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Thursday 12-29 Storm Snow Maps

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Thursday 12-29 Storm Snow Maps Empty Thursday 12-29 Storm Snow Maps

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:41 pm

Here is the snow maps thread for Thursday's storm system. If you have a map you wish to post here, please let me know in the main thread or via PM.

My 1st Call & Synopsis:

Thursday 12-29 Storm Snow Maps 5863324aee357_December291stcall.jpg.d8de1a833e66ba1449c1fb2495f2179b

My 1st call is made with the premise that the secondary low does not undergo cyclogenesis in time to benefit our area. In addition, the decaying primary low in Canada provides too much of a SE flow which keeps surface temperatures above freezing. There is also a warm layer at or just below 925mb depending on your location. Rain may turn to snow as Thursday wares on, but I would not bet on it sticking unless you live in a blue shaded area where you will turn to snow sooner than the rest. Since Miller B's are difficult to predict I have a feeling we don't know the final solution yet. A final call will be issued tomorrow if necessary.

Ray's 1st Call & Synopsis:

Thursday 12-29 Storm Snow Maps Slide114

Worst of the system misses to our northeast, as is climatologically favored with these events. The reason for the swath of 2-4" through eastern PA, NW NJ and the eastern Catskills is because I feel that there will be meso-scale convergence at the low-levels enhancing the precipitation rates there. North of there I kept amounts low because it appears to me that there will be low-level divergence, which should mitigate some of the low-level warm air advection forcing mechanisms. Combine that with a lack of a significant bridge in forcing mechanisms between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, and lack of sufficient jet dynamics, I do not feel that those areas will see much more than a period of snow showers as the front drifts through. To the northeast, that is where I feel the coastal low will be rapidly taking over, which is why I have significantly higher amounts, although inland, as there will be a large surge of warmth well into the coastal plain of southern New England.

I'm sure many of you will think I'm crazy for this map, and I agree I don't have very much support. However, I do expect this to trend a bit further south over the next 24-30 hours, which should cool the thermal profiles a bit. This will also support my western 2-4" zone through eastern PA etc. as that will shift the meso-scale convergence into that region. I am very uneasy with the region northwest of that, as there is decent bust potential there, but at this time I am not seeing enough overlap through the atmospheric forcing mechanisms to warrant expanding higher totals northwestward......YET. That very well may change haha Updates will be issued tomorrow, likely after the 12z suites. Discuss!!

Bobby's (Eastern PA Weather Authority) 1st Call & Synopsis:

Thursday 12-29 Storm Snow Maps Snowma10

Click here to read his synopsis: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/


CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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