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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Vinnydula Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:14 pm

No way this storm comes back north
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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:15 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Wave 1 might be the real deal

Wave 2 is done

Well the south is in for a big storm, of course the hot area gets the snow, go figure.
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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:27 pm

CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:07 am

@Snow88 wrote:CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2

thats different cuz cmc was in line with euro
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:08 am

CMC gives us snow from both systems, just offshore is 6-10 plus, this is looking good, ok I take back my banter lol
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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Armando Salvadore Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:24 am

0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:37 am

@Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:44 am

EPS (euro ensembles) for this wave. Pretty good agreement.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 586b9c7eae1a4_wave1.thumb.png.4ba300112017c73f3cbaf6e075d29242

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:46 am

Some GEFS members REALLY like this wave

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 GEFSNEPrecip00084

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 GEFSIndiesNEPrecip00084

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:46 am

Wave 1 and Wave 2 are still possible. Don't give up

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jake732 Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:06 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.


When u say when all said and done we do see snow, do u mean from 2nd waves as well?
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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:10 am

@jake732 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.


When u say when all said and done we do see snow, do u mean from 2nd waves as well?

No. I mean whether it's from wave 1 or wave 2, or both, we will see snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:19 am

Hearing SREFS look good for wave 1. 

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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:26 am

New SREFS

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 586ba648c285a

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 586ba66647c57

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 586ba671c8f07

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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:31 am

Total precip...looks like 2-4"

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 SREFNE24Precip09087

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:33 am

By the way, I have this link bookmarked though I don't use it much anymore. It converts precip to snowfall based on air temperature. It's good for a high ratio event. As example, SREFS show .25 QPF which equates to about 2.5" of snow assuming 10:1 ratio. Handy link to bookmark Smile

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/misc/Snow_water.pdf


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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:34 am

can I ask..if this were to take place would this be a daytime event or night event...just curious
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:35 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:can I ask..if this were to take place would this be a daytime event or night event...just curious

Friday morning between 4am-12pm.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:35 am

thank you!! Very Happy
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:44 am

As of the euro 00z initiation here is the energy that is going to play a role in wave 1.  As you can see 1 & 2 are still in poorly sampled areas.  12z will start good sampling but 00z tonight should really give us the answer.  

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Euro_h15
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 Euro_h14

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:34 am

I guess my one concern is the precip field on the northern frindge will likely fall as virga.

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:11 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...looks like 2-4"

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 2 SREFNE24Precip09087

.25-.33" at night those temps 3-5" snowfall IMHO!...............and yes I know that's only a 1" difference from what you posted but it might be enough for a school teacher to get another 3 day weekend. Shocked Shocked

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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:58 am

GFS getting closer with Wave 1 A near Miss one to two inches Central New Jersey Southern New Jersey eastern half of Long Island
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:19 am

@algae888 wrote:GFS getting closer with Wave 1 A near Miss one to two inches Central New Jersey Southern New Jersey eastern half of Long Island

If its not virga

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:19 am

Today's guidance, aside from the SREFS, are unimpressed with Wave 1.

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