the region at 850mb.  Notice how euro closes off 850m right over LI by hr 96; whereas the GFS does not.  This is one big difference as to why areas N&W need to monitor closely.  If the Euro closes off 6hrs earlier, or 50 miles further south who knows????  

EURO hr 96 & 102
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 850mb_10
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 850mb_12


GFS hr 96 & 102

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 850mb_13
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 850mb_11

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:55 am

The difference between the two is how they handle the trough as it comes into the U.S. on Wednesday. EURO is sharper and seems to keep the PVA on the backside, while the GFS looks broader and less robust with the upper energy. Notice on the EURO how heights along the EC are amplified, signaling an impressive trough to the west which is what the EURO shows.

GFS valid Wed PM

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_12

EURO same time

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf_z500a_us_4

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:00 am

Amazing how inside 3-4days there are such differences at both 500 and 850mb

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:10 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The difference between the two is how they handle the trough as it comes into the U.S. on Wednesday. EURO is sharper and seems to keep the PVA on the backside, while the GFS looks broader and less robust with the upper energy. Notice on the EURO how heights along the EC are amplified, signaling an impressive trough to the west which is what the EURO shows.

GFS valid Wed PM

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_12

EURO same time

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf_z500a_us_4

Seen another way at 500mb 12 hrs later than images above.  You can really see the differences between the two models.  Notice the heights in front of the trough; notice the trough off the E Canada coast, and notice the energy coming on shore in western Canada

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Euro10
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Gfs10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:56 am

The GEFS and EPS actually look similar, leading me to believe GFS OP is wrong

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Post by Armando Salvadore Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:13 am

Good morning all! Hope you had yourself a great Christmas! @ sroc4, don't forget to check your messages, i sent ya one! Anyway, good analysis' guys! Check out the z500mb jet streak (wind speed/height) on the 0z EURO. Front left exit region of an approximately ~ 120 knot jet streak. Would support what the Euro shows with cyclogenesis imposing south of LI with a 1030mb high over NewFoundland. Such discrepancy inside 5 days, can't say i'm shocked! Would probably lean more towards the Euro with its H5 depiction as well. Lets see where it goes!
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:29 am

I for one am (obviously) not surprised that the long range guidance flipped to cold/stormy beyond Jan 4th... makes sense with 500mb look and blocking that the SE ridge disappears. Love when you call BS on seemingly unanimous LR guidance depictions and then they change to your ideas, but still not verification until it happens. Still like the the 4th-6th time frame for a major storm also ~ was mere signal when I thought so last Wednesday, and it's a little better signal this morning.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:35 am

@Armando Salvadore wrote:Good morning all! Hope you had yourself a great Christmas! @ sroc4, don't forget to check your messages, i sent ya one! Anyway, good analysis' guys! Check out the z500mb jet streak (wind speed/height) on the 0z EURO. Front left exit region of an approximately ~ 120 knot jet streak. Would support what the Euro shows with cyclogenesis imposing south of LI with a 1030mb high over NewFoundland. Such discrepancy inside 5 days, can't say i'm shocked! Would probably lean more towards the Euro with its H5 depiction as well. Lets see where it goes!

I took Christmas Eve and Christmas off. I responded to your PM. Thank you

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Armando Salvadore Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:40 am

@Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:I for one am (obviously) not surprised that the long range guidance flipped to cold/stormy beyond Jan 4th... makes sense with 500mb look and blocking that the SE ridge disappears. Love when you call BS on seemingly unanimous LR guidance depictions and then they change to your ideas, but still not verification until it happens. Still like the the 4th-6th time frame for a major storm also ~ was mere signal when I thought so last Wednesday, and it's a little better signal this morning.

Bobby, i'm sure you saw the 0z EURO for that time period. Obviously, have been following your assertions and statements all winter, you've done a wonderful job thus far overall! Now, with a blocking scheme as such being depicted on basically, all guidance, a major storm in that time period you mentioned makes sense. The medium/long range with a -AAM developing (GEFS trended stronger with poleward momentum) and strengthening -EPO/-WPO, that SE ridge will continue to trend weaker and that is what we're seeing. Question is longevity, but being that this winter has been a tough one thus far, i'd just wait to see what happens then. Give us some snow!
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:44 am

Great discussion in here boys and welcome Armondo glad to have u on board! Took a few days off here but checked in.
Like 2014-15 flip timeframe Jan 4th if I ember correctly
Excit in to me at least with this pattern evolution of the N EPO WPO coupet and the bridge forming over the top between the Atlantic and Pac during this said timeframe. Now question remains will we see due to this pole ward extension of the Al ridge cause a strat disturbance? 

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Eps_z500a_5d_noram_61.png.363de642209dca890fcefc8150aa8c02

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:24 am

Gfs coming g around 12z for tursdat?

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_neus_15

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:04 pm

Started a thread for Thursday

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:10 pm

@Armando Salvadore wrote:Bobby, i'm sure you saw the 0z EURO for that time period. Obviously, have been following your assertions and statements all winter, you've done a wonderful job thus far overall! Now, with a blocking scheme as such being depicted on basically, all guidance, a major storm in that time period you mentioned makes sense. The medium/long range with a -AAM developing (GEFS trended stronger with poleward momentum) and strengthening -EPO/-WPO, that SE ridge will continue to trend weaker and that is what we're seeing. Question is longevity, but being that this winter has been a tough one thus far, i'd just wait to see what happens then. Give us some snow!

Agreed... the -AAM depictions have been back and forth, but I think we'll see a trend toward more consistency with that amplification in time. As far as longevity is concerned, the aggressive forecast is in the medium range, and if this is correct we could see a -EPO sustain itself for quite some time, favoring cold periods through January and also February. We've seen how the -EPO can drive the pattern (see 2013-2014) and how it can sustain itself. No signs of that weakening through 1/12, and likely a lot longer than that. Whenever the EPO is negative like that, I'll roll the dice and take my chances. I think everything else will fall into place like we're starting to see now on the ensemble guidance (GEFS/EPS).
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:16 pm

This is pretty much wax your carrot worthy as George Carlin would say... great signal here in this set-up for a Winter storm threat Jan 5th/6th 'ish:

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Gefs211
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:38 pm

The hemispheric split of the PV is gorgeous. 10hPa and 30hPa WAF is expected to get active come January 1st. While the Strat PV looks to remain intact, there is a clear weakening at the Trop.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Fluxes

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:44 pm

Beautiful look here epo and nao trending stronger to Negative  cold air wil l envelope the coast to coast. Lok to midwest to east coldest anamolies

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Img_2050

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:03 pm

Still not a lock yet on ALL guidance, the 12z GEPS (below) still suggest no -NAO and PV is near Baffin Island, not Hudson Bay. As a result, the SE ridge can still flex here. This is doubtful given the -EPO/-WPO, but not impossible. NAO is obviously critical to the going forecast longer range.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Geps10




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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:11 pm

And I would not bet on a -nao
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:51 pm

Monday's Euro weeklies flipped cold/stormy again, not at all surprised.

Temperature departure by week:
Week 1: +1 to +2°C
Week 2: -1 to -2°C
Week 3: -2 to -3°C
Week 4: 0 to +1°C
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:10 pm

Bobby - problem I'm having buying the -NAO are Stratospheric/QBO conditions. Also, do you think some guidance is showing more of a thumb ridge and not so much a legit -NAO? Still a nice look, just trying to be technical...

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