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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:32 am

Ill give it until tomorrows 12z's but I'm losing confidence in both waves for anything significant. Esp wave 1 S&E areas are very close so its worth keeping an eye out, but I'm not encouraged so far by the 12z's today.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:48 am

UKIE nice for wave 1. Yay, good news.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:51 am

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.thumb.jpg.993bf19c0ac8faac2f53b0f55f7403ea

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:06 pm

Hopefully the Brits start teh trend with the 12Z suite here - lookslike 1-3" here

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Post by Armando Salvadore Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:57 pm

Well, the 12z EPS took a notable shift west with the second wave with the first wave still consistent from its output over the last few days. One thing i like about this first wave is the 200mb jet streak setting up over the east coast. Right rear entrance argues for a precipitation shield growth and more cyclogenensis, and it even shows a better jet streak for the second wave. Trends can be seen with a poleward western ridge as well. This has a shot at creeping NW and make it very interesting, but for now, it remains to be seen and under a shot for light accumulations. January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Screen16

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Ecmwf_10
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:42 pm

Yes let's get a 2-4" out of this as the appetizer and help set up the big dog. This guy will help with our transient N NAO in the 50/50 region hopefully. 
Could be flying under the radar a bit imo. 
Good ana lysis Armondo.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:28 pm

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7319.thumb.GIF.0d129f2e242ad05b50c17cb632071b29

easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:49 pm

@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7319.thumb.GIF.0d129f2e242ad05b50c17cb632071b29

easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:50 pm

NAM is rolling

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:58 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7319.thumb.GIF.0d129f2e242ad05b50c17cb632071b29

easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:13 pm

While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary.  Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday.  The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees.  And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Sreflg10

And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow.  But a lot of them give me some doubt.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Sreflg11

I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7319.thumb.GIF.0d129f2e242ad05b50c17cb632071b29

easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:51 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7319.thumb.GIF.0d129f2e242ad05b50c17cb632071b29

easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.
your right makes sense.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:56 pm

Lonnie just said he is watching this wave but thinks it stays basically off shore and with most areas less than inch..




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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:04 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary.  Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday.  The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees.  And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Sreflg10

And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow.  But a lot of them give me some doubt.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Sreflg11

I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

SREFs often seem to be juicy compared to other models. Not buying it one bit, especially north and west. I doubt we see anything more than flurries or a period of light snow with this first wave.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:10 pm

4k nam is 2 to 3 inches for the City Central Jersey and Long Island for the first wave at 10 to 1 ratios
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Post by Snow88 Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:31 pm

Nam has about 1-2 inches here for Friday for the NYC area
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:58 am

wow at the 6z 4k nam...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Nam4km_asnow_neus_21
most models trending stronger with this wave.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:55 am

Models are trending wetter with this. Ratios will be higher than 10:1. Looks like we're headed toward a 2-4" type snowfall. Will update later.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:25 am

@algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Nam4km_asnow_neus_21
most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap! Nice

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:53 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Nam4km_asnow_neus_21
most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap!  Nice

And that only 10:1 ratios.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:10 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 Nam4km_asnow_neus_21
most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap!  Nice

And that only 10:1 ratios.  
Wouldn't it be something if wave 1 turns out to be our Godzilla? I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities if this keeps trending NW.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:12 am

I'm thinking coastal areas should keep their guard up for both storms
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:10 am

SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7342.thumb.GIF.b5233862d49172a9b33fdd2e73885c7c

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:12 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 3 IMG_7342.thumb.GIF.b5233862d49172a9b33fdd2e73885c7c

Coastal nj as well
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