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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:34 pm

So I close we literally need a 100 to 150 mile shift west and we get it
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:51 pm

I am noticing the weaker / less amplified version of Wave 1 leads to a storm track closer to the coast for Wave 2. This goes back to what I said in my write-up. A weaker wave 1 keeps heights higher along the EC which allows the southern energy to come north more. We need the southern energy to gain as much latitude as possible so it has a higher chance of phasing with the northern stream energy. So if you're looking for positive trends, then the fact Wave 1 is looking weaker is a good thing for Wave 2.


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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:21 pm

The SREFS appear west based on spread

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Sref_namer_066_mslp.thumb.gif.14982153418ad246365c742daa439938

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The SREFS show a significant snowstorm Saturday night. WAY WEST

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Sref_namer_066_mslp.thumb.gif.14982153418ad246365c742daa439938

I love you man LOL, I know its only one map, lets hope everything starts this as a trend next few days and we get wolloped.  How do you read this map, what does the orange 8-10 mean?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:27 pm

Jon, I edited my post. It's just the mean SLP spread. As we saw from the plumes there is one extreme member which makes it look like SREFS are west. But it's just 1 member skewing everything. False alarm.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:29 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Jon, I edited my post. It's just the mean SLP spread. As we saw from the plumes there is one extreme member which makes it look like SREFS are west. But it's just 1 member skewing everything. False alarm.
So sref are not west? No good news on that model? I did not realize one could push everything so far in one direction.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:38 pm

I still consider them west. Just not a significant storm. Some members show a moderate hit still. Good run.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I still consider them west. Just not a significant storm. Some members show a moderate hit still. Good run.
 Not sig yet anyways hopefully...moderate is a great start from where we have been.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:49 pm

18z NAM also looks slightly west from last run and a bit stronger. Frank you mentioned the 250mb jet. I noticed on the NAM the strongest winds are now nearly offshore and not up by canada, is that bad?
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:24 pm

My silence is cautious optimism. I'll be on again in the morning.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:25 pm

Frank. God bless you brother. It's why your the leader. Keeping the board going. Just for the record it's not over.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:26 pm

0z GFS just initialized.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:53 pm

0z GFS way east Sad
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:54 pm

The 00z GFS has no phase. Storm well east.

The upper level pattern does not want to come together it seems. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:08 pm

00z GGEM is west. Might scrape the coast.


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Post by jrollins628 Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:24 pm

Okay with Wave 2, i am officially thinking that this is not going to come up the coast Sad I know that the a lot of people are thinking that winter is not going to be a great one especially after the 10th when we go back to torchville. I do have a question for Frank, can you explain why we may end up warm for the rest of the month and what do you think about the reminder of the month into February? It sucks that a lot of people may BUST their forecasts there had to have been something no one saw coming...

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Post by jrollins628 Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:24 pm

remainder

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z GFS has no phase. Storm well east.

The upper level pattern does not want to come together it seems. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I'm hearing it actually trended better aloft though? Any merit to this?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:33 pm

@jrollins628 wrote:Okay with Wave 2, i am officially thinking that this is not going to come up the coast Sad I know that the a lot of people are thinking that winter is not going to be a great one especially after the 10th when we go back to torchville. I do have a question for Frank, can you explain why we may end up warm for the rest of the month and what do you think about the reminder of the month into February? It sucks that a lot of people may BUST their forecasts there had to have been something no one saw coming...

My forecast called for average temps and snowfall. It's quite possible I bust on both calls, especially temps, but there's still lots of winter to go. I'll update the long range over the weekend. At this time, focus remainson wave 2. I've said repeatedly we have to wait until Friday morning when the upper energy is better sampled. A few mile shifts in either direction has big implications on the outcome.

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Post by jrollins628 Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:35 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jrollins628 wrote:Okay with Wave 2, i am officially thinking that this is not going to come up the coast Sad I know that the a lot of people are thinking that winter is not going to be a great one especially after the 10th when we go back to torchville. I do have a question for Frank, can you explain why we may end up warm for the rest of the month and what do you think about the reminder of the month into February? It sucks that a lot of people may BUST their forecasts there had to have been something no one saw coming...

My forecast called for average temps and snowfall. It's quite possible I bust on both calls, especially temps, but there's still lots of winter to go. I'll update the long range over the weekend. At this time, focus remainson wave 2. I've said repeatedly we have to wait until Friday morning when the upper energy is better sampled. A few mile shifts in either direction has big implications on the outcome.

okay thanks for the response Smile!!!

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:43 am

significant west jump on the nam. snow to coastal nj and LI...
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20
06z
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22
00z
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_neus_25
total snowfall both waves
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:45 am

4k nam snow into the city...
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_44
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:26 am

compare 6z rgem with 00z cmc at same time frame , rgem looks to be west with precip shield...
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 I_nw_EST_2017010506_048
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 I_nw_EST_2017010500_054
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:28 am

nws disco ...
Dry Friday night into the first part of Saturday as high pressure
noses in to the north. Then attention turns to low pressure
developing along the Southeast coast on Saturday and moving
northeast. The system is just coming onshore the West Coast, so
there is now better raob sampling of its associated mass fields.
Operational model consensus has little to no accumulation, but with
the event still 60-72 hours out, even a modest 50-mile jog NW of
model forecast, as often happens with these types of systems, could
still mean a 1-3" accumulation for eastern Long Island and SE CT,
and the 03Z SREF mean suggests this possibility. The forecast will
reflect potential for half that much, with slight chance PoP as far
west as NYC metro and western CT, and 30-40 PoP for Suffolk and
Middlesex/New London
. This also maintains continuity with the
previous forecast. Lows during this time will be in the teens to
lower 20s, with highs on Sat from the 20s to lower 30s.

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:52 am

gfs is west too snow into extreme south coastal jersey and e/LI
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11
stronger southern stream by about 3mb. so close!
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