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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 21, 2017 2:52 pm

Really nice post Tom

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 3:51 pm

Yes. Great post. Informative. Unfortunately it reinforces my post from last night where I was concerned that the incredible optimism and downright giddy posts about the long range pattern change which we've been reading about for over a week are being SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPERED DOWNWARDS

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:08 pm

Thanks guys. I think we may have a better opportunity rolling the dice with a southwest flow event as geopotential heights decrease in the West and the baroclinic zone lifts northward. The progged orientation of the PNA ridge in the 1/26-2/2 period is not conducive for tucked in coastal storms. We need it more Meridional and less SW-NE oriented, the latter of which tends to suppress / force short waves offshore. I'm not too optimistic about the 1/26-2/1 period. The gradient regime may give us a better shot, but I'm also worried about our area being too far south w/ SE Ridge issues in February.

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:17 pm

........and the beat goes on and on in a downwards fashion.

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Post by devsman Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:09 pm

I've already told people at work I believe a groundhog day storm is coming. So a groundhog day storm is coming.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:12 pm

@devsman wrote:I've already told people at work I believe a groundhog day storm is coming. So a groundhog day storm is coming.

If only it could repeat over and over again just like the Bill Murray Movie.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:52 am

Nice post Tom. I do think there is a ton of short waves coming out of the PJ between the 27th and 5th, and model handling of upper energy coming out of Canada this year has been pretty poor. So if a storm were to happen I wouldn't expect models to pick up on it until 6 or 7 days out. The baroclinic zone will be S&E because of PNA ridge orientation, but I've seen instances where a strong enough STJ vort travels north enough to force a phase with northern energy. I'm a big believer in +PNA patterns so we'll have to see. Regardless of storm or not storm, this is most definitely a pattern change compared to the mild weather we're seeing now.

I do disagree about temperature departures though. It does not look above normal the 1st to 15th in my eyes.

Average 2M temp anonalies first 5 days of February

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11

Then beyond the 5th depends on the strength / orientation of the WPO/EPO ridge. If strong enough, it will force the baroclinic zone to remain just S&E of our area while muting the SE ridge. We've seen this happen a couple of times already this winter. The EPS maintain colder than normal weather beyond the 5th.

I'm thinking normal to below normal through the 15th.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:27 am

This looks incredibly promising.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Temps
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Fluxes
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Waves

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Armando Salvadore Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:36 pm

To back up the stratospheric warming, here is your second wave 1 warming at 10mb come early Feb thanks to an ignition of the MJO. It does appear we're going to have the tilt needed (indicated by the ECMWF) to get this to really weaken, but how much does it down-well and if that is the case, what precursor effects does it have on the troposphere? Big battle between the GEFS and EPS for the 11-15. Given the pattern, i probably would buy a blend of the two because it appears we have a transient MJO wave before yet another wave forming in the western hemisphere, so it makes sense to see a jet retraction and -EPO/-WPO Aleutian ridge complex setup. I've noticed that there is more poleward heights with the ensembles this time around and also a more noticeable Scandinavian ridge that'd allow the TPV to push further south thus forcing the baroclinic zone further south. Still think we see something between 1/28-2/2. GEFS tried hinting at something around the 1st.


Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Screen12

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Screen27
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Post by Isotherm Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:05 pm

I think the 1/26-2/2 period has been trending worse every day, and the more likely time frame for something would be the following week, if the gradient is sufficiently south via pressing from the TPV.

The strat progression doesn't impress me yet. I think what may occur is a near miss - maybe - brief zonal reversal before reconsolidation with this attempt, followed by a stronger hit of wave-1 or potentially wave-2 via the tropospheric precursor pattern as we approach mid Feb. That may be the attempt to fully destroy or split the vortex and induce more effective downwelling. The coupling right now is rather poor, and I see no indication of a tropospheric NAM reversal through early February. The second half of February could see changes in the AO if we succeed in a more effective downward propagation.

This initial attempt looks very borderline to me, and based upon my research, the conditions are unfavorable for quick and efficient downwelling. Still uncertain whether we officially achieve the 10hpa/60N zonal wind reversal with this first attempt 2/1 as well.

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Post by Isotherm Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:49 pm

The key will be achieving sufficient height rises across the pole which, consequently would force the TPV further south and thus the baroclinic zone. The second week of February is the period I am cautiously optimistic about (producing "something", possibly in the form of a SWFE as I mentioned yesterday's post). It will be a close call because the pattern clearly favors the interior. I am slightly more inclined to believe Arctic height rises on model data this time around due to the much weaker stratospheric vortex. Not a real negative -NAO/AO pattern but closer to neutral would at least permit some opportunity, with a concurrent poleward ridge.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:39 am

The GFS shows abundant opportunities for snow events between the 29th and 8th. Temps are normal ttoo below normal (mainly below).

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:03 am

Any early indications as to what type of events? Not Godzillas and such, but clippers, Miller B's etc.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:05 am

@TheAresian wrote:Any early indications as to what type of events? Not Godzillas and such, but clippers, Miller B's etc.

The potential exists for Miller A and redeveloping Alberta Clippers.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:03 pm

Check out the progression of the 10hPa Strat PV on the GFS OP:

Current - PV over the Pole:

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_1

January 27th - Wave 1 warming event underway and beginning to weaken / displace PV toward Europe:

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_10

February 8th - PV is still intact but remains displaced off the North Pole. Positive geopotential heights encompass the Arctic.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_33

EPV is forecasted to get more poleward the end of this month. The forecasts keep getting bullish by the day. Reminder that a longer EPV means stronger vertical forcing going from the Trop to the Strat, while an arrow pointing toward the North Pole is more favorable for PV weakening. Also notice how 1hPa mean zonal winds are expected to go negative (easterly) suggesting the very top of the PV will get into an extremely weak state.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Fluxes

At Day 10, the EURO is VERY close to a technical SSWE at 10hPa/60N mean zonal winds.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Ecmwfzm_u_f240

As stated, I think the warming event will be significant enough to bring changes to our pattern, but it does not look like we'll achieve a SSWE that follows through from the mid to lower levels of the Stratosphere. It will be GREAT if models begin showing another Wave 1 to follow up from the one that will take place this weekend, or a Wave 2. Ultimately, I think that will destroy the PV.




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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:30 pm

And then look what the GEFS do by Day 12. -AO/-NAO with continuing -WPO/-EPO conditions. The progression on the GEFS is exactly how I felt the pattern change would go. Starts in the Pacific, works its way into the Arctic, then hope these higher heights begin showing up over the NAO domain.

Day 12

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Gefs2

Day 16

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Gefs3



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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:40 pm

Today's LR 12z GFS gives me a tingly feeling inside.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's LR 12z GFS gives me a tingly feeling inside.
The GEFS is looking great for cold and snow too!
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Post by Armando Salvadore Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:53 pm

Good agreement between the GEFS and EPS for this upcoming weekend into early next week. GEFS and EPS hinting at something diving south from western Canada and trying to redevelop a wave off the mid-atlantic coast. So, it appears we enter into a clipper pattern with a +PNA at hand. However, not the most ideal because +AO/NAO, but sufficient to produce at least something wintry.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Screen28

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Screen29

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Eps_sl10

I took the 12z GEFS and 0z EPS and took their respective tropical forcing forecasts because their is some discrepancy between the GEFS and ECMWF. Most likely, we see more of what the GEFS has, and that is we go from a weak phase 2 into a transient base state MC wave, then an initialization of a MJO wave back into the western Hemisphere.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Screen30

Now check this out, if we look at the 12z EPS, we now see the EPS latching onto the 12z GEFS idea and that is a much poleward and stronger ridge centered over the Aleutians down below!By the way, we do see a jet retraction as Tom alluded too and pacific wave break which will cause the anticyclone over the west coast and Alaska domain to retrograde. Ensembles are hinting at that connection of the Aleutian ridge and Scandinavia ridge, which would direct the TPV further south. Already have changes on the 12z EPS.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 39 Eps_z514
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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:07 pm

So does that mean we're going into an MJO phase 8 and 1 around this time frame, and is that what we're looking for in terms of a better chance at east coast trough/storms? (sorry if this is a dumb question, I'm trying to learn more of these long-range factors that we watch, so I may occasionally ask dumb questions).
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Post by Armando Salvadore Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:21 pm

@billg315 wrote:So does that mean we're going into an MJO phase 8 and 1 around this time frame, and is that what we're looking for in terms of a better chance at east coast trough/storms? (sorry if this is a dumb question, I'm trying to learn more of these long-range factors that we watch, so I may occasionally ask dumb questions).

Don't be sorry for asking! Currently, we're in a phase 1 signal and soon to be in phase 2 (indian ocean). Hovmollers and RMM indices indicate that we see a transient MJO wave disperse before igniting again in the western hemisphere and west pacific by the first week of Feb. Sometimes, the forecasts on those RMM plots may be wrong because of the destructive interference from the la Nina maritime continent standing wave. Any propagation of the MJO in the west pacific supports a poleward Aluetian ridge to extend and if it can punch into the Arctic circle, we'd see more influence of the polar vortex to push further south thus pushing the baroclinic zone south as mentioned several times.
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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:23 pm

@Armando Salvadore wrote:
@billg315 wrote:So does that mean we're going into an MJO phase 8 and 1 around this time frame, and is that what we're looking for in terms of a better chance at east coast trough/storms? (sorry if this is a dumb question, I'm trying to learn more of these long-range factors that we watch, so I may occasionally ask dumb questions).

Don't be sorry for asking! Currently, we're in a phase 1 signal and soon to be in phase 2 (indian ocean). Hovmollers and RMM indices indicate that we see a transient MJO wave disperse before igniting again in the western hemisphere and west pacific by the first week of Feb. Sometimes, the forecasts on those RMM plots may be wrong because of the destructive interference from the la Nina maritime continent standing wave. Any propagation of the MJO in the west pacific supports a poleward Aluetian ridge to extend and if it can punch into the Arctic circle, we'd see more influence of the polar vortex to push further south thus pushing the baroclinic zone south as mentioned several times.

Got it (in the big picture sense, haha) Thank you!
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:42 pm

18z GFS shows 2 little disturbances to watch

168 hours

222 hours
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:14 pm

Frank 12z 31st system thats just to south and bombs a little late?
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:46 pm

TWC's Tom Nizol just said, winter weather lovers in the east and especially Northeast should stay tuned to this pattern change. He likes clippers turning into Northeast snowstorms as they hit the coast.
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