January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
+19
dkodgis
aiannone
Dunnzoo
skinsfan1177
hyde345
weatherwatchermom
jake732
sroc4
Armando Salvadore
Vinnydula
Snow88
Math23x7
amugs
algae888
nutleyblizzard
rb924119
jmanley32
frank 638
Frank_Wx
23 posters
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Armando. Maybe in a lull you can do a write up with graphics to educate me on reading soundings better. I'm headed to bed tonight but if you ever have the time it would be awesome.
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
sroc4 wrote:Armando. Maybe in a lull you can do a write up with graphics to educate me on reading soundings better. I'm headed to bed tonight but if you ever have the time it would be awesome.
You sure bet i can teach ya! When we reach the winter hiatus of Jan, that is the best chance to do so!
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
GFS is not as robust as the NAM likely 1-3" CNJ and east of NYC
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Prints out .1-.2" for CNJ and points east of NYC
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
6z rgem trending wetter for wave 1
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
1-2" with higher with ratios. doesn't look right for LI.
3k nam
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
any changes for tom morning?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
NWS Upton latest amounts. Went up a little bit over LI
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Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Verbatim, there is some 4-5" spots in CNJ and ELI. We have seen storms like this before were there is a sharp cut off between 3-4" and a coating-2" based on proximity to the surface low(better precip rates).Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Quietace wrote:Verbatim, there is some 4-5" spots in CNJ and ELI. We have seen storms like this before were there is a sharp cut off between 3-4" and a coating-2" based on proximity to the surface low(better precip rates).Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI
Hey I really don't like to ask about my back yard..but I am by Sandy Hook...in that darker green....so I should hope for the 3-4 range...just curious..really want a snow day...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
You have a high probability of seeing see around 3". It will be a tough call for schools. Heaviest snow will be falling right as they are making the decision. Further south east/ east the higher likely hood of cancellation as the system will hang on until near 10-11am, and the snowfall rates will be higher.weatherwatchermom wrote:Quietace wrote:Verbatim, there is some 4-5" spots in CNJ and ELI. We have seen storms like this before were there is a sharp cut off between 3-4" and a coating-2" based on proximity to the surface low(better precip rates).Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI
Hey I really don't like to ask about my back yard..but I am by Sandy Hook...in that darker green....so I should hope for the 3-4 range...just curious..really want a snow day...
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
12z GFS much wetter with tonight's wave
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Anyone have total QPF from the 12z GFS for tonight?
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
2-4" over LI and CNJ and this is at 10:1
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
aiannone wrote:Anyone have total QPF from the 12z GFS for tonight?
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
.3" with a temp between 20-27 yields a solid 4-4.5" of snow as per the chart I use
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_R8xVtHAV1lc/TQktarpBmiI/AAAAAAAAMvE/DnKzJEVmLpw/s1600/snow%20to%20water%20ratio%20chart.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_R8xVtHAV1lc/TQktarpBmiI/AAAAAAAAMvE/DnKzJEVmLpw/s1600/snow%20to%20water%20ratio%20chart.jpg
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Yeah another LI jackpot along withe coastal NJ !
Schools along the coast NJ will be delayed if not cancelled down there - I am hoping for a delayed at best if we can get 2" .
Alex you know from years gone by when you were in HS and you would always ask me (PM)about this - I was right 90% of the time!
Ti smnap is MM so 2.5 - 5 MM is .10 to .20 inches at 10 -1 ratio gives us 1 - 2" with 15:1 gives 1.5 - 3" and 20:1 gives us 2-4"
Schools along the coast NJ will be delayed if not cancelled down there - I am hoping for a delayed at best if we can get 2" .
Alex you know from years gone by when you were in HS and you would always ask me (PM)about this - I was right 90% of the time!
Ti smnap is MM so 2.5 - 5 MM is .10 to .20 inches at 10 -1 ratio gives us 1 - 2" with 15:1 gives 1.5 - 3" and 20:1 gives us 2-4"
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
amugs wrote:Yeah another LI jackpot along withe coastal NJ !
Schools along the coast NJ will be delayed if not cancelled down there - I am hoping for a delayed at best if we can get 2" .
Alex you know from years gone by when you were in HS and you would always ask me (PM)about this - I was right 90% of the time!
Ti smnap is MM so 2.5 - 5 MM is .10 to .20 inches at 10 -1 ratio gives us 1 - 2" with 15:1 gives 1.5 - 3" and 20:1 gives us 2-4"
Ohh I remember, you were my source for school delays and closings predictions lol. This will prime the ground for the Sunday possibility haha.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
HRRR is not too enthused for this. Has c-1" for most. I like to compare it to radar evolution to observe it's accuracy once we get within 12 hours of start time. It is pretty quick with it moving in and out in less than 6 hours dropping less than .25" precip for most.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.170106T0300Z-170106T1500Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
314 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY.
* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND, COASTAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTY.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH RUSH HOUR FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.170106T0300Z-170106T1500Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
314 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY.
* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND, COASTAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTY.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH RUSH HOUR FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Just observational but the radar doesn't look bad for the snow already falling just from the wave itself without the coastal low even having developed. Who knows, maybe it surprises us with a nice quick shot of 2-4.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
billg315 wrote:Just observational but the radar doesn't look bad for the snow already falling just from the wave itself without the coastal low even having developed. Who knows, maybe it surprises us with a nice quick shot of 2-4.
RGEM
My LSC boy thinks NYC and EWR sees 3" saying good moisture flow STJ and warm waters of hotlantic with good to great ratios - 2014-15 incoming are his thoughts. Says storm will have good saturation and timing of hourly snowfall - coldest part of the day to help enhance it.
SM FTW!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
amugs wrote:billg315 wrote:Just observational but the radar doesn't look bad for the snow already falling just from the wave itself without the coastal low even having developed. Who knows, maybe it surprises us with a nice quick shot of 2-4.
RGEM
My LSC boy thinks NYC and EWR sees 3" saying good moisture flow STJ and warm waters of hotlantic with good to great ratios - 2014-15 incoming are his thoughts. Says storm will have good saturation and timing of hourly snowfall - coldest part of the day to help enhance it.
I think that's entirely possible. Very large snow shield on the radar now and if the intensity could kick up even a little between 3-8 am, we already know it's going to have very cold air to work with. We shall see.
SM FTW!!
Entirely possible. Radar looks decent and we know the moisture will be hitting a lot of very cold air when it gets here. If we can just get a good burst between 3-8 am, I think it has a chance to over-perform a bit. Either way timing is bad for rush hour traffic in the AM.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Entire coastline is in WWA for 1-4. I posted it a page or so back, was hoisted at about 3pm.
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