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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:39 pm

GFS is not as robust as the NAM likely 1-3" CNJ and east of NYC
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Prints out .1-.2" for CNJ and points east of NYC
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:03 am

6z rgem trending wetter for wave 1
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2017010506_027
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2017010506_028
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:22 am

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 Rgem_asnow_neus_13
1-2" with higher with ratios. doesn't look right for LI.
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 Nam3km_asnow_neus_40
3k nam
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:38 am

any changes for tom morning?
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:12 am

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 Stormt10

NWS Upton latest amounts. Went up a little bit over LI
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:18 am

12z NAM

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 Namconus_asnow_neus_10

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:23 am

Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 586e56d8c381f

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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:25 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 586e56d8c381f
Verbatim, there is some 4-5" spots in CNJ and ELI. We have seen storms like this before were there is a sharp cut off between 3-4" and a coating-2" based on proximity to the surface low(better precip rates).

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:04 am

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 586e56d8c381f
Verbatim, there is some 4-5" spots in CNJ and ELI. We have seen storms like this before were there is a sharp cut off between 3-4" and a coating-2" based on proximity to the surface low(better precip rates).


Hey I really don't like to ask about my back yard..but I am by Sandy Hook...in that darker green....so I should hope for the 3-4 range...just curious..really want a snow day...
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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:07 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 1-3" on NAM, more in central NJ and south shore of LI

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 586e56d8c381f
Verbatim, there is some 4-5" spots in CNJ and ELI. We have seen storms like this before were there is a sharp cut off between 3-4" and a coating-2" based on proximity to the surface low(better precip rates).


Hey I really don't like to ask about my back yard..but I am by Sandy Hook...in that darker green....so I should hope for the 3-4 range...just curious..really want a snow day...
You have a high probability of seeing see around 3". It will be a tough call for schools. Heaviest snow will be falling right as they are making the decision. Further south east/ east the higher likely hood of cancellation as the system will hang on until near 10-11am, and the snowfall rates will be higher.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:14 am

12z GFS much wetter with tonight's wave
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:26 am

Anyone have total QPF from the 12z GFS for tonight?
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:33 am

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 Gfs_as10

2-4" over LI and CNJ and this is at 10:1
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:42 am

@aiannone wrote:Anyone have total QPF from the 12z GFS for tonight?


January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 Gfs_tp11

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:45 am

.3" with a temp between 20-27 yields a solid 4-4.5" of snow as per the chart I use

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_R8xVtHAV1lc/TQktarpBmiI/AAAAAAAAMvE/DnKzJEVmLpw/s1600/snow%20to%20water%20ratio%20chart.jpg
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:24 pm

Yeah another LI jackpot along withe coastal NJ !
Schools along the coast NJ will be delayed if not cancelled down there - I am hoping for a delayed at best if we can get 2" .
Alex you know from years gone by when you were in HS and you would always ask me (PM)about this - I was right 90% of the time!

Ti smnap is MM so 2.5 - 5 MM is .10 to .20 inches at 10 -1 ratio gives us 1 - 2" with 15:1 gives 1.5 - 3" and 20:1 gives us 2-4"
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 SN_000-048_0000.thumb.jpg.6d0ee0f4c84630d7c9d672f9a9921397

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:27 pm

@amugs wrote:Yeah another LI jackpot along withe coastal NJ !
Schools along the coast NJ will be delayed if not cancelled down there - I am hoping for a delayed at best if we can get 2" .
Alex you know from years gone by when you were in HS and you would always ask me (PM)about this - I was right 90% of the time!

Ti smnap is MM so 2.5 - 5 MM is .10 to .20 inches at 10 -1 ratio gives us 1 - 2" with 15:1 gives 1.5 - 3" and 20:1 gives us 2-4"
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 SN_000-048_0000.thumb.jpg.6d0ee0f4c84630d7c9d672f9a9921397

Ohh I remember, you were my source for school delays and closings predictions lol. This will prime the ground for the Sunday possibility haha.
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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:56 pm

HRRR is not too enthused for this. Has c-1" for most. I like to compare it to radar evolution to observe it's accuracy once we get within 12 hours of start time. It is pretty quick with it moving in and out in less than 6 hours dropping less than .25" precip for most.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:19 pm

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.170106T0300Z-170106T1500Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
314 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND, COASTAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH RUSH HOUR FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:00 pm

Just observational but the radar doesn't look bad for the snow already falling just from the wave itself without the coastal low even having developed. Who knows, maybe it surprises us with a nice quick shot of 2-4.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:02 pm

@billg315 wrote:Just observational but the radar doesn't look bad for the snow already falling just from the wave itself without the coastal low even having developed. Who knows, maybe it surprises us with a nice quick shot of 2-4.

RGEM

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 IMG_7366.thumb.GIF.455a338a345b80be421769156f227c20


My LSC boy thinks NYC and EWR sees 3" saying good moisture flow STJ and warm waters of hotlantic with good to great ratios - 2014-15 incoming are his thoughts. Says storm will have good saturation and timing of hourly snowfall - coldest part of the day to help enhance it.

SM FTW!!

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:05 pm

@amugs wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Just observational but the radar doesn't look bad for the snow already falling just from the wave itself without the coastal low even having developed. Who knows, maybe it surprises us with a nice quick shot of 2-4.

RGEM

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 7 IMG_7366.thumb.GIF.455a338a345b80be421769156f227c20


My LSC boy thinks NYC and EWR  sees 3" saying good moisture flow STJ and warm waters of hotlantic with good to great ratios - 2014-15 incoming are his thoughts. Says storm will have good saturation and timing of hourly snowfall - coldest part of the day to help enhance it.

I think that's entirely possible. Very large snow shield on the radar now and if the intensity could kick up even a little between 3-8 am, we already know it's going to have very cold air to work with. We shall see.

SM FTW!!

Entirely possible. Radar looks decent and we know the moisture will be hitting a lot of very cold air when it gets here. If we can just get a good burst between 3-8 am, I think it has a chance to over-perform a bit. Either way timing is bad for rush hour traffic in the AM.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:34 pm

WWA on LI for 1-4"

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:52 pm

Entire coastline is in WWA for 1-4. I posted it a page or so back, was hoisted at about 3pm.
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