12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
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jmanley32
dsix85
nutleyblizzard
amugs
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
rb924119
weatherwatchermom
jake732
frank 638
sroc4
algae888
docstox12
Frank_Wx
18 posters
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

12z

18z

00z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:jake732 wrote:Frank, is it possible to explain the last model u just posted ? What is that showing different?
700mb critical thickness shows where the best banding is. Areas in white are likely dry slotted or the storm is finished for them. Darkest green = heaviest precip rates.
?? Critical thickness relates to temperature, not precip.
True, that map with how VV and CT are displayed threw me off. I did not even see the 540 CT line until zooming in.
To revise: the VV's (vertical velocities) and green shadings (relative humidity) show where precip is falling and at what rate / intensity.
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Valid 21z Wednesday, 00z GFS is better than 18z.
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Trough is sharper.
00z

18z

00z

18z

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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
GFS


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Wow - this is what the onset of bombogenesis looks like


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Here is why the immediate coast and NYC are unlikely to see major snow. Surface temps too warm.


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Euro from last night


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
NAM


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
GFS


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Roidzilla for Maine


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Frank_Wx wrote:Roidzilla for Maine
The usual scenario for a Miller B.My area has a 2 to 4 inch possibility looking at the current models.NWS took out the change to rain and now its all snow.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
I'll have a snow map out late tonight. Thinking the SE flow due to the primary Cutting in Canada will keep coast too warm for any accumulation. N&W in line for a moderate event.
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Frank is right. By the time the precipitation gets going here (and it won't ever really get going here as compared to what it may in New England) we're looking at temperatures near 40 degrees. Not gonna cut it for snow; even if a bit mixed in, wouldn't stick during daytime. I can see where our friends in the Hudson Valley north of NJ could get a bit of snow from this, but south of there not looking good.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
docstox12 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Roidzilla for Maine
The usual scenario for a Miller B.My area has a 2 to 4 inch possibility looking at the current models.NWS took out the change to rain and now its all snow.
I'm not sure how fast this moves or if it slows down at all but the positioning of the low as depicted here over SE NH usually works out for some pretty decent backend snow in the HV. Of course if the low is racing NE not so much.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Holy NAM




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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
RGEM looks colder than NAM


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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
If the nam and euro are correct then there's no way we don't flip to snow with a deepening low just south of Long Island. 850 and 925 look good just have to overcome the southeast wind at the start which will affect the low levels but that could be overcome if precipitation is heavy enough.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
syosnow94 wrote:DOC and CP, I PM'd you guys. Take a look.
Already answered
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
We'll flip to snow, but look at these 2M surface temps.
925mb - cold enough for snow (look at solid white line. If it's south of you, you are likely snowing).

But then surface temps...

Need a CCB or better dynamics to get the surface much colder if you want stickage.
925mb - cold enough for snow (look at solid white line. If it's south of you, you are likely snowing).
But then surface temps...
Need a CCB or better dynamics to get the surface much colder if you want stickage.
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Yes Frank the surface does look warm but models almost always are too high with surface temperature when precip is falling in a setup like this. If the low deepens quick enough to our South surface temperatures can be overcome. Like you said my main concern is how much precip will be left
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
Nothing too significant on the GFS aloft so far compared to 00z. The 00z GFS did not show anything spectacular for the area. 12z GFS should finish shortly.
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Re: 12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1
GFS aloft valid 12z THURS now looks better than 00z GFS. May want to transfer to coast sooner. Trough has more of a tilt to it. Not surprise given other guidance.
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