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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:53 am

LOVE the changes on the 12z GFS aloft for Wave 2. Better northern stream, ridge, and heights along the EC. Where it's still making progress is the southern stream energy. It's still shredding it out. Considering the GFS has a bias to be a northern stream model, I am not concerned about its depiction of the southern stream.There is also a sick sub tropical jet stream screaming through the south. One would think that will keep the southern s/w potent.

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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:00 am

frank, gfs is till way south and east... do u think time is running out or whoo cares about the gfs
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:05 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:LOVE the changes on the 12z GFS aloft for Wave 2. Better northern stream, ridge, and heights along the EC. Where it's still making progress is the southern stream energy. It's still shredding it out. Considering the GFS has a bias to be a northern stream model, I am not concerned about its depiction of the southern stream.There is also a sick sub tropical jet stream screaming through the south. One would think that will keep the southern s/w potent.

Agree... could be an epic bias issue here. GFS has a profound tendency to string out energy in the southern stream.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:06 am

@Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:LOVE the changes on the 12z GFS aloft for Wave 2. Better northern stream, ridge, and heights along the EC. Where it's still making progress is the southern stream energy. It's still shredding it out. Considering the GFS has a bias to be a northern stream model, I am not concerned about its depiction of the southern stream.There is also a sick sub tropical jet stream screaming through the south. One would think that will keep the southern s/w potent.

Agree... could be an epic bias issue here. GFS has a profound tendency to string out energy in the southern stream.

bananadude

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:17 am

12z Canadian skirts the coast. West of 00z run. Nice trend.

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:25 am

CMC also largely misses farther south with the PJ s/w Thursday night... farthest south of all guidance
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:30 am

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 3 Gem_z510
12z CMC is west!!! Nice trends. Huge EURO run awaits!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:20 pm

Not bantering here but what's with wave 2 slamming cape and parts ma with like a leftover hooked piece of heavy precip? That's not fair lol. Hopefully keeps looking better and better.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:22 pm

I'm feeling quite optimistic on the euro the way the other models have been going.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Not bantering here but what's with wave 2 slamming cape and parts ma with like a leftover hooked piece of heavy precip? That's not fair lol. Hopefully keeps looking better and better.

Thats the CCB band Jman. Anyone else impatiently waiting for the euro to initiate? A little over 15mins

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I'm feeling quite optimistic on the euro the way the other models have been going.
Any word on UKIE???
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:26 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Thats the CCB band Jman.  Anyone else impatiently waiting for the euro to initiate?  A little over 15mins

ME!
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:27 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Not bantering here but what's with wave 2 slamming cape and parts ma with like a leftover hooked piece of heavy precip? That's not fair lol. Hopefully keeps looking better and better.

Thats the CCB band Jman.  Anyone else impatiently waiting for the euro to initiate?  A little over 15mins

Chomping at the bit here rabbit
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:32 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 3 Img_1811
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:35 pm

So far I am not feeling so hot about wave 2 after seeing the NAVGEM, UKMET, and JMA shift east. Not as far east as the GFS, but it could be the start of a trend. We'll find out soon from the EURO. Keep in mind the northern piece of energy will not be in a well-sampled area in Canada until Friday. So whatever models show today I suggest not taking them too seriously whether good or bad.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:35 pm


Yea, mentioned this too.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:37 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I'm feeling quite optimistic on the euro the way the other models have been going.
Any word on UKIE???
It goes from St Augustine Florida 1013 Mb - 995 MB just east of Nova Scotia. At our 72 precip is into Central virginia. looks like we would get brushed by it something similar to the Canadian
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:48 pm

Euro has initialized!
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:59 pm

out to30 not much changed from 00z at H5

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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:03 pm

hearing on other boards that not better
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:05 pm

precip amts for QPF went down for N&W zones for wave 1

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:06 pm

EURO:

I really don't like anything this run. Every feature took a step back. Ridge, northern stream, southern stream, and heights along EC.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:07 pm

Ugg of course. Let's hope the sampling is still not right. I want tgat ccb band lol
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:07 pm

@sroc4 wrote:precip amts for QPF went down for N&W zones for wave 1

For wave 1 it actually looks identical to the 0z run
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO:

I really don't like anything this run. Every feature took a step back. Ridge, northern stream, southern stream, and heights along EC.
correct me if I'm wrong but 5 days out a step back can easily correct and go in our favor. Now if it was 1 or 2 days I'd throw in towel.
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