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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:49 pm

Oh it's gotta be a roidzilla ahahahaha god I can't wait to see this map lmfao snows the whole time north and west of 287 ahaha love this model

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:50 pm

Yep inland like albany area sees 24+, even down to coast sees a little snow. I posted snow map in banter 1 sec.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:52 pm

I said this earlier to Al; of all of the operationals, I like its overall depiction of the evolution of H5 best. Anything regarding more detail than that with a setup like this this far out is playing with Fire, ESPECIALLY with operational runs. That said, it's great to gawk at and dream. Remember, I did mention the Blizzard of 1888 lmfao Wink Wink Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:55 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I said this earlier to Al; of all of the operationals, I like its overall depiction of the evolution of H5 best. Anything regarding more detail than that with a setup like this this far out is playing with Fire, ESPECIALLY with operational runs. That said, it's great to gawk at and dream. Remember, I did mention the Blizzard of 1888 lmfao Wink Wink Wink
DEf I think we need a thread for this looks like there will be SOME type of big storm. True can't take them verbatim but the keep showing stronger and stronger, I HOPE you are right this time, I do not see why this is not ALL snow, it bombs out.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:13 am

And after this storm I still think our area wide snow comes Feb. 1, Their are many vorts around
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:19 am

Bring it on bring it all on.
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:35 am

New thread for the 23rd-25th potential

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:New thread for the 23rd-25th potential

We started a thread at the same time. Merged them.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:39 am

It's coming February

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 F31210
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:40 am

It is apparent a MAJOR pattern change is coming on the 27th. Every single piece of guidance shows this. Put on your hard hats, it's coming.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:48 am

From Joe B. about 45 minutes ago.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/821749937130061824

And my apologies if I have put this in the wrong place.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:56 am

@TheAresian wrote:From Joe B. about 45 minutes ago.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/821749937130061824

And my apologies if I have put this in the wrong place.

Nope, all good. Wow that is nuts!

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:00 pm

@TheAresian wrote:From Joe B. about 45 minutes ago.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/821749937130061824

And my apologies if I have put this in the wrong place.
Wow! That's got HECS potential written all over it. Hope models don't back off on this major pattern change.
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:02 pm

Today's guidance insists the Wave 1 warming event that will take place late this month will lead to a full on SSWE in early February. So far, we're not seeing any one piece of guidance completely destroy the vortex. However, if the Wave 1 event keeps trending stronger then I can see future model runs begin to obliterate the PV by displacing completely off the Pole. 1hPa mean zonal winds are expected to reverse easterly and 10hPa is now inching closer to doing so as well. It remains far from certain, but it seems Strat forecasts keep trending more bullish by the day. If a SSWE occurs, it will be between February 5th and 10th.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 06_384_arctic10

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_26

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 U_lat_height_31


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Post by oldtimer Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:04 pm

So for us Frank at the coast it will be like a tropical storm?

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's guidance insists the Wave 1 warming event that will take place late this month will lead to a full on SSWE in early February. So far, we're not seeing any one piece of guidance completely destroy the vortex. However, if the Wave 1 event keeps trending stronger then I can see future model runs begin to obliterate the PV by displacing completely off the Pole. 1hPa mean zonal winds are expected to reverse easterly and 10hPa is now inching closer to doing so as well. It remains far from certain, but it seems Strat forecasts keep trending more bullish by the day. If a SSWE occurs, it will be between February 5th and 10th.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 06_384_arctic10

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_26

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 U_lat_height_31


Lets hope the QBO numbers finally start dropping off too. That would help the cause

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:12 pm

The two snow threats are 1/28-1/30. Then 2/1 -2/3. Is this correct
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:54 pm

The EURO is close to showing a Roidzilla January 28th. This falls in the January 27th - February 5th time frame I've liked for our next widespread snow event. Like I said earlier, put your hard hats on. This pattern change is going to hit us hard.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:57 pm

Most likely, this would change to snow for almost everyone. But temps, especially this far out, mean nothing.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 587fba5444a3b

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Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:20 pm

There she is Frank... Fits in nicely with the tropical forcing/SOI evolution and the overall pattern change.
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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:25 pm

i just cant imagine having 3 inches of rain on the 23rd and 5 days later get another huge storm. i just have a feeling that the 2nd storm will sort of ease out.. have we ever seen 2 big storms in 5 days??
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:35 pm

@jake732 wrote:i just cant imagine having 3 inches of rain on the 23rd and 5 days later get another huge storm. i just have a feeling that the 2nd storm will sort of ease out.. have we ever seen 2 big storms in 5 days??

Idk but I saw Sandy and the a week later a foot of snow. This pattern that's coming up is epuc
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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:36 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jake732 wrote:i just cant imagine having 3 inches of rain on the 23rd and 5 days later get another huge storm. i just have a feeling that the 2nd storm will sort of ease out.. have we ever seen 2 big storms in 5 days??

Idk but I saw Sandy and the a week later a foot of snow. This pattern that's coming up is epuc

100% right
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Most likely, this would change to snow for almost everyone. But temps, especially this far out, mean nothing.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 587fba5444a3b

This one better be a "Northwest Special" for those of us that reside on the northwestern fringes of this board's membership zone, because we've paid our fair share of dues these last several years ahahaha I'd have a breakdown if this ends up as a repeat of last year's, and I'm sure I wouldn't be alone lmao five straight days of jackpot only to watch it drift 60-80 miles south within the last 24 hours; how does that even happen anyway??? Ahahaha

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:46 pm

Your map man has got his wxbell back haha : )As frank already pointed out, oh baby LR Euro roidzilla anyone!! Do not let this badass winter TS get you down things are coming!


Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Roidzi10
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