Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[track17]

Skins just a question how can their be a storm then I am looking at the long range temps they look way too warm by a lot

[skinsfan1177]

Because temps are not what to look at this far out pattern setup is what to look at. And just because theirs a storm Possibly doesn't mean it's snow. But hearing in the weather forums the setup as of today is intriguing. I will let the knowledgable ones here talk about it in detail.

[rb924119]

REALLY getting fired up about the next 12-14 day period. Upon further inspection, I am seeing THREE chances for white gold. Things could be very interesting for us!! Video to come (hopefully) by the end of today.

[jake732]

the CMC shows a beauty godzilla next sunday the 16th...anything to belive? any other models on board?

[skinsfan1177]

Temps are not what to watch for at this time. Its pattern setup and storm signal.

[skinsfan1177]

Now it all depends on getting on the right side of boundary. And if those Hs are in place

[SoulSingMG]

REALLY getting fired up about the next 12-14 day period. Upon further inspection, I am seeing THREE chances for white gold. Things could be very interesting for us!! Video to come (hopefully) by the end of today.

You're never this excited! Can't wait to see the video

[jake732]

to many sleepless nights to track a rain storm....if if if everything goes right then it can snow.

[skinsfan1177]

to many sleepless nights to track a rain storm....if if if everything goes right then it can snow.

Jake your optimism is some4himg else. You where thinking nothing for this storm and we got 8 inches . it's a week away tracking is fun either way

[jake732]

to many sleepless nights to track a rain storm....if if if everything goes right then it can snow.

Jake your optimism is some4himg else. You where thinking nothing for this storm and we got 8 inches . it's a week away tracking is fun either way

deep deep down i though we would get hit and we did.

[jmanley32]

Now it all depends on getting on the right side of boundary. And if those Hs are in place

Did ya see the snow map holy god, its not a godzilla its a roidzilla! Verbatim that is and it IS the CMC. I'll post the snow map in banter.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Now it all depends on getting on the right side of boundary. And if those Hs are in place

Did ya see the snow map holy god, its not a godzilla its a roidzilla!  Verbatim that is and it IS the CMC. I'll post the snow map in banter.

Come on Jman post it

[algae888]

good afternoon what a beautiful day. fresh powder and temps in the teens. how winter is supposed to be!. looking ahead getting excited about next weekend. 1050mb hp in southern Quebec in jan. usually means good things for us. models have been waffling with where the gradient sets up but given the strength of the s/e ridge this winter it should stay close enough to our area. as for the first two systems this week looks like rain for the coastal plain maybe some snow for all tues afternoon and evening. as I have been saying all winter as long as we stay active we will all have a nice winter.

[algae888]

with  strong hp in that position in mid jan the 540 line would usually be in the Carolina with suppression for our area.

however look at the /se ridge on the euro ensembles. that would set up a very strong gradient near us. s/e ridge can at times be our friend. all comes down to timing. so as scott says we track.! fun winter for me so far!
edit also note the very blocky pattern in the atlantic. fun times ahead

[Frank_Wx]

The weekend has to be watched, and very well could deliver, but I'm a little pessimistic about the extended range. We're losing the north Pacific ridge and the Atlantic offers little to like. Temperatures in the upper Stratosphere are running well below normal. It looks like 1-hPa mean zonal winds finally want to weaken and possibly reverse easterly, but that forecast is still in the long range. We're in the heart of winter so I won't dismiss any snowfall events. Just saying the upper air pattern for much of January doesn't scream snow. We'll have to work for it. Just like this weekends possible event with a well timed HP.

[Math23x7]

Regardless of what happens this weekend, CPC's 8-14 day outlook does not look pretty:

[docstox12]

Well,Mike, not to be unexpected.It's the obligatory "January Thaw" that usually hits in the coldest of winters.Seen it many. many times over my many years observing.It's usually followed shortly by a change to colder and snowy weather.I'm not concerned.

[sroc4]

Encouraging LR discussion from Larry Cosgrove.  


How Long Will The January Thaw Last? And What Will Follow?

From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the "January Thaw" will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, "Is winter over"? If you look at past history of the season so far, the volatile pattern swings back and forth between intense cold snaps and bizarre warm-up, with the tendency for the milder air to establish its presence over the southern and eastern tiers of the nation. This alignment has been repeated in the first week of January. So right off the bat we can say that any major surges of warmth have a tendency to be pushed out by portions of the vast cold air field across Canada, aided and abetted by the impressive snowpack that is touching the Gulf Coast at this time.

Keep in mind that I do not expect that snow cover to stay in the Deep South. The ice and snow field may actually recede into the far northern tier of the country to the right of the Continental Divide during the middle of the month. But here, climatology and the analogs point out that the southern branch wind field will work its magic, likely setting up a broad storm near Baja California by the end of the third week of the month. This is not a La Nina winter; rather, this is a negative/neutral ENSO signal that has sometimes displayed tendencies like an El Nino, with an impressive subtropical jet stream. If the ECMWF and GFS series are correct with energy from the northern jet stream digging through the Intermountain Region and phasing with the lower latitude wind maximum, the resultant cyclone will roll through Texas and into the lower Great Lakes around January 22 - 24. Such a track, of course, would pull the mean 500MB trough yet again into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Cold air drainage into the western 2/3 of the nation would surely follow.

But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just "part of the pattern" of the winter of 2016-2017.

With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun.

[sroc4]

I'm looking forward to Isotherm's Stratosphere update. We currently are at the tail end of a wave 1 attack, and the middle of a weak wave 2 event occurring as we speak which does look to shift the 10mb strat temps at least close to avg. in the near term, however, at least in the shorter term it does not look to affect the temps below 10mb of the strat that significantly. Above 10mb, at 1 and 5mb, the temps have been warming, and the winds have been trending weaker. One thing that Isotherm has alluded to thus far is the possibility of a more significant wave 1 and/or 2 attack on the stratosphere possibly coming around the 20th +/-, so any warming or disruption of any type before that to an exceptionally cold and strong strat would hopefully only help soften mid section some, and hopefully lower the hands if you will for a potentially more significant left hook or upper cut to the chin of the strat later in the month. I will let Tom (Isotherm) outline this is more detail.

[sroc4]

Lastly it looks like we are in the middle of another reinforcing SOI spike the likes of which looks to last approx another 1-2 days; the results of which is usually the amplification of the SE ridge, so its no surprise at what we are looking at with regards to cutters etc.  
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

However, beyond 48hrs it should come back down towards neutral territory, and there is some evidence that by the end of the week we could see a significant crash of the SOI as it appears that there will be HP building over Darwin Australia and pressures lower around Tahiti.  The MJO forecasts correlate nicely with the SOI spike as it is coming out in phases 5 and 6; however if the Md range MJO forecasts are correct they could be hinting at coming out in phase 1.  That said, and this has been said many times thus far this winter season, the Md and LR MJO forecasts have been deplorable at best.  IF we get a significant enough SOI crash , on the order of -15 to -20 or lower for a few days, expect a favorable MJO pulse, the result of which would likely lead to a trough and potentially a snow threat about 5-7days later.  Keep in mind; however, that the possibility of an SOI crash exists, but doesn't mean it is guaranteed.  LR forecast to the Darwin Tahiti regions of course can change just like in our back yards.

[Guest]

I know this Cosgrove guy is a highly educated Met, but any mention comparing this winter over our area to 1996 is OUTRAGEOUS IMHO!! We had 17 snow events of 3" or more that year.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I know this Cosgrove guy is a highly educated Met, but any mention comparing this winter over our area to 1996 is OUTRAGEOUS IMHO!!  We had 17 snow events of 3" or more that year.

In fairness what he's saying is late January through Mid March could be similar. 1995/96 had snow from November through April so I get your point.

95/96 was also the only year to my knowledge that LI recorded 5 consecutive months of 10 inches or more of snow which happened in December 1995 and Jan, Feb, Mar and April of 1996. They also had a couple of storm in November 1995 but didn't reach 10 inches that month or it would have been 6.

[Guest]

OK Gotya CP. I'm very sensitive to mention of that winter. It was EPIC. Best of my life by far. Lets hope he's right.

[sroc4]

Your looking at it all wrong Syo. When you look at LR patterns using analogue packages the way he does he simply brings up years that resemble the pattern that best fits based on where he feels the pattern is going. He is not simply making a statement like this winter is the same as that winter. He is stating that there may be a period coming up that resembles a similar 500mb pattern to that in 96.   Nothing more nothing less.  It has nothing to do with what's happened thus far.

[docstox12]

OK, Doc, all excellent analysis above of the upcoming January Thaw and the return to cold and wintry weather as per what usually happens here.Love the '95-'96 analog and hope there is some similarity as the winter plays out.

[amugs]

i'LL SAY IT ONE MORE TIME:
Take the stratosphere and soi and the grease truck along with all this - their is terrestrial (planetary) alignment configuration that will make February rock an dit i son course - unless in the next 10 days something goes awry. URANUS (no ones on this forum) is going to align at 60* with earths perigee and cause us to go into the freezer for February usually lasting about 20 - 25 days from my research after hearing Jim Witt talk about this. Time frame he said is late January through later February. His analog comparisons - and Jim dont take this literally, you will blow a gasket or two by doing so it is just as Scott said for comparison sakes:
Years of analog:
1917-18
1947-48
1977-78
1993-94
2014-15
Unusual to have this planetary pattern so close from recorded data.
He is calling for 8* BN for NYC & 8" AN in snowfall for NYC and the NYC metro, HV and Mid Atlantic Region.

We have a typical thaw incoming and then we reload.

Interesting tidbits and I do not know how this will play out but we have had high latitude volcanic activity. Joe D did a write about a week ago. The Alaskan aleutian chain have seen two volcanoes eruptions, considerable to a degree over teh past 4 week - spewing ash about 10K into the atmosphere. We would need that top go about 20K more to have a great effect on our weather and the upper winds to help blowing this our way. Watch this happens for March & April!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

i'LL SAY IT ONE MORE TIME:
Take the stratosphere and soi and the grease truck along with all this - their is terrestrial (planetary) alignment configuration that will make February rock an dit i son course - unless in the next 10 days something goes awry. URANUS (no ones on this forum) is going to align at 60* with earths perigee and cause us to go into the freezer for February usually lasting about 20 - 25 days from my research after hearing Jim Witt talk about this. Time frame he said is late January through later February. His analog comparisons - and Jim dont take this literally, you will blow a gasket or two by doing so it is just as Scott said for comparison sakes:
Years of analog:
1917-18
1947-48
1977-78
1993-94
2014-15
Unusual to have this planetary pattern so close from recorded data.
He is calling for 8* BN for NYC & 8" AN in snowfall for NYC and the NYC metro, HV and Mid Atlantic Region.

We have a typical thaw incoming and then we reload.

Interesting tidbits and I do not know how this will play out  but we have had high latitude volcanic activity. Joe D did a write about a week ago. The Alaskan aleutian chain have seen two volcanoes eruptions, considerable to a degree over teh past 4 week - spewing ash  about 10K into the atmosphere. We would need that top go about 20K more to have a great effect on our weather and the upper winds to help blowing this our way. Watch this happens for March & April!!

I'd love a cold and snowy March because to me March is just another winter month, especially the first 3 weeks of March. Oh hell I'd love a cold and snowy May if we can get it, a cold and snowy June might be a little too much even for me (but certainly not for Snowman if he reads this), not to mention the planet wide turmoil that would cause, see the summer of 1816 in the northeast or was it 1815?, it has happened.

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