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12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:54 pm

36° and dropping, NAM soundings for tomorrow morning suggest freezing rain to start here in NNJ, going to be a rough morning until it changes over....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:15 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:36° and dropping, NAM soundings for tomorrow morning suggest freezing rain to start here in NNJ, going to be a rough morning until it changes over....

I'm no expert here but I thought there were no problems at the mid levels with this setup, I thought it was surface temps that were going to be the problem and cause rain for most.

If it's 28 degrees and raining here tomorrow morning I may actually do something drastic, a man can only endure so much.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:40 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:36° and dropping, NAM soundings for tomorrow morning suggest freezing rain to start here in NNJ, going to be a rough morning until it changes over....

I'm no expert here but I thought there were no problems at the mid levels with this setup, I thought it was surface temps that were going to be the problem and cause rain for most.

If it's 28 degrees and raining here tomorrow morning I may actually do something drastic, a man can only endure so much.

I'm worried about the surface, I'm already down to 33° and even if it starts as rain and I get no snow, it will freeze on contact...

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:06 pm

34* here, and likely to drop into the upper 20s before leveling off. I suspect though the temperature may start to creep up again before the rain commences tomorrow morning helping to avoid any ice concerns here. That may not be the case where Janet is though where temps may take longer to rebound.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:26 pm

You can disregard my 1st call snow map. I think a couple of inches could fall in NEPA and areas N&W of NYC, but other then that, this will be a fast moving system with too much warm air advection keeping precip in the form of rain.

HRRR suggests snow beings breaking out in eastern PA and western NJ between 6:30-7:30am.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 Hrrr

By 9am, moderate to heavy snow could be falling in NW NJ, NEPA, and SW NY.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 Hrrr1

By 11am, likely sooner, almost everyone is rain except for high elevations of PA.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 Hrrr3

4KM NAM is similar. Here is 8am.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 4km

Then 1pm

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 4km2

Precip should shut off between 3-4pm.




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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:29 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:36° and dropping, NAM soundings for tomorrow morning suggest freezing rain to start here in NNJ, going to be a rough morning until it changes over....

I'm no expert here but I thought there were no problems at the mid levels with this setup, I thought it was surface temps that were going to be the problem and cause rain for most.

If it's 28 degrees and raining here tomorrow morning I may actually do something drastic, a man can only endure so much.

CP you should be absolutely fine.  I checked soundings for your location.  Janet however, and areas in NE NJ ish, the soundings show below freezing in the mid layers, but a warm nose sticking out just above 1000mb before it goes back to below freezing again at the surface at the onset of the precip moving in.  Above that warm nose precip is falling as snow, but then as it falls through the layer above freezing it melts, conts as rain; then freezes on contact on a below freezing surface.  Its very short lived(couple of hrs at most), and soundings not that far away dont show it, but any freezing rain if your unlucky enough to be driving while it happens could suck.  I labeled an image of 18z NAM soundings at hr18 that shows the warm nose.  Hopefully it doesnt happen Janet.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 Nam_2110

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:34 pm

I actually think CP and DOc will turn to rain. NAM, HRRR support that and GFS at 1pm has 925mb above freezing for them.

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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:36 pm

Well it seems the next major point of interest may be the Jan. 8 set-up.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I actually think CP and DOc will turn to rain. NAM, HRRR support that and GFS at 1pm has 925mb above freezing for them.

I'm talking more about freezing rain. They should at least start as snow before changing.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by snow247 Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:02 pm

Currently 29* here.
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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:46 pm

Interestingly already 26* and clear. Already colder at 9 pm than the projected low temperature. Not that it makes much difference I guess other than the aforementioned ice concerns.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:31 am

Since the map thread is locked already, I'll post my final call here:

Start:5-9am
End: 3pm (west)-12am Friday (northeast)

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 6 Slide213

Still think the northern and western areas end up getting snow-holed with this one because of a couple of reasons, which is why I stuck with the general idea of my first call. We'll see how it turns out!!

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