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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:13 pm

Ya know what's cool? NAM might be slightly less amplified with the western ridge. But since it's southern s/w is stronger than 18z, that's all we really needed for heights to respond along EC. Goes to show what an STJ can do.

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:14 pm

@aiannone wrote:Up to hour 36, Nam's typical stopping point. Now we wait 15min for hour 39 lol

You're ahead of me I'm at 33. Lol
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:16 pm

I kinda like the look of hr 36
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:17 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 586efe227422b

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:18 pm

Beautiful orientation here coming N
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 39.thumb.PNG.5c9f42c1ed6fe391ba451ca7f397ca79

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:18 pm

I got this feeling it's coming!!! I'm going to have to tell work to get ready
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:19 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Nam_ms12

18z same hour for comparison....west
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:20 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Nam_ms13

0z!!!!!
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Well, damn.

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 586efb086ee21


January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Baby_o10
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:20 pm

SHarp trough that looks to be NEG tilt to it - the precip field will be expansive - dual jet and STJ coming up from GOM - woza

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 US3000036

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:21 pm

The trend aloft is personally more important than what we see at the surface. If we had slightly more interaction with northern stream, this would have shown a bigger result. Especially for those N&W of I-95. Considering it's the NAM, and what it did with the southern s/w and 250mb jet streak, I characterize this run as a win.

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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:23 pm

the nam shows precip falling on jersey shore for 9 hours, my friends thats no way near enough for a heavy snowfall. plz someone respond as this is one thing thats driving me nuts
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:24 pm

@jake732 wrote:the nam shows precip falling on jersey shore for 9 hours, my friends thats no way near enough for a heavy snowfall. plz someone respond as this is one thing thats driving me nuts

You need to relax. We're looking for trends at the 500mb level. Not what happens at the surface. In fact, I would now raise probability of accumulating snow from 30 to 50%.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:26 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Namconus_asnow_neus_16

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Namconus_asnow_neus_16
didn't add but a inch or so on top of tonight for me but tyhe higher amounts did trend west, but as you said 500mb is what we are looking for. Dynamics and amounts will be high if this comes in right.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:29 pm

Idk if I'm going to be able to do this chat because of internet issues, but if I can't I will be following intermittently on mobile. However, I am still not on board with this system. I was going to do a video but I can't now.....THANKS INTERNET Mad

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:29 pm

@jake732 wrote:the nam shows precip falling on jersey shore for 9 hours, my friends thats no way near enough for a heavy snowfall. plz someone respond as this is one thing thats driving me nuts
I don't necessarily agree. Many big storms only last 9-12 hours. In fact I often comment on here about how models sometimes exaggerate duration of events because these storms don't often last more than 12 hours. Think of it this way: if you have one hour of light snow on either end; then two hours of moderate snow, with three hours of heavy 1-2" per hour snow in the middle you're probably getting 7" or more.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:30 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Idk if I'm going to be able to do this chat because of internet issues, but if I can't I will be following intermittently on mobile. However, I am still not on board with this system. I was going to do a video but I can't now.....THANKS INTERNET Mad

Dial up internet went out of style 10 years ago

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Namconus_asnow_neus_16

Worse than 18z. I don't get it. SREF's and NAM are growing further apart in QPF
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:30 pm

The totals also increased in the south im assuming suggesting a stronger system?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:30 pm

The Hi Res NAM is coming in with a GODZILLA

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:32 pm

HI RES NAM trying to track to BM. Look at precip shield

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_39

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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The Hi Res NAM is coming in with a GODZILLA

didnt this show a godzilla earlier as well?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:34 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Namconus_asnow_neus_16

Worse than 18z. I don't get it. SREF's and NAM are growing further apart in QPF

not true, basically same west of city but the higher amounts did spread west quite a bit.

18z

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Namcon10
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:HI RES NAM trying to track to BM. Look at precip shield

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 15 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_39

High Res NAM is trending in the Twitter weather world right now. People are calling it a major hit for I-95...
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