January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Frank_Wx wrote:18z GFS was very close....

Yes that was close to a phase Frank. Instead of getting picked up and phasing with the northern stream, it gets pushed OTS. Small nuances such as slower southern vort or faster northern jet will have big implications. Despite the bad runs of 12z, we can't throw in the towel yet. More surprises could still be in store for us. Onto the Oz runs!

Nice shift West from 12Z this afternoon NAVGEM

So I close we literally need a 100 to 150 mile shift west and we get it

I am noticing the weaker / less amplified version of Wave 1 leads to a storm track closer to the coast for Wave 2. This goes back to what I said in my write-up. A weaker wave 1 keeps heights higher along the EC which allows the southern energy to come north more. We need the southern energy to gain as much latitude as possible so it has a higher chance of phasing with the northern stream energy. So if you're looking for positive trends, then the fact Wave 1 is looking weaker is a good thing for Wave 2.

The SREFS appear west based on spread

Frank_Wx wrote:The SREFS show a significant snowstorm Saturday night. WAY WEST

I love you man LOL, I know its only one map, lets hope everything starts this as a trend next few days and we get wolloped.  How do you read this map, what does the orange 8-10 mean?

Jon, I edited my post. It's just the mean SLP spread. As we saw from the plumes there is one extreme member which makes it look like SREFS are west. But it's just 1 member skewing everything. False alarm.

Frank_Wx wrote:Jon, I edited my post. It's just the mean SLP spread. As we saw from the plumes there is one extreme member which makes it look like SREFS are west. But it's just 1 member skewing everything. False alarm.

So sref are not west? No good news on that model? I did not realize one could push everything so far in one direction.

I still consider them west. Just not a significant storm. Some members show a moderate hit still. Good run.

Frank_Wx wrote:I still consider them west. Just not a significant storm. Some members show a moderate hit still. Good run.

 Not sig yet anyways hopefully...moderate is a great start from where we have been.

18z NAM also looks slightly west from last run and a bit stronger. Frank you mentioned the 250mb jet. I noticed on the NAM the strongest winds are now nearly offshore and not up by canada, is that bad?

My silence is cautious optimism. I'll be on again in the morning.

Frank. God bless you brother. It's why your the leader. Keeping the board going. Just for the record it's not over.

0z GFS just initialized.

0z GFS way east

The 00z GFS has no phase. Storm well east.

The upper level pattern does not want to come together it seems. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

00z GGEM is west. Might scrape the coast.

Okay with Wave 2, i am officially thinking that this is not going to come up the coast I know that the a lot of people are thinking that winter is not going to be a great one especially after the 10th when we go back to torchville. I do have a question for Frank, can you explain why we may end up warm for the rest of the month and what do you think about the reminder of the month into February? It sucks that a lot of people may BUST their forecasts there had to have been something no one saw coming...

remainder

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z GFS has no phase. Storm well east.

The upper level pattern does not want to come together it seems. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I'm hearing it actually trended better aloft though? Any merit to this?

jrollins628 wrote:Okay with Wave 2, i am officially thinking that this is not going to come up the coast I know that the a lot of people are thinking that winter is not going to be a great one especially after the 10th when we go back to torchville. I do have a question for Frank, can you explain why we may end up warm for the rest of the month and what do you think about the reminder of the month into February? It sucks that a lot of people may BUST their forecasts there had to have been something no one saw coming...

My forecast called for average temps and snowfall. It's quite possible I bust on both calls, especially temps, but there's still lots of winter to go. I'll update the long range over the weekend. At this time, focus remainson wave 2. I've said repeatedly we have to wait until Friday morning when the upper energy is better sampled. A few mile shifts in either direction has big implications on the outcome.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jrollins628 wrote:Okay with Wave 2, i am officially thinking that this is not going to come up the coast I know that the a lot of people are thinking that winter is not going to be a great one especially after the 10th when we go back to torchville. I do have a question for Frank, can you explain why we may end up warm for the rest of the month and what do you think about the reminder of the month into February? It sucks that a lot of people may BUST their forecasts there had to have been something no one saw coming...

My forecast called for average temps and snowfall. It's quite possible I bust on both calls, especially temps, but there's still lots of winter to go. I'll update the long range over the weekend. At this time, focus remainson wave 2. I've said repeatedly we have to wait until Friday morning when the upper energy is better sampled. A few mile shifts in either direction has big implications on the outcome.

okay thanks for the response !!!

significant west jump on the nam. snow to coastal nj and LI...

06z

00z

total snowfall both waves

4k nam snow into the city...

compare 6z rgem with 00z cmc at same time frame , rgem looks to be west with precip shield...

nws disco ...
Dry Friday night into the first part of Saturday as high pressure
noses in to the north. Then attention turns to low pressure
developing along the Southeast coast on Saturday and moving
northeast. The system is just coming onshore the West Coast, so
there is now better raob sampling of its associated mass fields.
Operational model consensus has little to no accumulation, but with
the event still 60-72 hours out, even a modest 50-mile jog NW of
model forecast, as often happens with these types of systems, could
still mean a 1-3" accumulation for eastern Long Island and SE CT,
and the 03Z SREF mean suggests this possibility. The forecast will
reflect potential for half that much, with slight chance PoP as far
west as NYC metro and western CT, and 30-40 PoP for Suffolk and
Middlesex/New London. This also maintains continuity with the
previous forecast. Lows during this time will be in the teens to
lower 20s, with highs on Sat from the 20s to lower 30s.

gfs is west too snow into extreme south coastal jersey and e/LI


stronger southern stream by about 3mb. so close!