NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Page 12 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:24 pm

SNJ FTW - with dynamics Ocean, Atlantic and Cape MAy can easily see 3" plus

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 C3WtRTCVcAAGTMZ

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12083
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:36 pm

@amugs wrote:SNJ FTW - with dynamics Ocean, Atlantic and Cape MAy can easily see 3" plus

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 C3WtRTCVcAAGTMZ

Anyone north of NYC, keep the line moving folks nothing to see here.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6658
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:45 pm

Yep, that's WAY south, but some of our posters here will have a nice surprise tomorrow morning.My buddy in Atco NJ, halfway between Philly and AC should do well.

40.2, 45%, 29.38 R. Partly cloudy, calm.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7216
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:44 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Yep, that's WAY south, but some of our posters here will have a nice surprise tomorrow morning.My buddy in Atco NJ, halfway between Philly and AC should do well.

40.2, 45%, 29.38 R. Partly cloudy, calm.

Hey doc I use to go out their back when I was in my 20s for the drag track . Great Memories
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:17 pm

I'm just barely in the northern fringe of that shading aound ny. Close call for some flakes or nada
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17927
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:20 pm

RGEM trended N by about 50 miles and GEFS has snow into the LHV, showing the LP stronger and a NNE movement

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 I_nw_EST_2017012918_020
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 I_nw_EST_2017012918_021

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12083
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:35 pm

@amugs wrote:RGEM trended N by about 50 miles and GEFS has snow into the LHV, showing the LP stronger and a NNE movement

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 I_nw_EST_2017012918_020
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 I_nw_EST_2017012918_021


wow mugs so what are we looking at 2-4 area wide sounds good
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:46 pm

@amugs wrote:RGEM trended N by about 50 miles and GEFS has snow into the LHV, showing the LP stronger and a NNE movement

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 I_nw_EST_2017012918_020
January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 I_nw_EST_2017012918_021

hey mugs...if this were to happen and does effect my area..what time are we looking for this to start?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2910
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:47 pm

NWS has me in a HWO, expecting light snow up here...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4351
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:18 pm

Wondering if the area of snow and rain on the radar extending from over the Susquehanna Valley in south central PA down to the Baltimore MD area currently heading northeast will bring us a period of snow later tonight.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3604
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:28 pm

Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:31 pm

@track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4441
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:33 pm

Awesome

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:53 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
what time frame are we looking at...sorry I am asking again
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2910
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:57 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
what time frame are we looking at...sorry I am asking again

Sorry Joanne, start time just before school drop-off!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4351
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:04 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
what time frame are we looking at...sorry I am asking again

Sorry Joanne, start time just before school drop-off!

thanks Janet was curious..you know what I was hoping for...Smile . unfortunately  son still  not well enough to go back to school tom...this flu thing is horrible...
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2910
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:14 pm

Nam is coming south with the second clipper.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1714
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 54
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:19 pm

When is the 2nd clipper

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:19 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam is coming south with the second clipper.

is that the one for tues afternoon?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2910
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:20 pm

Here's my forecast for the clipper, for those interested:

Admittedly, the 3-5" zone may be better served as a 2-4", but I have some reasoning behind it. Although this is a clipper, which usually means the system won't be good for much more than an inch or two, it is moving into a more favorable spot. As it approaches our region, it does phase in some additional mid-level energy which is clearly shown to amplify the mid-level energy and differential potential vorticity advection (forcing for ascent). While there is no jet help to really fuel this system, the lower levels do provide some additional simultaneous support. Based on the season's tendency to develop systems shortly prior to reaching the coastline, likely due to the warmer than normal coastal waters, I am sticking with that trend here. Therefore, not only will there be a closed surface low pressure that develops prior to reaching the coast, but because there is a phase at H5, this should also allow the lower levels to close off in rather quick succession (H925 and then H850). As a direct result, this should work to quickly, although relatively briefly, enhance the low-level frontogenetical forcing for ascent. Third, there also appears to be a mild signature of H700 frontogenesis developing as a result of the lower levels closing off, thus changing the thermal gradient orientation to a more warm air advective profile and providing further forcing for ascent through this layer. With H5 energy and differential positive vorticity advection quickly increasing thanks to the phase, a band of moderate precipitation should develop just on the northwestern side of the lower level lows as the system swings through. One last thing to consider, is once the lower levels close off, this should also aid in increasing moisture fluxes off the Atlantic some, and wiith thermal profiles and saturation vapor pressures appearing to be conducive for plate snow crystal habits, accumulations should occur fairly efficiently through most of the window of moderate precipitation. Assuming ratios of 15:1 at minimum, with more likely 18:1, I do feel 3" should be achievable, with a few spots eclipsing 4". We'll see!!

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Slide117

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:20 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam is coming south with the second clipper.

is that the one for tues afternoon?
Yes.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1714
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 54
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:26 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam is coming south with the second clipper.

is that the one for tues afternoon?
Yes.

thank you
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2910
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:30 pm

Started a thread for Tuesdays clipper. Tomorrow's event we can keep observations in this thread. Ray, nice writeup.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19994
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Started a thread for Tuesdays clipper. Tomorrow's event we can keep observations in this thread. Ray, nice writeup.

Thank you, sir! Now hopefully it verifies Razz Razz Razz

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Guest Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:52 pm

Good post Ray. I'll preface this next comment with the fact that I am expecting zero snow out of this but......how can your map have a 3-5" line that if extended offshore of NJ should include the eastern half and south shore of LI but instead all of LI is c-1"? Just curious. Thanks

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 12 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum