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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:19 am

My concern: The EURO does not sweep through any H5 energy from wave 1 which keeps heights higher along the EC for Wave 2. That's why EURO is fairly east with Wave 1 compared to other models but west with Wave 2. So...not sure how this dynamic plays out to be honest.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:26 am

WOW

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 SREFNE24Precip09069

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:29 am

The morning news on 2 and 4 are saying just some light snow flurries...with possible more on Sat..
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:33 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:The morning news on 2 and 4 are saying just some light snow flurries...with possible more on Sat..

Media being conservative as usual until more consensus
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:14 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:WOW

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 SREFNE24Precip09069

Stated with the UKIE a few days ago that we would see a 2-4" event with this and now it looking good for this as per SREFS which have done fairly well with these systems - lets look at RGEM runs today and tonight as they hopefully will fall in line with this.
SREFS will be snowing through some cold upper air and BL temps lest remember this - ala 2014-15 type storm that .2" of liquid at 15:1 gives us a nice 3"

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 Gfs_T2m_neus_9




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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:15 am

AM rush is going to be dicy Friday morning ^^^

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:19 am

STJ is going to pump this puppy - I have a feeling we could see a top end maybe more of the 4" for some areas East. Going to be the sneaky wave.
Just hope this second wave spaces out a bit more and allows things to recover and give us an old one two

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:19 am

it seems models have been over playing the cold shots this winter. thats why suppression is the least likely solution with these two systems imo. if you remember back in December models had nyc getting to as low as mid single digits. cpk low with that cold snap was 14* I believe. it's doing same here. look at 540 blue line just 36 hours ago...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21
southern tenn. boarder. now look at todays 540 line
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9
basically cuts tenn. in half. tenn is 120 miles wide from north to south so nam model has adjusted depth of cold by 60 miles in just 36 hours. this is important because this is where these two waves low pressure should track. further north better chance of getting at least some snow into our area.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:24 am

NAM!!!
Show moderate snow into NYC Metro at hr 48 and through 51 further N this run ans juicier

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:24 am

@amugs wrote:STJ is going to pump this puppy - I have a feeling we could see a top end maybe more of the 4" for some areas East. Going to be the sneaky wave.
Just hope this second wave spaces out a bit more and allows things to recover and give us an old one two

And the fact that it is coming in at night after a cold day we should get immediate stickage! Happy Birthday to ME! cheers party

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:26 am

HR 54 still light snow in NYC metro.

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:27 am

To me based on what Frank and Sroc are saying it looks like coastal areas will get 6-8" by the time the weekend is over. If we get a stronger wave 1 (4-6") then we get a weaker wave 2 (1-3) because it robs the energy or vice-versa. What do you guys think about this hypothesis?

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:28 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:STJ is going to pump this puppy - I have a feeling we could see a top end maybe more of the 4" for some areas East. Going to be the sneaky wave.
Just hope this second wave spaces out a bit more and allows things to recover and give us an old one two

And the fact that it is coming in at night after a cold day we should get immediate stickage! Happy Birthday to ME!  cheers party

YEAAHHH FOR JANET!! Heck what are the odds it will snow on teh black hole duo's birthdays?? Mine Dec 17th had 4" and Jan 6th we could see about the same - woop woop!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:28 am

NAM looks like a general 1-3" for the area. But it trended west. So we'll see if this trend continues which would increase snowfall totals.

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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:29 am

1-3 inches on the 12z Nam for the coast

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017010412&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=585
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:30 am

syosnow94 wrote:To me based on what Frank and Sroc are saying it looks like coastal areas will get 6-8" by the time the weekend is over.  If we get a stronger wave 1 (4-6") then we get a weaker wave 2 (1-3) because it robs the energy or vice-versa.  What do you guys think about this hypothesis?

Possible, but I am not convinced both waves happen. I still think it's one or the other. Hope I am wrong though.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:30 am

@Snow88 wrote:1-3 inches on the 12z Nam for the coast

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017010412&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=585

The NAM PARA was even more impressed. Almost 6"+

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 586d06511c5bc

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:30 am

syosnow94 wrote:To me based on what Frank and Sroc are saying it looks like coastal areas will get 6-8" by the time the weekend is over.  If we get a stronger wave 1 (4-6") then we get a weaker wave 2 (1-3) because it robs the energy or vice-versa.  What do you guys think about this hypothesis?

Possibly BUT we wont know until this vort (Sat/Sun) is in a better ROAB area - land WC for us to know the vorts are still in no mans land to a degree. A few hours can make a big difference with this set up and if this stronger it can help possibly create a better 50/50 LP, block.

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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:46 am

Frank, you have the snowfall map to the para?
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:47 am

3k nam snow map most robust of all nam models...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 Nam3km_asnow_neus_52
still 12k and 4k have 1-3" across area
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:11 am

With the ratios, this will most likely be a 2-4 inch snowfall for the coast
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:19 am

rgem is only light accumm for wave 1. Just in range though

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:40 am

GFS

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 586d177b0eb62

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:42 am

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 586d17c943f0d

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:42 am

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 4 586d17f198796

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