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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:44 am

GFS is a solid 1-3", more on Long Island maybe.

The worst part is this comes in during morning rush hour. PLAN TO WORK FROM HOME.

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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:57 am

2-4 for NYC on GFS
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:07 am

@Snow88 wrote:2-4 for NYC on GFS

My dog will be happy.

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:38 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:2-4 for NYC on GFS

My dog will be happy.

with ratios maybe higher??

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:39 am

Hoping we get a delayed out of this for school. Last time they brought us in on a snowy morning last year 2 buses skidded off teh road and 30 teachers were late by 30 minutes plus - hopefully they will learn from t5his and not American Amnesia!! The trend is very good with this and I see about 50 mile more lean NW IMO. WHy you ask tis has been a trend with most of our coastal in teh last year

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:53 am

My major concern is that with a fresh dry air mass, we may loose a bit of the precip to virga. However, if the west trend continues, that won't really be an issue. To get the 2-4" storm, I would like .3-.4" qpf to start showing on the models
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:28 pm

I note with sadness that Bill Evans thinks above I-84...nothing but a few flurries. That's me. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:01 pm

Euro not enthused at all with this wave
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:07 pm

Nearly identical to the 0z run though
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:11 pm

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 5 Precip10
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 5 Precip10

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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:16 pm

EURO is a giant kick to the groin for both events

Brick

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is a giant kick to the groin for both events

Brick
I thought u said 2nd event was only a small step back. This however is wow nearly nada. Not even worth ur time for a snow map if u think euro is right. I'm thinking the Sr prolly better since this within 72 hrs. Closer to 48 actually.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is a giant kick to the groin for both events

Brick
I thought u said 2nd event was only a small step back. This however is wow nearly nada. Not even worth ur time for a snow map if u think euro is right. I'm thinking the Sr prolly better since this within 72 hrs. Closer to 48 actually.

The 1st wave I was never enthused with. I just feel the gradient is too far S&E so we're kept out of the best lift. Couple that with 500mb energy west of the area, I don't see an impressive event here.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:33 pm

It looks like nothing but flurries west of the City, but it looks like 1-3" east of the city, and obviously closer to 1" west and 3" east
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:41 pm

Personally I am not too upset of this one doesn't pan out though I'd live to have two storms back to back I'll take the one that has chance to produce way more.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:43 pm

SREF plume mean for Islip, NY is 2" still.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:31 pm

18z rgem comes in much better not great but much better than 12z - markedly better

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:34 pm

@amugs wrote:18z rgem comes in much better not great but much better than 12z - markedly better
Yeah it did but its still LR for the SR model, so we shall see, I am hoping as much as the bext guy, if this came much closer this could have been a big snowfall too, but as Frank said its not going to come that close.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:16 pm

So this first storm seems to trending stronger?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:20 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So this first storm seems to trending stronger?

1-3" with isolated spots seeing 4" depending on where the higher rates fall. Will examine later on

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Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:39 pm

With little QPF, sufficient amount of lifting and VV within the dendrite growth zone (mind you its about 200-300mb deep) and enough relative humidity could make for higher ratios. The 18z NAM and hi res including the RGEM did put down a not too shabby output of QPF. Take that and higher than the standard 10:1 ratio (using ~14/15:1), and you're good with a 1-3/2-4" event with more as you head closer to the coast. Atmosphere is pure saturated during the "peak" of this event as well. Maybe some surprises with this one, but again, not talking anything over 5" for NNJ lets say. Still, it's an interesting light event.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:15 pm

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 5 15781310

wowzers!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:22 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 5 15781310

wowzers!
thsts alot more than 1 to 3 wow. Which model is that it's cut off.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:23 pm

where did everyone go?
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:32 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:where did everyone go?

Burnt out from flip flopping model runs! Very Happy I'm hoping for just enough snow to enjoy a white birthday! I think I will see 2"-3" here in NNJ. I finally have a break from the rat race tonight, so I am going to look at the short range models... hopefully they will give us a few inches!

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