January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
+19
dkodgis
aiannone
Dunnzoo
skinsfan1177
hyde345
weatherwatchermom
jake732
sroc4
Armando Salvadore
Vinnydula
Snow88
Math23x7
amugs
algae888
nutleyblizzard
rb924119
jmanley32
frank 638
Frank_Wx
23 posters
Page 3 of 8
Page 3 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Ill give it until tomorrows 12z's but I'm losing confidence in both waves for anything significant. Esp wave 1 S&E areas are very close so its worth keeping an eye out, but I'm not encouraged so far by the 12z's today.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7376
Reputation : 300
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
UKIE nice for wave 1. Yay, good news.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Hopefully the Brits start teh trend with the 12Z suite here - lookslike 1-3" here
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 13590
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Well, the 12z EPS took a notable shift west with the second wave with the first wave still consistent from its output over the last few days. One thing i like about this first wave is the 200mb jet streak setting up over the east coast. Right rear entrance argues for a precipitation shield growth and more cyclogenensis, and it even shows a better jet streak for the second wave. Trends can be seen with a poleward western ridge as well. This has a shot at creeping NW and make it very interesting, but for now, it remains to be seen and under a shot for light accumulations. 



Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 171
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-12-23
Location : Springfield, NJ
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Yes let's get a 2-4" out of this as the appetizer and help set up the big dog. This guy will help with our transient N NAO in the 50/50 region hopefully.
Could be flying under the radar a bit imo.
Good ana lysis Armondo.
Could be flying under the radar a bit imo.
Good ana lysis Armondo.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 13590
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows
easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 13590
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows
At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7376
Reputation : 300
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
NAM is rolling
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7376
Reputation : 300
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows
At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.
So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19026
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary. Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday. The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees. And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:

And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow. But a lot of them give me some doubt.

I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow. But a lot of them give me some doubt.

I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2330
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.jmanley32 wrote:sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows
At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.
So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1852
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 56
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
your right makes sense.nutleyblizzard wrote:To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.jmanley32 wrote:sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows
At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.
So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19026
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Lonnie just said he is watching this wave but thinks it stays basically off shore and with most areas less than inch..
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3213
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 58
Location : Hazlet Township
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Math23x7 wrote:While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary. Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday. The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees. And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:
And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow. But a lot of them give me some doubt.
I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.
SREFs often seem to be juicy compared to other models. Not buying it one bit, especially north and west. I doubt we see anything more than flurries or a period of light snow with this first wave.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
4k nam is 2 to 3 inches for the City Central Jersey and Long Island for the first wave at 10 to 1 ratios
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5284
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 60
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Nam has about 1-2 inches here for Friday for the NYC area
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 33
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

most models trending stronger with this wave.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5284
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 60
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Models are trending wetter with this. Ratios will be higher than 10:1. Looks like we're headed toward a 2-4" type snowfall. Will update later.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...
most models trending stronger with this wave.
Holy crap! Nice
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7376
Reputation : 300
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
sroc4 wrote:algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...
most models trending stronger with this wave.
Holy crap! Nice
And that only 10:1 ratios.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 7376
Reputation : 300
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Wouldn't it be something if wave 1 turns out to be our Godzilla? I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities if this keeps trending NW.sroc4 wrote:sroc4 wrote:algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...
most models trending stronger with this wave.
Holy crap! Nice
And that only 10:1 ratios.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1852
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 56
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
I'm thinking coastal areas should keep their guard up for both storms
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4475
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 44
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.
Coastal nj as well
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4475
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 44
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Page 3 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

» January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
» Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event
» RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event
» January 16th-17th Snow Event
» Long Range Thread 9.0
» Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event
» RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event
» January 16th-17th Snow Event
» Long Range Thread 9.0
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|