NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:02 pm

Hi all -

I hope everyone had an excellent Christmas or Hanukkah. We've been talking about a possible snow event on the 29th and since models still show some snow, and we're within three days, I wanted to start a separate thread to talk about it.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Euro_1

The 00z EURO 500mb vorticity map valid 7am Thursday shows why this model is most bullish with developing a surface low off our coast. While boundary layer temps are too warm for NYC and immediate coast, those N&W and into PA are still fair game to seeing a light to moderate snow event. Notice how the west coast ridge really amplifies due to the cut-off upper level low off the coast of Baja.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  EURO_3

The +PNA ridge allows the trough over the east to sharpen as energy begins to transfer to the coast. There are a couple of low pressure centers actually. One in the Great Lakes (the primary) and another off the coast (secondary). As the transfer happens, a the secondary low develops and begins to "bomb" out once it gets into New England. An area of subsidence may exist between the primary and secondary low, and that is where the forecast could get difficult.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  EURO_2

Moving into 1pm Thursday, notice how the EURO has almost a "U-shaped" trough over the east. It's neutrally tilted enough to keep the surface low close enough to the coast to send precipitation as far west as eastern PA. The timing of the transfer between the primary and secondary is critical. Faster transfer would allow the secondary low to develop further S&W and bomb out quicker, putting areas at the coast at risk of accumulating snow too.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  GFS

Safe to say the GFS and EURO aloft do not agree. They look similar in the Pacific, but where they differ is the handling of the PVA within the trough. The GFS has an open trough which allows some upper energy to escape east. It does not have much of a transfer. Instead, the primary low dominates and more of a "front" moves through the area bringing light snowfall to almost everyone. Notice heights ahead of the eastern trough are flat too, so the baroclinic zone stays to our south and most of the area stays cold enough for snow.

Interestingly enough, the GEFS look more like the EPS and EURO OP in my opinion and today's 12z GFS took a step closer to the EURO. This leads me to believe EURO has a better idea of how to handle the upper energy and trough as it moves into the CONUS. We'll see what today's models show.

Timing is Thursday morning lasting into early Friday morning.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:10 pm

Today's EURO - a 992mb near BM.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  58615cf3043e9

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  58615d0c005d5

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  58615d1b35333

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:18 pm

EURO snow map. New England is line to for a Godzilla if this model is depicting things correctly.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Ecmwf_tsnow_nyc_18.thumb.png.0929fcf90de8d416de96d2c68677dc36

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:23 pm

Looks like it bombs out too far N and E of us but I would still get 4 or 5 up here in CP Land.Hoping it strengthens further south of us.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7207
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:40 pm

Based off this pic I assume JMA came in looking like EURO.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  C0n4H-BUcAAYblb


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:07 pm

18z nam ...kinda looks like euro we need a 30-50 mile shift s/e or quicker intensification
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_asnow_neus_27
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:22 pm

Very nice discussion from Upton on the Md and LR.  Cant argue with any of it.

Then...models trending towards better agreement with timing/strength
of phasing Northern stream and PAC energy as it digs from the
Northern Plains through the Ohio valley to the Eastern US for the
mid to late week...and its degree of interaction with the sub-
tropical energy/moisture. The sensitivity to this forecast continues
to depend on strength/timing of a wavepacket racing eastward from
the western Pacific early this week to the east coast by late week.
Models are trending towards a deeper northern trough tapping into
subtropical jet energy/moisture...resulting in low pressure
development over the Mid Atlantic along an approaching frontal
system Thursday. This low tracks se of the region Thursday and then
rapidly intensifies as it tracks into New England/Southeastern
Canada Thursday Night into Friday. Still some spread on
intensification rate and track of low pressure...but increasing
potential exists for a light to moderate precip event on Thursday.
The pattern looks conducive to a wintry mix changing to rain for the
coast with snow/wintry mix across the interior for Thursday.
Potential exists for at least light snow/sleet accumulations across
interior...particularly for interior portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley and SW CT.

In it wake...good agreement on polar air advecting into the NE US on
breezy w/nw flow Thu Night into Fri as the bombing low moves through
Southeastern Canada and high pressure builds to the south.
Temperatures should run a few degrees below seasonable...with highs
in the 30s Fri and Sat. Winds gusts in the 30-40 mph range likely on
Friday. Cyclonic flow...caa...and polar frontal passage on Friday
will present potential for snow showers/snow flurries.

Pattern remains active heading into the second half of the weekend
into early next week...with potential interaction between northern
stream and southern stream energies. Signal for a quick hitting
wintry mix event Sat Night/Sun...and then a more prolific precip
producer early next week.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6852
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by frank 638 Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:22 pm

With a track like that I thought that would good for snow even for the city and coast ?? Or do need more cold air

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2289
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:51 pm

@frank 638 wrote:With a track like that I thought that would good for snow even for the city and coast ?? Or do need more cold air

When you're dealing with a Miller B you either need more cold air or a rapidly intensifying storm.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by frank 638 Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:06 pm

That's what I figured thanks frank

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2289
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:36 pm


Compared to 18z, the 00z NAM is digging more with the trough but it better go neutral quick

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:36 pm

18z German model. Praise Jesus!

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  IMG_7177.thumb.PNG.94c5c0e679a291f3ebb9fdc6117bd6a9

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:37 pm

00z NAM

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d3bdc9936

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d3ceb8de8

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:39 pm

This is sick. Keep in mind NAM has a warm bias. 992mb low with temps crashing.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d43e3842f

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:40 pm

YES

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d4838f1c0

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by jake732 Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:43 pm

Frank, is it possible to explain the last model u just posted ? What is that showing different?
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:YES

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d4838f1c0

does that mean possibility for us further south and at the coast? if it were to verify?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2907
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:44 pm

@jake732 wrote:Frank, is it possible to explain the last model u just posted ? What is that showing different?

700mb critical thickness shows where the best banding is. Areas in white are likely dry slotted or the storm is finished for them. Darkest green = heaviest precip rates.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:YES

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d4838f1c0

does that mean possibility for us further south and at the coast? if it were to verify?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2907
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:45 pm

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  IMG_7182.thumb.PNG.9ee80ec5251d1f1ea2dd1f26ecc3ca90

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  F72.thumb.gif.a4523cf55311ea1d859ebbf8ab92a98f

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:48 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:YES

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d4838f1c0

does that mean possibility for us further south and at the coast? if it were to verify?

Yes, but at this time I do not feel confident the Jersey Shore will see significant accumulations. Unless this trend continues. We'll watch closely!!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:59 pm

If that High to the NE strengthens it could slow the secondary low down. That could help the storm bomb out sooner. A stretch without a true -NAO, but we'll see!

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d8cebd1b9_gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_fh72-76(1).thumb.gif.02c82ec3ceb706071c83bab53efda1ea

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19992
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:YES

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  5861d4838f1c0

does that mean possibility for us further south and at the coast? if it were to verify?

Yes, but at this time I do not feel confident the Jersey Shore will see significant accumulations. Unless this trend continues. We'll watch closely!!

Thanks Frank!! just curious...Hope you had a great Holiday!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2907
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jake732 wrote:Frank, is it possible to explain the last model u just posted ? What is that showing different?

700mb critical thickness shows where the best banding is. Areas in white are likely dry slotted or the storm is finished for them. Darkest green = heaviest precip rates.

?? Critical thickness relates to temperature, not precip.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:29 pm

last 3 nams trend? valid 7pm thurs
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  Empty Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum