January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Ill give it until tomorrows 12z's but I'm losing confidence in both waves for anything significant. Esp wave 1 S&E areas are very close so its worth keeping an eye out, but I'm not encouraged so far by the 12z's today.

UKIE nice for wave 1. Yay, good news.

Hopefully the Brits start teh trend with the 12Z suite here - lookslike 1-3" here

Well, the 12z EPS took a notable shift west with the second wave with the first wave still consistent from its output over the last few days. One thing i like about this first wave is the 200mb jet streak setting up over the east coast. Right rear entrance argues for a precipitation shield growth and more cyclogenensis, and it even shows a better jet streak for the second wave. Trends can be seen with a poleward western ridge as well. This has a shot at creeping NW and make it very interesting, but for now, it remains to be seen and under a shot for light accumulations.

Yes let's get a 2-4" out of this as the appetizer and help set up the big dog. This guy will help with our transient N NAO in the 50/50 region hopefully. 
Could be flying under the radar a bit imo. 
Good ana lysis Armondo.

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

NAM is rolling

@sroc4 wrote:

@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz

While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary.  Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday.  The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees.  And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:



And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow.  But a lot of them give me some doubt.



I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

@jmanley32 wrote:

@sroc4 wrote:

@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz

To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.

@nutleyblizzard wrote:

@jmanley32 wrote:

@sroc4 wrote:

@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz

To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.

your right makes sense.

Lonnie just said he is watching this wave but thinks it stays basically off shore and with most areas less than inch..

@Math23x7 wrote:While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary.  Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday.  The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees.  And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:



And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow.  But a lot of them give me some doubt.



I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

SREFs often seem to be juicy compared to other models. Not buying it one bit, especially north and west. I doubt we see anything more than flurries or a period of light snow with this first wave.

4k nam is 2 to 3 inches for the City Central Jersey and Long Island for the first wave at 10 to 1 ratios

Nam has about 1-2 inches here for Friday for the NYC area

wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Models are trending wetter with this. Ratios will be higher than 10:1. Looks like we're headed toward a 2-4" type snowfall. Will update later.

@algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap! Nice

@sroc4 wrote:

@algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap!  Nice

And that only 10:1 ratios.

@sroc4 wrote:

@sroc4 wrote:

@algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap!  Nice

And that only 10:1 ratios.  

Wouldn't it be something if wave 1 turns out to be our Godzilla? I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities if this keeps trending NW.

I'm thinking coastal areas should keep their guard up for both storms

SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.

@Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.

Coastal nj as well