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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:15 pm

[quote="sroc4"]
@jake732 wrote:FWD::  EPS look markedly worse than 0z.  Same issues that were discussed on the op.

Yup!![/quote

Wonderful, a step backwards the Euro better get its act together, to cave to CMC and GFS would just be eww.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:31 pm

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

I'm not sure why everyone is so upset; as Bernie states in this latest video, this was never poised to be a big storm for NYC metro. Let's hope we can squeeze a couple inches out of the next two systems and be happy with that! Smile
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:52 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

I'm not sure why everyone is so upset; as Bernie states in this latest video, this was never poised to be a big storm for NYC metro. Let's hope we can squeeze a couple inches out of the next two systems and be happy with that! Smile

Ehh, EURO at one point had a significant storm. GFS did too. The potential is there for something bigger than minor. I agree we should take what we can get. I still rather wait a little until we see better sampling of the northern stream energy. Neutral PNA / +NAO not helping matters.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

I'm not sure why everyone is so upset; as Bernie states in this latest video, this was never poised to be a big storm for NYC metro. Let's hope we can squeeze a couple inches out of the next two systems and be happy with that! Smile

Ehh, EURO at one point had a significant storm. GFS did too. The potential is there for something bigger than minor. I agree we should take what we can get. I still rather wait a little until we see better sampling of the northern stream energy. Neutral PNA / +NAO not helping matters.

I just watched it, Bernie does say no one ever said snow for NYC Boston Etc. maybe and thats a maybe a little. so I guess we see things that pro mets don't? I do not get it.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

I'm not sure why everyone is so upset; as Bernie states in this latest video, this was never poised to be a big storm for NYC metro. Let's hope we can squeeze a couple inches out of the next two systems and be happy with that! Smile

Ehh, EURO at one point had a significant storm. GFS did too. The potential is there for something bigger than minor. I agree we should take what we can get. I still rather wait a little until we see better sampling of the northern stream energy. Neutral PNA / +NAO not helping matters.

I just watched it, Bernie does say no one ever said snow for NYC Boston Etc. maybe and thats a maybe a little.  so I guess we see things that pro mets don't? I do not get it.

Thats bull donkey Jman. He was very excited for DC-Bos on yesterdays video. His back end snow threat he drew was well N&W of NYC in last nights video. He sees the same potential we all did/do. But like all of us the possibility of little to nothing was always on the table. It is def not over.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:09 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

I'm not sure why everyone is so upset; as Bernie states in this latest video, this was never poised to be a big storm for NYC metro. Let's hope we can squeeze a couple inches out of the next two systems and be happy with that! Smile

Ehh, EURO at one point had a significant storm. GFS did too. The potential is there for something bigger than minor. I agree we should take what we can get. I still rather wait a little until we see better sampling of the northern stream energy. Neutral PNA / +NAO not helping matters.

I just watched it, Bernie does say no one ever said snow for NYC Boston Etc. maybe and thats a maybe a little.  so I guess we see things that pro mets don't? I do not get it.
 
Thats bull donkey Jman.  He was very excited for DC-Bos on yesterdays video.  His back end snow threat he drew was well N&W of NYC in last nights video.  He sees the same potential we all did/do.  But like all of us the possibility of little to nothing was always on the table.  It is def not over.  
Don't yell at me Bernie said it! T-shirt pointing at Bernie...LOL I hope it isn't over. And your right he did draw a potential line that was far N/W so why he trying to back off like he never said that. I respect the guy but thats kinda odd.
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:17 pm

Wow this reminds me of the Dec blizzard of 2010 and last year blizzard I hate to ask this stupid question will we see any snow out if this storm for the weekend

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:38 pm

Three days before the 2010 Boxing Day blizzard, we had an NAO reading of -1.2 and an AO reading of -3.6(!) and three days before the Blizzard last year, we had an NAO reading of -0.3 and an AO reading of -1.0. As of today, we have an NAO of -0.2 and an AO of +0.3. The AO is not negative like it was leading up to those two events. Yes we technically have a -NAO but the overall teleconnections at the moment don't sound as juicy as they did for the aforementioned blizzards.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:42 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Wow this reminds me of the Dec blizzard of 2010 and last year blizzard I hate to ask this stupid question will we see any snow out if this storm  for the weekend
I remember not even having a clue of any snow in the 2010 post xmas snowstorm. I saw it on TV in VT and was like wha!!!
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:55 pm

Just seen Lee golgberg forecast he was saying for Saturday the city Long Island and Coastal New Jersey could see a period of snow for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night if we don't get a Godzilla I will be happy with a 3 to 6 inch range

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:57 pm

18z GFS was very close....

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:59 pm

We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now
This is true. Any change on the piece of energy coming out of the Canadian Prairies could adjust the whole evolution of the system. We should have a fully sampled western piece by 0z tonight.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:01 pm

Wow talk about a last seconder. If it does end up b a Godzilla basically 0 time for dot to dust off their trucks.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:04 pm

I cannot believe per gfs that obx and west is go see over a foot of snow. When was the last time that happened? Cape cod gets the brush of ccb very heavy precip offshore it needs to come pretty far west to get a really good hit.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

I thought today would be the day of true sampling for the models; why is it pushed back two days?


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:08 pm

I said earlier it would b pushed back in response to jake saying it's over. It must have slowed down? Isn't that a good thing spacing wise?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:22 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

I thought today would be the day of true sampling for the models; why is it pushed back two days?

Today is the Pacific energy. The Canadian energy (check 1st post of this thread) won't be properly sampled until 00z Friday but I think 12z Friday models should have a better idea.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:30 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

I thought today would be the day of true sampling for the models; why is it pushed back two days?

I believe they were talking about Friday's event.. Sunday is still 4 days away... for now, I'm sticking with the SR models for Friday, waiting to see model runs tomorrow for Sunday. Just way too busy to model hug......

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

I thought today would be the day of true sampling for the models; why is it pushed back two days?

Today is the Pacific energy. The Canadian energy (check 1st post of this thread) won't be properly sampled until 00z Friday but I think 12z Friday models should have a better idea.

Gotcha, thanks. Wouldn't it be something if the GFS starts trending back toward that dream solution it had days ago and the EURO gets flatter and flatter. Those two have the most tumultuous relationship! shout
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:42 pm

Frank, it would indeed be interesting if there is a shift in the snow map for this weekend.

PS: Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you???

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:13 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

I thought today would be the day of true sampling for the models; why is it pushed back two days?

I believe they were talking about Friday's event.. Sunday is still 4 days away... for now, I'm sticking with the SR models for Friday, waiting to see model runs tomorrow for Sunday. Just way too busy to model hug......

Zoo absolutely - the Polar Vort is way out in no mans land Arctic circle region- if you decide to throw in the towel at this stage you need to learn about pattern recognition and learn the virtue of patience

From a buddy on another forum who is personal friends with Joe B - he spoke to him an hour ago
JB says he thinks wave 2 will phase in and come .

He was always on wave 1 and orig thought it would phase in , it may be doing just that .

Says wave 2 is alive .


Last edited by amugs on Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:30 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We won't know anything until Friday 12z runs. The sampling is just too weak on models right now

I thought today would be the day of true sampling for the models; why is it pushed back two days?

I believe they were talking about Friday's event.. Sunday is still 4 days away... for now, I'm sticking with the SR models for Friday, waiting to see model runs tomorrow for Sunday. Just way too busy to model hug......

Zoo absolutely - the Polar Vort is way out in no mans land Arctic circle region- if you decide to throw in the towel at this stage you need to learn about pattern recognition and learn the virtue of patience

From a buddy on another forum who is personal friends with Joe B - he spoke to him an hour
JB says he thinks wave 2 will phase in and come .

He was always on wave 1 and orig thought it would phase in , it may be doing just that .

Says wave 2 is alive .

Hope so mugs, trying decipher your big finger typing LOL but JB does love to wish cast big storms, seen it before but I will put only hope on it for now till we see the true sampling of it come Fri. BTW why are there so few sites in Canada? Wouldnt you think it would be good for them and us to have more for forecasting?
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:00 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 5 Gfs_uv10
@Frank_Wx wrote:18z GFS was very close....
Yes that was close to a phase Frank. Instead of getting picked up and phasing with the northern stream, it gets pushed OTS. Small nuances such as slower southern vort or faster northern jet will have big implications. Despite the bad runs of 12z, we can't throw in the towel yet. More surprises could still be in store for us. Onto the Oz runs!
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:25 pm

Nice shift West from 12Z this afternoon NAVGEM

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 5 Nvg10_prp_084.namer.thumb.gif.d27131d14d7c2cd24e1723469cda8620

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