NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 2017 Observations & Discussions

+31
devsman
HectorO
Grselig
rb924119
SNOW MAN
skinsfan1177
Joe Snow
Isotherm
algae888
dkodgis
RJB8525
billg315
oldtimer
Dtone
docstox12
Radz
frank 638
sroc4
snow247
Taffy
mako460
Math23x7
dad4twoboys
bobjohnsonforthehall
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
amugs
aiannone
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
CPcantmeasuresnow
35 posters

Page 13 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13

Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Good post Ray. I'll preface this next comment with the fact that I am expecting zero snow out of this but......how can your map have a 3-5" line that if extended offshore of NJ should include the eastern half and south shore of LI but instead all of LI is c-1"?  Just curious. Thanks

Thanks! And I knew I should have extended the contours offshore because I had a feeling this question was going to be asked aha basically, the system takes more of an east or east-northeast track once offshore instead of a more northeasterly track. Combined with the fact that it can't fully wrap itself up, it doesn't have the ability to form a very expansive precipitation shield. These factors keep the best forcing and precipitation rates offshore. In reality, the southern coast of Long Island borders the 1-3" zone, which means that it should end up with about an inch, if that clarifies it at all...

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jake732 Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:38 pm

Ray do u really think cnj can get 3-5?? Does any model agree with u?
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:56 am

23.1, 80%, 29.47 R

Looks like the IVT is even further south on the radar.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:49 am

Well that was a horrible forecast. I don't know what's more frustrating; the fact that the radar looked very similar to how I pictured it in my head and it just never translated to the surface, or the fact that I specifically said in my discussion that it's a clipper and they are never good for more than an inch or two at most but went ahead anyway? Opinions? Lol my bad guys and gals. That's the second time this season that I've gone against long-standing patterns and observations, and the second time I've been horribly wrong by doing so. Point taken, Mother Nature, point taken.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:53 am

Live and learn is what I normally tell myself. Onto the next one! Very Happy

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:00 am

Inverted troughs are tough to forecast
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:01 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Live and learn is what I normally tell myself. Onto the next one! Very Happy

Agreed. I'm just really hard on myself lol I'm a perfectionist, so no matter how little or much I'm wrong by, I take it to heart and beat myself up over it. In a vast majority of situations, I see the warning signs, admit they're there, but am usually too headstrong to take them seriously. I also try to beat models at their own game sometimes, which works well outside of 24 hours, but not so much inside, and that's something I HAVE to try to change. As you said, though, I always take away a lesson, because failure is where you create success.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:04 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Inverted troughs are tough to forecast

It wasn't really an inverted trough, just like an open wave. It started out looking like an IVT a few days ago, but it evolved. This is one I wish I could get back.....ughhhhhh lol oh well

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:11 am

29* - nice winter feel again.

Ray weather is a humbling experience dont be hard on yourself we all support you and love you man. OTI has a special passport/visa for you if you need to shake it off. Doc and CP will verify if needed.

Mugs

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12202
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:39 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Live and learn is what I normally tell myself. Onto the next one! Very Happy

Agreed. I'm just really hard on myself lol I'm a perfectionist, so no matter how little or much I'm wrong by, I take it to heart and beat myself up over it. In a vast majority of situations, I see the warning signs, admit they're there, but am usually too headstrong to take them seriously. I also try to beat models at their own game sometimes, which works well outside of 24 hours, but not so much inside, and that's something I HAVE to try to change. As you said, though, I always take away a lesson, because failure is where you create success.

rb, please don't be offended by me giving you some advice.When I was your age, i would always listen to "old heads", which is what I am now at age 66.Do not be so hard on yourself! You have a long run ahead of you, and life will throw you a lot of curveballs, ESPECIALLY, when you are dealing with a science with so many changing variables.You and the rest of the long range crew should look to get 50 to 75 % accuracy, and if it doesn't work out...well, learn from it and move to the next one.Perfection on God's Green Earth is impossible and will lead you straight into an extended stay at the OTI, Sanitarium,LOL.My late Dad would tell me about marriage.."if you get 75% of what you want you are doing GREAT." same thing applies with anything in life including what you long range guys do.KCACO!!!

Your pal, DOCSTOX

28.2, 70%, 29.49R Mostly cloudy, Calm
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:35 pm

According to Mt. Holly, BOLO for some snow surprise showers this afternoon down south. Of course, it's sunny and 40 now...

SENJsnowman

Posts : 754
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Guest Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:07 pm

1.5" today brings my season total to 19.5" Still more than almost all members which is pathetic.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:31 am

syosnow94 wrote:1.5" today brings my season total to 19.5"  Still more than almost all members which is pathetic.

Not more than up here fella. Plus we've had solid snow cover for 11 straight days, didn't your 11 inch storm disappear in two days? That should only count as half.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:46 am

I haven't really kept track because its been so sporadic, but I'd guess I'm about 7 or 8 " for the winter. None of which stayed on the ground more than a couple days.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3643
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 13 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum