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12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:17 pm

A shamewe don't have a better airmass in place cause this would be an area wide SECS!! 
WWA imho for NNJ, NW NJ, LHV and WSW for areas about 50 miles N& W of NYC is quite possible.maybe

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:is that ukie all snow?

No

Anywhere north and west of I-95 it basically is though Wink

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:20 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:is that ukie all snow?

No
However if the UK is correct a lot of that precip is going to fall when the low is bombing out. So a significant amount of that could be in the form of snow
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Post by lglickman1 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:25 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:is that ukie all snow?

No
However if the UK is correct a lot of that precip is going to fall when the low is bombing out. So a significant amount of that could be in the form of snow


Ill take anything at this point, even if it doesnt stick

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:26 pm

Mugs dec 2002 does come to mind when looking at this system. I have a very vivid memory of that. It started turning over to snow around 3 in the afternoon and ended around midnight. had a foot of snow at my house in Mount Vernon and about 6 or so inches in the Bronx. I believe Central Park measured 4 inches.lol That was a heavy wet snow. Would love to go fine the setup for that system and see how it compares to this one.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:is that ukie all snow?

No

Anywhere north and west of I-95 it basically is though Wink

Well excuussssee me Rb..lolol

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:is that ukie all snow?

No

Anywhere north and west of I-95 it basically is though Wink

Well excuussssee me Rb..lolol

takenback

I was agreeing with you! The coastal areas have issues on that run verbatim, but inside of the 95 corridor it should be mainly white not wet lol So, it's not ALL snow aha

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:42 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@dsix85 wrote:Is it possible this new information could lead to a mixing event for LI instead of the original all rain event?

It is possible LI can be all snow for a period of time. The issue is getting it to stick. It could be a wet snow scenario.

@jmanley32 wrote:Been so busy just caught up.on past 2 days. So is there now some chance my area just north.of nyc may see some meaningful snow? It seems like storm is trending stronger and it will b colder from.the quick read I did. Here's hoping. Of course new England and Boston get hammered lol

Maybe a couple of inches...depends where banding sets up and timing of the cyclogenesis that takes place off the coast. We'll know more tonight.
really hoping that changes with hi results models as we get into 24 hr range. My daughter is dying to sled for 1st time.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:52 pm

@algae888 wrote:Mugs dec 2002 does come to mind when looking at this system. I have a very vivid memory of that. It started turning over to snow around 3 in the afternoon and ended around midnight.  had a foot of snow at my house in Mount Vernon and about 6 or so inches in the Bronx. I believe Central Park measured 4 inches.lol That was a heavy wet snow. Would love to go fine the setup for that system and see how it compares to this one.

Ask and you shall receive Wink

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/

Just navigate the file paths to whatever model/analysis you would like. In this case, it only goes to 2004, so use the NARR from the EWALL to find it:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002.html

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:55 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Mugs dec 2002 does come to mind when looking at this system. I have a very vivid memory of that. It started turning over to snow around 3 in the afternoon and ended around midnight.  had a foot of snow at my house in Mount Vernon and about 6 or so inches in the Bronx. I believe Central Park measured 4 inches.lol That was a heavy wet snow. Would love to go fine the setup for that system and see how it compares to this one.

Ask and you shall receive Wink

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/

Just navigate the file paths to whatever model/analysis you would like
Tku rb for some reason the PSU site doesn't load on my phone so I'll look when I get home this evening on my computer. Does the setup looks similar in your opinion
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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:04 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Mugs dec 2002 does come to mind when looking at this system. I have a very vivid memory of that. It started turning over to snow around 3 in the afternoon and ended around midnight.  had a foot of snow at my house in Mount Vernon and about 6 or so inches in the Bronx. I believe Central Park measured 4 inches.lol That was a heavy wet snow. Would love to go fine the setup for that system and see how it compares to this one.

Ask and you shall receive Wink

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/

Just navigate the file paths to whatever model/analysis you would like
Tku rb for some reason the PSU site doesn't load on my phone so I'll look when I get home this evening on my computer. Does the setup looks similar in your opinion

No worries!

To December 25th, 2002?? Not at all lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:11 pm

EURO!

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 5862ae9b2a229

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:11 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Been so busy just caught up.on past 2 days. So is there now some chance my area just north.of nyc may see some meaningful snow? It seems like storm is trending stronger and it will b colder from.the quick read I did. Here's hoping. Of course new England and Boston get hammered lol

It still rains in Boston through most of the event so that's not true.
your right I just glanced at snow map good lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:12 pm

We need the secondary on the EURO to develop 4-6 hours sooner for most area to see significant snow. This is a classic New England Godzilla. Oh darn.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO!

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 5862ae9b2a229

According to the snow map it's nothing spectacular aha

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 Screen39

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:20 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO!

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 5862ae9b2a229

According to the snow map it's nothing spectacular aha

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 Screen39

It's actually pretty bad. Very warm.

925's do not crash until hour 60 and not even for everyone. They are also pretty marginal.

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 925mb.thumb.png.62f99298321a65696f4dd47ce2592d34

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:20 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:is that ukie all snow?

No

Anywhere north and west of I-95 it basically is though Wink

Yes! N&W mugsy! We need to meet up somewhere tomorrow night! Hope it gets cold enough tomorrow night here in NNJ to achieve maximum stickage... good thing it's not tomorrow, way too warm today

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:20 pm

Wind flow is poo

12/29 Potential Snowstorm Update #1  - Page 4 5862b0158fb86_eurowind.thumb.png.c052c477047299c0aabeb45f6190a650

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:28 pm

Miller B storms are very tough to predict. I don't think we know the final solution yet, but the general theme is highest amounts in New England.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Miller B storms are very tough to predict. I don't think we know the final solution yet, but the general theme is highest amounts in New England.

Climatologically that's usually how it works out, the damn city that must not be named (starts with a "B") usually gets the goods with these, although this particular system looks to be too warm for them.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:33 pm

You know what this DOES remind me of, though; Nemo. Let me look this up lol

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:37 pm

Nope, not Nemo either.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:37 pm

I think Boston may be too warm too.

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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:56 pm

Damn Miller B-----s.
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:07 pm

Miller B's usually are the NE storms as we sit on outer fringes of such.
Need a 6 hour earlier hopeful bombgenesis and we will be rockin the white gold - NAM is rolling and lets see what he has to say!


Last edited by amugs on Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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