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January 2017 Observations & Discussions

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:36 pm

The 18z nam popping a low off The Jersey coast for Monday get some snow into the City and Long Island
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:39 pm

The 3K Nam gives Southern New Jersey 6 to 9 inches of snow on Monday up to three inches central New Jersey Shore
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:42 pm

Wow all the nam models give the southern third of New Jersey 3 to 6 inches of snow the high-res gives more incredible from just 12 Z and 0 0 Z last night waiting for the rgem to confirm if this has any shot
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:47 pm

Yes...that's why IVT are tough to forecast. Let's see what other short range guidance shows later on.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ok it's 41 and snow flurries but the noreaster was 36 and pour rain. Go figure. Doesn't make sense.

Not everywhere. Still encased in a solid white 3 inches of sleet that isn't going anywhere courteously of that storm. I get your point though. I never went above 33 that whole storm and received 6 inches of snow and sleet and freezing rain that should have been 24 inches of snow.

I'm hoping February finally brings us something we have not had since March 2015 and that is above normal snowfall in a Month with normal or below normal temperatures. That would be a refreshing change.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:31 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Ok it's 41 and snow flurries but the noreaster was 36 and pour rain. Go figure. Doesn't make sense.

Not everywhere. Still encased in a solid white 3 inches of sleet that isn't going anywhere courteously of that storm. I get your point though. I never went above 33 that whole storm and received 6 inches of snow and sleet and freezing rain that should have been 24 inches of snow.

I'm hoping February finally brings us something we have not had since March 2015 and that is above normal snowfall in a Month with normal or below normal temperatures. That would be a refreshing change.
this ivt sounds like it could deal the goods to a lucky area. This monday? As in about 36 hrs away?
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:09 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Ok it's 41 and snow flurries but the noreaster was 36 and pour rain. Go figure. Doesn't make sense.

This is something that always fascinated me, how I could see flurries or snow showers in the mid 40's but heavy rain at 33.Guess it's a function of how thick the warmer layer of air is close to the ground.

26.6, 83%, 29.39R, mostly cloudy ATM. Calm wind. 2 inches of sleetpack still around so at least it looks like winter up here.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:20 am

I hoping for some snow tonight I'm in a WWA issued by Mr Holly this morning. Anything would be nice
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:53 am

The smell of snow is in the air.....hope it's not my imagination currently 33*
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:57 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:The smell of snow is in the air.....hope it's not my imagination currently 33*

Hopefully we see some overnight it looks like the inverted trough is favoring South and cnj atm.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:12 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:The smell of snow is in the air.....hope it's not my imagination currently 33*

Hopefully we see some overnight it looks like the inverted trough is favoring South and cnj atm.

Skins you have a great chance to see unexpected snow fall from the system overnight as does all of cenral to southern NJ and LI esp the S shore.  I have to get my son ready for soccer otherwise I would actually put out a snow map and a discussion.  When I'm home later this afternoon I may try to put something together if someone else hasn't.  Just look at vertical velocities through southern and central NJ.  All we need is a trigger above and we may get some thin bands of heavy snow develop for a short period.  Skins it would not surprise me if you ended up with a surprise 2-4".  iTS NOT DEF OF COURSE

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Vv10

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 700hvv.us_ne
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 700hvv.us_ne
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 700hvv.us_ne

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:16 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:The smell of snow is in the air.....hope it's not my imagination currently 33*

Hopefully we see some overnight it looks like the inverted trough is favoring South and cnj atm.

Skins you have a great chance to see unexpected snow fall from the system overnight as does all of cenral to southern NJ and LI esp the S shore.  I have to get my son ready for soccer otherwise I would actually put out a snow map and a discussion.  When I'm home later this afternoon I may try to put something together if someone else hasn't.  Just look at vertical velocities through southern and central NJ.  All we need is a trigger above and we may get some thin bands of heavy snow develop for a short period.  Skins it would not surprise me if you ended up with a surprise 2-4".  iTS NOT DEF OF COURSE

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 700hvv.us_ne
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 700hvv.us_ne
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 700hvv.us_ne
Tx for the quick write up ....good luck with your sons game Smile
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:37 am

Nam and srefs showing an inch of liquid this looks like 20 to 1 ratio. Could be 6 plus cnj to snj. Getting excited here.January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Srefne10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:37 am

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Namcon10
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:02 am

Skins I know your excited and looking for snow So am I buddy. But those maps show .20 qpf not 1 inch my man. Ant with temps at 30 tonight 20:1 is not going to happen. Hope I'm wrong though good luck

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:09 am

12z nam went south compared to prior run. Not looking good for us northern Jersey folks. Mad
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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:16 am

Who wants to chip in on a snow maker machine on a flat bed? Doc and I could drive it around to members' home and bring some snow happiness around. It would get a lot of work around and above I-84.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:20 am

syosnow94 wrote:Skins I know your excited and looking for snow So am I buddy. But those maps show .20 qpf not 1 inch my man. Ant with temps at 30 tonight 20:1 is not going to happen. Hope I'm wrong though good luck

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Namcon12
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Post by jake732 Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:31 am

Skinns , what a beauty NAM model overnight. Unfortunately it went south and basically misses us totally.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:47 am

12z NAM is a bit of a disappointment

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Namcon10

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:16 am

Here's an update on the 3 storm threats. The SCI is updated on the homepage.

IVT: If this sets up, it will bring accumulating snow to southern and coastal NJ into Central and eastern LI. A coating to an inch is possible for the rest of NJ, including NYC Since these are largely unpredictable, I'm keeping probability low. As much as 3 to 5 inches of snow is possible if it sets up. Timing would be late tonight through 10am Monday (tomorrow).

Clipper: I downgraded chances for accumulating snow from 40 to 20%. The upper air energy is simply not digging nor strong enough to bring about a strong surface low capable of dropping a few inches of snow. We'll see how this trends today and tomorrow, but models aren't impressed. The H5 energy is literally strung out from coast to coast. If a piece was able to break off and become it's own entity we would have seen a good storm.

February 6th: this one remain out in the LR but it's clear a storm will only happen if the Pacific cooperates. A ridge out west or over the EPO domain will allow the polar energy to dig into the eastern CONUS and interact with southern stream energy to bring about a coastal low. This no longer looks like a SWFE since we're reliant on the northern energy. This no longer looks like southern stream dominant storm. The EURO flattens the PAC ridge while GFS keeps it intact to bring about a storm. Will look at this more on Tuesday.


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:20 am

Hi Res NAM for clipper on Tuesday

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 588e0686de279.png.8480d01936ab8e19301e1058923ca5d0

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:24 am

As a betting man our 3 snow chances look a lot closer to not happening then happening. Swing and a miss. If these 3 events were forecast to be rain storms then we'd be in!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:57 am

GFS tomorrow morning. Snowy.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:50 am

@dkodgis wrote:Who wants to chip in on a snow maker machine on a flat bed?  Doc and I could drive it around to members' home and bring some snow happiness around. It would get a lot of work around and above I-84.

LOL, Damian, I think you have a great idea there! Kinda like ski resorts, we could put 6 to 12 on the members property,lol.

looks like any chances of snow are way S and E of us tomorrow.
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