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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:51 am

Between Scott and I you all should have a fairly good idea of what needs to happen in order for this storm to track close to the coast to give us an area-wide snowstorm. Now let's make it happen.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:02 am

We are indeed ready. Thank you to everyone for the time that they put into this site, allowing some of us who are not versed in meteorology but are supremely fascinated by it to better understand what is happening.

That said, I am thoroughly prepared in a geeky "Red Five standing by" sort of way. Saying some prayers for a 50-100 mile shift to the west.

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:06 am

FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:10 am

syosnow94 wrote:FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!

They are waiting for more of a consensus. Being a public site I dont blame them and OTS is still on the table.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:12 am

@sroc4 wrote:This is simple.  Who do you believe.  Below I have both the GFS and the Euro side by side...GFS left Euro right both valid for 18z Jan 7th.  There are a few things to point out.  
1) The S energy on the Euro is even stronger and more consolidated in the base of the trough when compared to yest 12z
2) The S energy on the GFS in the base of the trough has trended stronger overnight as well...which is good.
3) The S energy on the GFS; however, is further east then the Euro at this time frame.  (A known progressive bias for the model).  
4) I have highlighted the 540line with a black line on both models.  Notice the GFS has it running through the lower HV; whereas, the euro has it way up in mid NY state.  
5) If you watched Bernie Rayno's video last night he noted the importance of the energy to the N circled.  Its this energy that in essence is what either allows room for it to come up or pushes it offshore.  He noted it needs to trend a little slower and remain behind the S energy in order to allow the heights to raise out in front of the system allowing it to come up.  As you can see both models have the S energy out in front of the N energy.  Important point.  However, notice the GFS has stray vorticity pressing down into the E GL relative to the Euro.  It remains stronger and more consolidated within the circled area.  

The area just S of this 540 line I highlighted is the area of confluence (area where the wind fields from the N and S branches converge at 500mb) As you are prob aware convergence of air aloft leads to air sinking; therefore, the precip shield will not make it beyond the confluent zone.  The further N&W it is, the further N&W the precip shield can make it.    

So the question is which model do you believe?  For me with a known progressive bias of the GFS with S branch energy I have to believe over the next 3-4 runs we will see the energy in the S branch cont top consolidate like the euro shows; consequently the height field and confluent zone "should" lift N&W out ahead of the system more like the euro on consequent GFS runs.  However; this is not a lock.  The question is which is handling all these s/w better?  The EPS means and trends supports the Euro Op, but the GEFS mean supports the GFS Op.  We shall see.   I will show the EPS updates in a different box.  

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 Euro_g10


Here is Bernie Rayno's morning update time stamped 6:00am. My post is time stamped at 6:19am. I swear on my kids I did not watch this before my post.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm-morning-update/2430839568001

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:19 am

syosnow94 wrote:FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!
james I think you're mistaken. here is there experimental forecast and official forecast for wave one....
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 SnowProbGE2
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 StormTotalSnowWeb1
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 SnowAmt90Prcntl
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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:22 am

These waves have been super interesting...Let's see what happens as the energy is sampled tonight!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:24 am

Mt Holly with a discussion that echoes our thoughts with regards to the upper level energy:

Mt. Holly wrote:For Saturday and Sunday...A significant trough slides across the
Great Lakes region Saturday, while within the split flow there is
energy moving across the southern states. The latter will be
tracking along a baroclinic zone with low pressure moving off the
Southeast U.S. coast early Saturday. Given the split flow the model
guidance has shown varying solutions, and the key appears to be the
timing of the two main pieces of energy. If the southern system can
stay ahead of the northern one, more of a turn northward would occur.
This would pull the precipitation shield more north and west, like
the 00z ECMWF shows. If the southern feature is weaker, then the
surface low shifts more offshore and the precipitation shield is not
as far north and west. Taking a look at the 500 MB pattern, this
system has a chance, with even the more offshore GFS showing
potential to back closer to the coast if the southern short wave can
sharpen a bit. We will still run with some low chance PoPs closer to
the coast on Saturday given at least some potential for a period of
snow. This remains a low confidence forecast given the pieces/flow
involved, however there is the potential for a snow shield to
overspread at least our southern and eastern areas for a time
Saturday.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:26 am

@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!
james I think you're mistaken. here is there experimental forecast and official forecast for wave one....
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 SnowProbGE2
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 StormTotalSnowWeb1
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 SnowAmt90Prcntl

good morning, can I ask how to find those maps for my area? TIA
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:27 am

syosnow94 wrote:FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!

As Hans Solo said to C3PO as he tried to navigate an asteroid field, "Never tell me the odds"
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:38 am

@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!
james I think you're mistaken. here is there experimental forecast and official forecast for wave one....
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 SnowProbGE2
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 StormTotalSnowWeb1
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 SnowAmt90Prcntl

Cool graphic. That's not what I was looking at but ok. Still not great though.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:54 am



good morning, can I ask how to find those maps for my area? TIA[/quote]

go to this website and click on winter weather icon..
http://www.weather.gov/okx/
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:00 am

gfs went from this for wave one
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
to this in 36 hours
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10
so very possible same can happen for wave 2.
notice how it corrected on its progressive bias as we got closer to the event
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:20 am

@algae888 wrote:

good morning, can I ask how to find those maps for my area? TIA

go to this website and click on winter weather icon..
http://www.weather.gov/okx/[/quote]

thank you!! was on the site earlier and did not see that...have a great day!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:32 am

12z NAM is stronger with the Pacific (southern) energy

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:35 am

Current 500 hPa look. Energy out west is almost on shore.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1483540373206

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:37 am

Yes and the Jet streak and STJ is pumping in the South- if we can get interaction down there then we we see a very juicy storm IMO. 0Z runs should be interesting to see. I really like this look and is it me or has it slowed down a bit? If so this would be YUUGGGEEE for spacing purposes!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:39 am

@Quietace wrote:Current 500 hPa look. Energy out west is almost on shore.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1483540373206

The Pacific energy, yes. The northern stream energy is not modeled to enter the CONUS until late Friday :0

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:44 am

From twitter

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 Img_4110

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:54 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Current 500 hPa look. Energy out west is almost on shore.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1483540373206

The Pacific energy, yes. The northern stream energy is not modeled to enter the CONUS until late Friday :0
We could increase our forecasting accuracy by a tremendous amount, if we increased our observation network in Canada. Cant do much over the ocean except increase the number of buoys add recon flights.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:57 am

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Current 500 hPa look. Energy out west is almost on shore.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1483540373206

The Pacific energy, yes. The northern stream energy is not modeled to enter the CONUS until late Friday :0
We could increase our forecasting accuracy by a tremendous amount, if we increased our observation network in Canada. Cant do much over the ocean except increase the number of buoys add recon flights.

Pass it through Congress Ryan.


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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:59 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Current 500 hPa look. Energy out west is almost on shore.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1483540373206

The Pacific energy, yes. The northern stream energy is not modeled to enter the CONUS until late Friday :0
We could increase our forecasting accuracy by a tremendous amount, if we increased our observation network in Canada. Cant do much over the ocean except increase the number of buoys add recon flights.

Pass it through Congress Ryan.

Maybe one day facepalm

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:21 am

Something interesting regarding Euro EPS trends, yesterday at 12z there were 11/50 members more aggressive NW of the operational Euro run, last night 00z there were 13 more aggressive than the already farther NW shift of the 00z Euro operational run:

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 Eps211
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 2 Eps311

Not sure that matters much or will matter much, but the Euro has been heading in the more aggressive direction consistently at least, whether it's right or not remains to be seen.
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:23 am

@Quietace wrote:Current 500 hPa look. Energy out west is almost on shore.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb.gif?1483540373206

I haven't seen anything official from NCEP, but I'd assume this will be ingested into 18z data and beyond?
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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:45 am

when was the last time the EURO stood alone from every other model and it turned out the euro was right?
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